Claudette Strengthening

southerngale · #1 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 1:51 am

She's up to 70 mph now...still moving west @25 mph

...Claudette strengthening...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and Grand
Cayman. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Little Cayman
and Cayman Brac.

At 2 am EDT...0600z...the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was
located near latitude 15.1 north...longitude 74.4 west or about
250 miles...405 km...southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Claudette is moving toward the west near 25 mph...41 km/hr...and
this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours with a
gradual decrease in forward speed thereafter.

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have now increased to near 70 mph...111 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast and Claudette could
become a hurricane later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles ...260 km
from the center.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was
1000 mb...29.53 inches.

Above normal tides accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves may occur along the south coast of Jamaica.

Storm total rainfalls of 3 to 6 inches may occur along the path of
Claudette.

Repeating the 2 am EDT position...15.1 N... 74.4 W. Movement
toward...west near 25 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Lawrence

#2 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 7:34 am

At least in her present form. She ismoving too fast and I think she is opening up. She has 12 hours to slow or she will sail into Honduras as an open wave. Her LLC is exposed and very ragged looking on shortwave IR and early vis pics.

#3 Postby **wx247** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 8:06 am

This thing looks very disorganized compared to last night. I agree... she is going to have to slow down or it is bye, bye Claudette!

Guest · #4 Postby **Guest** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 8:10 am

I don't think she's strengthing - I think she will remain a TS today or even be downgraded to a TD - with the open center being exposed. No USA landfall.

Patricia

wrkh99 · #5 Postby **wrkh99** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 9:23 am

You can't say that it want hit the USA at this time .

Colin · #6 Postby **Colin** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 10:24 am

You guys are giving up WAY too early... you'll see...

#7 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 10:36 am

Not giving up...just stating simple facts. There is currently a high at 850 and 700 over the NE GOM. Claudette is still to the east of that high, which means it will not slow until it passes that high...which won't be until tomorrow. By that time...it will be off the coast of Honduras. That is assuming it can beat the shear...which it will not do unless it slows. It is running under the TUTT. The winds at 200 MB are about 35 kts from teh SW and it is headed right towards that real fast if it doesn't slow.

I'm not saying it can't slow. However, with the upper high to the NNW of it...that doesn't bode well for slowing down anytime soon. Even after 24 hours...the 850/700 high flattens and still maintains a west-east steering for another day. That puts the system in Mexico.

Not being a negaitve forecaster...jsut the facts. Climo and the pattern suggest a weakening system into Mexico. Systems RARELY develope and turn when they are moving west at 25 mph into a TUTT. What is your meteorological reasoning to suggest this won't happen. Maybe I am missing something.

southerngale · #8 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 11:52 am

Just for the record....when I posted this late last night, she had just strengthened from 65mph to 70mph. Just letting you all know that I'm not blind.

Claudette Strengthening

Claudette Strengthening

I think she's finished

Who is online