Huge African Wave To Enter Atlantic on July 1-2

[KWT]

Yep that wave does look good over Africa and I agree Meso it does look like its got some sort of circulation on it but who knows as to how well developed it actually is.

Nearly all models develop it to one extent or the other which is is very interesting agreement I have to admit!

[Frank2]

Anything that well organized that far east will recurve at the first opportunity...

[Meso]

Given that there IS an opportunity... It will have to be pretty strong to go through such a strong ridge, if the ridge is as strong as the models are showing.The atmosphere isn't 100% conductive for development so anything isn't likely to bomb, and should move a bit West

[Frank2]

African wave looks less than it did earlier:

http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/photos/world_big.jpg

that's the problem with models - if they initialize with a strong wave over land, then, they'll hypothesize what would happen if it were to develop, based on other factors that the model uses - but, as far as I know, the forecast is not based on what will happen when the same wave encounters cool water, once it moves over water...

Back in the '70s, the four or five forecast models at the time (CLIPER, etc.) were only made available "in house", and, perhaps that was better for everyone...

[Bane]

this wave probably has a < 3% chance to develop. nothing usually happens this time of year out there. using bertha as an example is pretty weak as well considering she was an anomaly.

[Derek Ortt]

African wave looks less than it did earlier:

http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/photos/world_big.jpg

that's the problem with models - if they initialize with a strong wave over land, then, they'll hypothesize what would happen if it were to develop, based on other factors that the model uses - but, as far as I know, the forecast is not based on what will happen when the same wave encounters cool water, once it moves over water...

Back in the '70s, the four or five forecast models at the time (CLIPER, etc.) were only made available "in house", and, perhaps that was better for everyone...

Glad to see I am not the only one on the forums that feels there may be too much model access these days.

I'd say just make the raw GRIB data available so that the mets can use the data, but even make that password protected

[NDG]

African wave looks less than it did earlier:

http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/photos/world_big.jpg

that's the problem with models - if they initialize with a strong wave over land, then, they'll hypothesize what would happen if it were to develop, based on other factors that the model uses - but, as far as I know, the forecast is not based on what will happen when the same wave encounters cool water, once it moves over water...

Back in the '70s, the four or five forecast models at the time (CLIPER, etc.) were only made available "in house", and, perhaps that was better for everyone...

I am not surprised that convection is dying down, being that is getting close to the time of the day for convective minimum, don't kill it yet it has not even gotten to the water yet.

[NDG]

African wave looks less than it did earlier:

http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/photos/world_big.jpg

that's the problem with models - if they initialize with a strong wave over land, then, they'll hypothesize what would happen if it were to develop, based on other factors that the model uses - but, as far as I know, the forecast is not based on what will happen when the same wave encounters cool water, once it moves over water...

Back in the '70s, the four or five forecast models at the time (CLIPER, etc.) were only made available "in house", and, perhaps that was better for everyone...

Glad to see I am not the only one on the forums that feels there may be too much model access these days.

I'd say just make the raw GRIB data available so that the mets can use the data, but even make that password protected

Anything that is paid by taxpayers should be public information, not unless is supported by a private organization, is not like we are talking about the security of the Country. Besides 99% of the US population has no idea where to get or how to read models.

[Frank2]

Not to get off-topic, but, the problem today is that we now have entire legions of "weather speculators", and, that is driving everyone absolutely bananas...

When I worked in that business, the models, though not security sensitive data, were considered data that was only for use by those who needed to use it (NWS, DOD, WMO, etc.) - now, because of the Internet, any 12-year old in bunny slippers has almost (almost) the same access to this data...

As the old saying goes, "too much data will spoil the soup" (or, in this case, the grid)...

[Ed Mahmoud]

African wave looks less than it did earlier:

http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/photos/world_big.jpg

that's the problem with models - if they initialize with a strong wave over land, then, they'll hypothesize what would happen if it were to develop, based on other factors that the model uses - but, as far as I know, the forecast is not based on what will happen when the same wave encounters cool water, once it moves over water...

Back in the '70s, the four or five forecast models at the time (CLIPER, etc.) were only made available "in house", and, perhaps that was better for everyone...

Glad to see I am not the only one on the forums that feels there may be too much model access these days.

I'd say just make the raw GRIB data available so that the mets can use the data, but even make that password protected

I pay taxes, did six years in the Navy, and even answer jury duty summons, I have a right to know when the 6Z GFS at hour 324 shows precip with sub freezing 850 mb temps in Houston, so I can fantasize about a day off work playing with the kids in the sleet.

[Frank2]

Understood (with the understanding that you're being slightly facetious again) - consulting meteorologists also have to use the models for their clients (agriculture, marine, etc.), but, it worries me that those who have model access solely on a fun basis, are creating an entire second front of information that the naive media often uses as fact...

In your case, you are part of the oil industry and have a use for the data in your work, but, many are trying to play the interpretation of this complex data for their own uses (oil speculators, etc.), so, that is counter-productive to mankind as a whole...

It's a more serious issue than many have realized, and, is only now coming to light with the effect that home-grown speculators are having on gasoline prices...

[oyster_reef]

African wave looks less than it did earlier:

http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/photos/world_big.jpg

that's the problem with models - if they initialize with a strong wave over land, then, they'll hypothesize what would happen if it were to develop, based on other factors that the model uses - but, as far as I know, the forecast is not based on what will happen when the same wave encounters cool water, once it moves over water...

Back in the '70s, the four or five forecast models at the time (CLIPER, etc.) were only made available "in house", and, perhaps that was better for everyone...

Glad to see I am not the only one on the forums that feels there may be too much model access these days.

I'd say just make the raw GRIB data available so that the mets can use the data, but even make that password protected

I pay taxes, did six years in the Navy, and even answer jury duty summons, I have a right to know when the 6Z GFS at hour 324 shows precip with sub freezing 850 mb temps in Houston, so I can fantasize about a day off work playing with the kids in the sleet.

well said... dittos!

"I'd say just make the raw GRIB data available so that the mets can use the data, but even make that password protected"

whatever.

[Decomdoug]

Not to get off-topic, but, the problem today is that we now have entire legions of "weather speculators", and, that is driving everyone absolutely bananas...

When I worked in that business, the models, though not security sensitive data, were considered data that was only for use by those who needed to use it (NWS, DOD, WMO, etc.) - now, because of the Internet, any 12-year old in bunny slippers has almost (almost) the same access to this data...

As the old saying goes, "too much data will spoil the soup" (or, in this case, the grid)...

I did two tours in the USN and am 56 years old. I enjoy the models for what they are, a possibility not an upcoming event. Perhaps the answer is to control access for the 12 year olds in the bunny slippers if they prove they are not capable of understanding the limits of the models. Instead of password protection perhaps a credit card controlled access would help.
Only a suggestion. I'll go back to lurking now.

[Meso]

Yes,but this is a forum for people who also find weather interesting as a hobby and do use it soley for fun.Guess what,I'm one of them.I live far away from any tropical activity but I still love tracking and hurricanes in general.

Anyone who comes onto this area of the forum looking for 100% accurate data on cyclones is an idiot.If they want to keep an eye out for any possibilities they can look at the tropical analysis where it is basically strictly professional meteorologists posting.

And look, if the media uses a source like an amature forum for information then they are idiots and for people who follow the media blindly are likely also.So often the media has no idea what they're talking about weatherwise.

Everyone should be entitled to do what they want and talk how they want about weather and be allowed to access all the tools, it's up to the media to be responsible and those who count on 100% accurate information to do more than look on the amature side of a forum.If they don't have the brain power to get more involved in the details of something that affects their career so greatly, sucks to be them.

[Decomdoug]

Agreed, but unfortunately we are all judged by the weakest link. The 12 year old sees the GFS @ 240 hours with a TS, tells his mommy that a hurricane is coming and...you know the rest.

[Cyclone1]

Yes,but this is a forum for people who also find weather interesting as a hobby and do use it soley for fun.Guess what,I'm one of them.I live far away from any tropical activity but I still love tracking and hurricanes in general.

Anyone who comes onto this area of the forum looking for 100% accurate data on cyclones is an idiot.If they want to keep an eye out for any possibilities they can look at the tropical analysis where it is basically strictly professional meteorologists posting.

And look, if the media uses a source like an amature forum for information then they are idiots and for people who follow the media blindly are likely also.So often the media has no idea what they're talking about weatherwise.

Everyone should be entitled to do what they want and talk how they want about weather and be allowed to access all the tools, it's up to the media to be responsible and those who count on 100% accurate information to do more than look on the amature side of a forum.If they don't have the brain power to get more involved in the details of something that affects their career so greatly, sucks to be them.

*applause* Well said.

[dwg71]

model forecasting development is so unreliable it's not worth looking at for any other reasons than entertainment. At this juncture, models are good for predicting the path of existing storms. Formation and intensity predictions are still in the infantile stage.

A broken clock is right twice a day, a blind squirrel will find an occassional nut, and a computer model will eventually predict the development of a wave...but the broken clock is most often wrong, a blind squirrel is most often hungry and the computer models are most often out to lunch (when predicting development).

[KWT]

I don't agree with that to be honest dwg71, sure if you just looked the CMC you'd probably come to the right conclusion but the GFS and ECM models are getting better with time at predicting formation.

The problem is a lot of people assume that a closed low automatically means a tropical depression/storm when as we've seen in the past that isn't the be all and end all, before we know that closed low could be sheared to hell and be totally naked, it'd still be a closed low but obviously not a tropical cyclone.

[Ed Mahmoud]

For what it is worth, West-Southwest wind at 12 mph in Accra, Ghana. No idea if that is normal. FWIW, it should be about sunset there, and it appears today's high was 82ºF, darned comfortable for someplace 5ºN of the equator.

Link

[cycloneye]

If this forms into a tropical storm,it would be the most east cyclone formation on record.