Long Range Models

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Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#261 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Jun 30, 2008 12:39 pm

KWT wrote:Yep it does but note it comes from a tropical cyclone that the CMC forms in the EPAC which it forms in 72hrs time. (Not 96E but a fresh new one)


Doesn't look like that Pacific system really survives crossing Tehuanepec. That system is analyzed as 850 mb vorticity crossing Panama and Nicaragua currently, and there does seem to be a wave crossing. But the Canadian has a famous tendency of over-hyping development.


But 12Z GFS and CMC, at least through 168/144 hours, are backing away from a Western GOMEX development.
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Re: Long Range Models

#262 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 30, 2008 1:09 pm

12z UKMET It shows the low pressure moving generally west but at the end it weakens.
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#263 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 30, 2008 1:11 pm

I cant find a single model that does NOT develop the wave .... all of them do ..
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#264 Postby vacanechaser » Mon Jun 30, 2008 1:15 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I cant find a single model that does NOT develop the wave .... all of them do ..



gonna be interesting as we head into the anniversery of bertha in 1996... july 4th, 1996 was the day it was named!!



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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#265 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jun 30, 2008 1:34 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I cant find a single model that does NOT develop the wave .... all of them do ..
Yes, and that is what makes this situation quite interesting. I can't wait to see how everything plays out.
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#266 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 30, 2008 1:42 pm

The ECMWF (the euro) is quite aggressive with it and keeps it fairly far south ..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
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#267 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jun 30, 2008 1:52 pm

What are the chances of some tropical weather between the 10th and the 16th of July? I havent been watching the models past 7 days.
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#268 Postby Category 5 » Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:54 pm

fact789 wrote:What are the chances of some tropical weather between the 10th and the 16th of July? I havent been watching the models past 7 days.


Somewhere between 0 and 100 percent. :wink:
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#269 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jun 30, 2008 3:16 pm

I agree with Derek, the GOM is very plausible. There will be a ridge on top of the gom. H250 ridge.
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Re: Long Range Models

#270 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 30, 2008 3:24 pm

I didnt see the 12z NOGAPS posted so here it is.

12z NOGAPS Shows the low pressure moving WNW.
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Re: Long Range Models

#271 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 30, 2008 11:50 pm

Here is the complete 00z GFS loop.

00z GFS Loop
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Re: Long Range Models

#272 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Jul 01, 2008 12:12 am

Not all of the models are incorporated, but here is the gfs.

Image
Nogaps at 96 Hours 00Z
Image
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Re: Long Range Models

#273 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Jul 01, 2008 12:27 am

Not sure if anyone posted the 12Z ecmwf yet. I didn't think I saw it in the previous pages.

Image
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Re: Long Range Models

#274 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Jul 01, 2008 12:54 am

CMC 00Z 48 Hours
Image
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Re: Long Range Models

#275 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Jul 01, 2008 1:07 am

Tue Jul 1 02:04:17 EDT 2008


089

WTNT80 EGRR 010539



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.07.2008







NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 10.3N 15.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 01.07.2008 10.3N 15.9W WEAK

00UTC 02.07.2008 10.9N 18.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.07.2008 10.7N 20.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.07.2008 11.1N 22.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.07.2008 11.8N 24.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 04.07.2008 12.3N 26.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.07.2008 13.2N 29.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.07.2008 14.8N 31.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.07.2008 15.9N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.07.2008 16.1N 37.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.07.2008 16.9N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.07.2008 17.3N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



TOO 010539




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#276 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 01, 2008 2:22 am

Starting to sound like a broken record, lol, 00z euro still showing development and moving WNW weakening it to a large degree by the time it gets past 40W to near Bermuda on this forecast run.
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Re: Long Range Models

#277 Postby boca » Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:38 am

The 06zGFS shows another low coming off of Africa as were watching 92L. Here's the loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#278 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:39 am

Yep Boca almost like a repeat performance. We shall have to see how the models handle 92L firstly before we care to think about any possible wave coming after this one.
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Re: Long Range Models

#279 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Jul 02, 2008 12:21 pm

It looks like the train is cranking up off Africa.The Cape Verde season could be the most memorable part of this season.Wouldn't be surprised if by August we see a nasty hurricane headed for the US
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Re: Long Range Models

#280 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 03, 2008 7:11 am

GFS is showing another low emerging Afrca in the long range.Here is the 06Z loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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