Too early to think about next fall/winter?

[Texas Snowman]

I know, I know, summer is not even officially on the calendar yet.

Still, I'm curious if any of you mets out there have any early thoughts on what we might see this fall and winter in the Lower 48?

Tx Snowman

[Ed Mahmoud]

Snow accumulated a dusting on my car and palm tree fronds Christmas Eve 2004, and in 2006 there was sufficient freezing drizzle to cause an accident on an elevated off-ramp from I-45 into downtown Houston, produce small icicles on my gutter, and give me an excuse to go into work 2 hours late.

Nothing this past winter, and with daytime temps in the lower to mid 90sF in Houston the past few days, the ground is too warm for snow accumulation. Plus it doesn't tend to snow in late May here anyway.


But 2008-2009 could be the winter when a massive snow strikes SE Texas.

If we are in a weak warm ENSO (not typing the word because ñ doesn't produce an enye and I can't remember the alt and whatever keys), than SE Texas might be in a somewhat wetter than normal period, with the STJ over even the PJ overhead/nearby, and maybe one of those big Canadian airmasses might break off and settle down just on the force/density of a massive 1050 mb super-frigid high in the Yukon, but that would more likely produce freezing rain than snow.


But if it happens during the work week, and the kids stay home and I miss work, I will not complain.

[Ptarmigan]

Snow accumulated a dusting on my car and palm tree fronds Christmas Eve 2004, and in 2006 there was sufficient freezing drizzle to cause an accident on an elevated off-ramp from I-45 into downtown Houston, produce small icicles on my gutter, and give me an excuse to go into work 2 hours late.

Nothing this past winter, and with daytime temps in the lower to mid 90sF in Houston the past few days, the ground is too warm for snow accumulation. Plus it doesn't tend to snow in late May here anyway.


But 2008-2009 could be the winter when a massive snow strikes SE Texas.

If we are in a weak warm ENSO (not typing the word because ñ doesn't produce an enye and I can't remember the alt and whatever keys), than SE Texas might be in a somewhat wetter than normal period, with the STJ over even the PJ overhead/nearby, and maybe one of those big Canadian airmasses might break off and settle down just on the force/density of a massive 1050 mb super-frigid high in the Yukon, but that would more likely produce freezing rain than snow.


But if it happens during the work week, and the kids stay home and I miss work, I will not complain.

I am already looking forward to winter because it is HOT!

The 1895 Blizzard happened in a Neutral ENSO cycle. The NAO was negative.

ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Ind ... y.filter-5
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/jhurrell/in ... aostatdjfm

When I tell people about that blizzard, they are in total shock. They cannot even believe it.

[Tstormwatcher]

I cannot wait for winter. I hate summer already. Too hot and humid.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Joe Bastardi, in today's blog, mentioned that we could be looking at an early start to winter this year with November and December being quite cold.

[CajunMama]

You're in florida now ewg. There's no winter there or will you be in ok by winter?

[Extremeweatherguy]

You're in florida now ewg. There's no winter there or will you be in ok by winter?

Florida is only temporary. By the winter I will be up in Oklahoma City enjoying each and every winter storm I can get.

[Portastorm]

You're in florida now ewg. There's no winter there or will you be in ok by winter?

Florida is only temporary. By the winter I will be up in Oklahoma City enjoying each and every winter storm I can get.

Hey EWG, I bet you're going to get some "action" up there in OKC this winter. They always seem to get several impressive winter storms. You'll be posting about 3-5 inches of snow while I'll be enjoying my drizzle and 45 degrees here in Austin!

But you're right about your earlier post ... JB along with some other pro mets on other weather forums are suggesting that the weakening La Nina-to-neutral phase, along with some other factors, may mean a strong and harsh start to winter for the Plains and the East.

I'm looking forward to seeing how this develops.

[CaptinCrunch]

Well long time no snow. or is that see, or is it both.....LOL


Anyway just thought I would drop in to my fav stomping ground and see whats up?

Winter, gee I wished, it's only July 7th and still 4+ months away from winter. You know it don't get cool till after Thanksgiving around these parts.

Now about winter, I've said it every year and I will say it again this year, "IF" it's cold enought for pants and heavy jackets on Halloween night here, then winter (Dec-Feb) will be average to colder than average in NTX. "IF" it's wet, and cold on Halloween, then we will have better than average chances for snow/Ice thru the winter months.

Last year was shorts weather for Halloween, Hot and sticky. I think it was in the lower 80's and we saw what winter was like in NTX last year.

Halloween 06 was cold, got down into the upper 40's that night, hell I even lit the fireplace, plus we had a light rain the next morning, and that coming winter was slightly colder and wetter than normal and it even snowed a few times.

So it's Halloween or BUST........All Aboooard....

[Portastorm]

So it's the ol' North Texas Halloween analog, eh?!

Very interesting. We'll need to be checking in with you Captin come late October.

[CaptinCrunch]

As far back as I can remember, (maybe 15yrs) I have used the good old "North Texas Halloween analog" for my winter outlook, and it's worked really well with a 60% good forecast. Now that don't always translate to 100% of the time we see a below average winter, but it does tend to get colder earlier and a better than average chance at seeing winter precip over the course of the Dec-Feb time frame.


http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CT/animate.arctic.0.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just a couple of months to go before we start getting frequent cold fronts coming down into the lower 48 again.

I can't wait!

Summer has been nice, but I am definitely ready for the season change to arrive.

[JonathanBelles]

me either! Bring on the 50's lol

[TnSnowman]

It has been cool with mid to upper 50's here in southern tennessee the past week or so for morning lows. We are enjoying some rather nice fall like weather currently with afternoon highs staying in the low to mid 80's. Before ya know it, we will have chances of 33* rains.

[Miss Mary]

We had such a dry and very hot summer last year in my city, Cincinnati, that this summer's temps have been very pleasant. Right now we could use precip but no one is complaining about temps. Last year my then high school aged daughter had a "heat day". Since her former HS doesn't have A/C, they closed it because temps had been close to or at 100. That was pretty much unheard of - a heat day! Snow days are common here, but not heat days.

So I'm not complaining but I do love winter. So I'm looking forward to snow, if we're lucky!

[terstorm1012]

Never too early.

Now I'm not the most objective person re: winter (I seem to hate it more and more every year---darn Earth's Axial Tilt!) but I think where I live has gotten off easy winterwise. Last year we had one nasty ice storm before Christmas and then minor events the rest, and the previous winter we had a nasty ice storm at Valentines Day but again that was it.

I just get the sense that we're not going to get so lucky this winter and a number of outlets are hinting at such (AccuWX, for one.)

[Extremeweatherguy]

It has been pretty cool in central Oklahoma today. I landed here this afternoon to find temperatures hovering in the upper 60s with rainfall. In fact, Will Rogers Airport set a record coldest high temperature for the date...just 69 degrees. Definitely a bit chilly considering the average high is in the 90s!

Things should finally begin to warm up around here by Thursday it seems. Highs should be back into the middle 80s by then.

[CaptinCrunch]

Just a couple of months to go before we start getting frequent cold fronts coming down into the lower 48 again.

I can't wait!

Summer has been nice, but I am definitely ready for the season change to arrive.

Yep, by this time in October we should start seeing some cooler weather, high mid 70's I hope. This has been the hottest summer in D/FW since 2003 (30 days so far of 100+ temps, and 21 of them coming in a 24 day streatch) Aug 16th was the first 80 degree day we've had since May 27th.

June - AV High 96.7.....AV Low 76.3
July - AV High 99.8.... AV low 78.2
Aug - AV High 96.5......AV low 76.9

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is a chilly one here in Central Oklahoma this morning! Temperatures are in the lower 60s with scattered showers and gusty north winds to 30mph. Highs today will be lucky to top 70F with all this cloud cover and CAA, which will be many degrees below the average high of 88F for this time of the year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Another strong front is progged to arrive in Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon/evening. According to the Norman NWS office, temperatures should fall from near 90F before the front arrives into the 60s within 2-3 hours of the fronts passage. By Tuesday morning, temperatures will have fallen well into the 50s, and then our high on Tuesday afternoon will struggle to get much above 75F (even with partly sunny skies).

Nice!

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. South southwest wind between 6 and 11 mph.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. North northwest wind 7 to 10 mph increasing to between 15 and 18 mph. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. North northeast wind between 8 and 11 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.