Potential in the GOM?

[lrak]

Same down here, lots of rain inland but along the coast just lite sprinkles in the morning if we're lucky, come on GOM wave move onshore!

Oh and the little spin I'm talking about is just south of this city http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMMT.html located down on the SW side of the beginning of the Yucatan Peninsula.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

It sure looks like its spinning using the visible satellite.

[Stratosphere747]

Your eyes are probably playing tricks on you. There is no spinning at the surface on the visible ghc site.

About the only thing spinning out there is the very weak ULL in the WGOM devoid of any real convection.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Putting out outflow boundaries.

BTW, use a big visible loop, so you can see full detail.


This should keep rain chances down tomorrow, which I'd appreciate for lawn mowing, but I've got 'Comedy Defensive Driving' because of a speeding ticket.

[Sanibel]

There was clear spinning, as Irak noted, down by BOC. It was probably a synoptic eddy connected to the wave. There's more signs of persistence off NW Yucatan but it's so weak it isn't worth pointing out.

[lrak]

I know, I know, LOL but now I see a little spin just off the coast from Veracruz? I'll look for an optometrist right after this post

[dixiebreeze]

I'm beginning to think the GOM is only going to have "potential" all summer.

[deltadog03]

It appears that there will be atleast a vortmax or possibly a weak wave that comes into the central GOM this upcoming week. Should atleast give us some very nice rain chances across the gom states.

[KWT]

Maybe Dixie but we only need the shear to ease up for a little while and under those warm SST's in the gulf of Mexico something could develop eventually its just a wait and see game.

Deltadog, who knows we will have to watch I suppose!

[Stratosphere747]

I'm beginning to think the GOM is only going to have "potential" all summer.

This is constructive criticism and nothing personal...

If you solely look for convection or post a image from the GOM with a cluster of "ominous" looking storms and believe that it has "potential" it will continue to skew what is really out there.

You might do this already but check your local area AFD discos and of course the NHC discos (not the TWO's) for little hints on what is out there. Many times you will realize that what looks like "potential" has little if any at all....

[deltadog03]

actually shear looks to drop off. GFS actually hints at an upper level ridge right on top of where that wave is suppose to be.

[lrak]

I keep checking that little blob NE of Veracruz and its still there and hasn't collapsed yet. Either my head or that little blob is spinning abit Also the optometrists said my eyes are ok so off to the psychiatrist for a visit, I think I've got "-removed- syndrome" and I can't stop it w/o help. You guys know of any support groups for people I disagree with like me?

Karl

[HURAKAN]

[NDG]

If not this time maybe next weekend could be interesting as Euro has been persistent in its runs of having pressures below 1010 mb in the BOC, with good UL conditions tracking toward lower TX coast.

[lrak]

Thanks for the graphic NDG, the Euro and GFS has gained the trust from this group since I've been around and your graphic is abit scary. That far out though is not too reliable eh? I just want some rain, I can see brown grass outside my window plus towering thunderheads over the Gulf! The storms just cruise "right" by Corpus Christi or die out just to our south and reform inland leaving the coast bone dry Oh and another reason your graphic is scary is because I don't know how to read it!

Also that complex is finally "blobbing out."

[lrak]

Ok how bout now, check out the little spin about 200 miles SSW of Tampico. Tampico has an East wind and Veracruz has a West wind. Pressures are about 29.93 but I remember reading earlier that even higher pressures were recorded in a blob prior to real development. The shear has really let up and the rotation seems to be for real in the upper layers, and I think it may be trying to work down based on ocular analysis. I can't find any other areas of interest except over on the Pacific side, by the way the EPAC (not sure what that stands for had better have a storm come July 22nd because I'll be on the Pacific side crusin waves.

The weather down there has started a nice East fetch, check out S. Padre

[ronjon]

The GFS has been hinting at development in either the central or western GOM for next weekend. Today's 00Z CMC has joined the 06Z GFS in developing a tropical cyclone in the western GOM offshore of TX. This just happens to coincide with the MJO pulse expected at that time. Combined with what the models are showing in the east Atlantic, it might get busy in the tropics over the next two weeks.

[ronjon]

From HPC this morning:

AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIE DOWN INLAND OF THE GULF COAST
THIS PERIOD...WITH VARIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A
POSSIBLE CLOSED UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE WESTERN GULF COAST NEXT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON THE 06Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN...THIS GENERATED A
NON-FRONTAL SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EITHER
WAY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN UNITED STATES GULF COAST THIS PERIOD. PLACED A SURFACE
TROUGH OFFSHORE THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS FOR THE TIME BEING
UNTIL THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CAN BE HASHED OUT WITH NHC DURING
THE DAILY NOON MEDIUM RANGE CALL.

[NDG]

The CMC might be overdoing it as usual, but for two days in a row the euro has been forecasting pressures to fall well below 1010 mb from the BOC to the lower TX coast and now the gfs seems to join in, the proximity to the Mexican or Texan coast might be a challenge for anything to form if a ridge over FL pushes over the eastern GOM by the weekend.

[srainhoutx]

The euro has "sniffed" this for the past couple of days in various dergrees as well.

[dixiebreeze]

From the TAFB analysis, that ridge is likely to be pulling out of the GOM