Potential in the GOM?

[Ed Mahmoud]

One glorious thing about a "potential in the GOMEX" thread, if one waits a few weeks during the season, it should be good for at least an invest, eventually.

[JonathanBelles]

Could this have anything to do with the front coming down?

[HouTXmetro]

So what's the possibility of that current blob of convection developing? With the front draped over the Gulf Coast doesn't that mean if a surface low forms it could stall or pull N/NE until High pressure builds in?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[PTrackerLA]

Well the convection is being persistent in the southern BOC and I detect the slightest hint of a ciruclation in the SW BOC right near the coast. Don't have time to look but I would guess that the stearing flow would send this west into Mexico pretty soon.

[lrak]

I gave up on those little swirls Time for me to see a full blown circulation before I get on board. NOT...

I was about to post the same thing, only the pressures down there are very high!

Karl

[dixiebreeze]

One glorious thing about a "potential in the GOMEX" thread, if one waits a few weeks during the season, it should be good for at least an invest, eventually.

Two points!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Any thunderstorms that might form over the western gulf
should gradually, over the next 5-7 days, be pushed
inland over Mexico or Texas (if storms form that far
north), based on the ridge off of Florida's east coast
reestablishing itself. The current trough that has a
SW to NE flow should be later replaced with the high's influence.
So Texas, you guys might see some rains this weekened.
I'm not sure about tropical development.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Could this have anything to do with the front coming down?

Maybe. A front in Texas disrupts the more normal pattern of stronger onshore flow because of higher pressure behind it, which can increase convergence in the Gulf, and, of course, a front, if it makes it to the Gulf, can act as a low level convergence boundary to start storms, if everything else is favorable.


Looks to me like the 12Z models were backing off on a Gulf development this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised if none of the 0Z models had anything. Well, the Canadian could develop a ham sandwich into a cyclone, but I wouldn't be surprised if the other models show nothing.


Which is ok, really, a quiet July 4th weekend.

[vbhoutex]

Any swirl or blob of consequence in the BOC appears to have now been blown apart by the shear, which isn't that unusual this early in the season. I did not look at any sat loops prior to just before this posting today, so I am not saying there was nothing there earlier, just that it is now definitely blown apart.

And a quiet, weatherwise at least, July 4th weekend would be just fine with me too!!!

[Sanibel]

A sort of trough has dipped into the Gulf with high shear. Maybe it will leave something behind, maybe not.

[HouTXmetro]

A frontal low is now hugging the NW Gulf Coast. Any chance it moves into the GOM and detaches?

Secondly, the SW BOC has flared in the same spot for two straight days.

[srainhoutx]

Stalled boundry and ULL over W TX forecast to slide into the NW GOM along boundry the next few days. Models continue to show deeper tropical moisture to stream in once the ULL moves along with no closed low at this time. Something to watch a bit closer to home none the less, as Tropical Wave in C/W Caribbean enters the picture. No Rain for the 4th of July PLEASE. Snipet from HPC this morning...

DOWN SOUTH...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH INLAND OF THE GULF COAST...WHILE THE GFS
SHOWS BETTER CONTINUITY AND INDICATES AN UPPER CYCLONE CLOSES OFF
IN TEXAS BEFORE RETROGRADING...A FAIRLY TYPICAL DEVELOPMENT FOR
JULY BUT SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TROUGHING NEAR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK IN THAT AREA IF THE GFS SOLUTION IS CORRECT.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

[PTrackerLA]

July 4th is looking stormy in my area. We also need to keep an eye on the old frontal boundary, the convection in the BOC, and tropical wave entering the gulf in a few days to see how these all interact.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS predicts fairly low pressure and rain in Western Gulf this weekend into early next week, but doesn't predict development.

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS predicts fairly low pressure and rain in Western Gulf [b]this weekend into early next week, but doesn't predict development.

Shhhhh...

[HouTXmetro]

No rain for the 4th!!!

[srainhoutx]

I'll second that motion. The weekend into early next week might be another story all together.

[Stratosphere747]

May not be as hostile compared to the last week and what the GFS was then trying to spin up.

[dixiebreeze]

2:05 p.m. NHC:

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA
RUNNING FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NEAR
28N96W CONTINUING ACROSS S TEXAS. A LARGE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO N
CENTRAL GULF WATERS IS GIVING THIS FRONT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO DRIVEN BY W TO NW UPPER FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-22N
BETWEEN 94W-98W A LITTLE BIT E OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ARE COVERING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO S
OF 22N W OF 98W. THESE CLOUDS ARE PRESENT DUE TO OUTFLOW ON TOP
OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS LOW MAY BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA JUST CLIPS THE AREA NEAR SE FLORIDA.

[stormhunter7]

i think the western gulf of mexico/BOC will need to be watched around 4th through the weekend... think the little buger in the EPAC will send some energy over MX into the SW GOM... and with pressures being low.... we could get a tropical system out of it... as it would get caught up in the westerlies... got some time to watch... but have a feeling... a switch is about to flip in the atlantic side season... Welcome to July 2008!