Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
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- cycloneye
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Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
Thread for models only.
WHXX01 KWBC 010852
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0852 UTC TUE JUL 1 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080701 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080701 0600 080701 1800 080702 0600 080702 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 16.5W 11.1N 18.3W 11.2N 20.1W 11.6N 22.1W
BAMD 10.8N 16.5W 11.1N 18.8W 11.2N 21.1W 11.4N 23.4W
BAMM 10.8N 16.5W 11.1N 18.6W 11.2N 20.7W 11.5N 22.8W
LBAR 10.8N 16.5W 11.0N 19.6W 11.2N 22.9W 11.4N 26.6W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 39KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 39KTS 47KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080703 0600 080704 0600 080705 0600 080706 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 24.2W 13.6N 29.3W 16.0N 35.2W 18.9N 41.7W
BAMD 11.8N 25.7W 13.0N 30.1W 15.5N 34.5W 19.2N 40.1W
BAMM 12.0N 24.9W 13.6N 29.5W 16.4N 34.7W 19.8N 41.3W
LBAR 11.6N 30.2W 11.8N 37.2W 11.4N 43.4W 11.3N 47.3W
SHIP 57KTS 73KTS 82KTS 81KTS
DSHP 57KTS 73KTS 82KTS 81KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 16.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 13.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 10.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KWBC 010852
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0852 UTC TUE JUL 1 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080701 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080701 0600 080701 1800 080702 0600 080702 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 16.5W 11.1N 18.3W 11.2N 20.1W 11.6N 22.1W
BAMD 10.8N 16.5W 11.1N 18.8W 11.2N 21.1W 11.4N 23.4W
BAMM 10.8N 16.5W 11.1N 18.6W 11.2N 20.7W 11.5N 22.8W
LBAR 10.8N 16.5W 11.0N 19.6W 11.2N 22.9W 11.4N 26.6W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 39KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 39KTS 47KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080703 0600 080704 0600 080705 0600 080706 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 24.2W 13.6N 29.3W 16.0N 35.2W 18.9N 41.7W
BAMD 11.8N 25.7W 13.0N 30.1W 15.5N 34.5W 19.2N 40.1W
BAMM 12.0N 24.9W 13.6N 29.5W 16.4N 34.7W 19.8N 41.3W
LBAR 11.6N 30.2W 11.8N 37.2W 11.4N 43.4W 11.3N 47.3W
SHIP 57KTS 73KTS 82KTS 81KTS
DSHP 57KTS 73KTS 82KTS 81KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 16.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 13.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 10.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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- cycloneye
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Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread
Shear tendency from Ship is not unfavorable down the road,in fact is less after 48 hours.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* INVEST AL922008 07/01/08 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 39 47 57 67 73 79 82 83 81
V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 39 47 57 67 73 79 82 83 81
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 30 32 35 40 48 56 65 72
SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 14 19 11 17 12 11 6 3 4 5 13
SHEAR DIR 92 88 82 74 104 84 102 106 127 58 289 270 209
SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.6 26.8 26.2 26.0 25.7 24.9 24.8 25.2 25.5
POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 143 137 132 122 116 114 112 106 106 109 112
ADJ. POT. INT. 153 146 142 136 130 120 113 112 109 103 103 106 107
200 MB T (C) -54.5 -53.9 -53.0 -53.7 -54.0 -52.9 -54.1 -52.8 -53.8 -53.4 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6
700-500 MB RH 87 81 82 80 81 78 78 73 69 67 62 55 52
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 12 13 16 15 17 19 18 19 20 18 17
850 MB ENV VOR 25 36 58 80 101 103 117 128 131 145 137 121 84
200 MB DIV 88 93 121 117 106 144 112 97 44 56 44 34 11
LAND (KM) 127 161 230 331 438 657 858 1072 1299 1557 1849 2138 2048
LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.5 12.0 12.7 13.6 14.8 16.4 18.2 19.8
LONG(DEG W) 16.5 17.6 18.6 19.7 20.7 22.8 24.9 27.2 29.5 32.0 34.7 38.0 41.3
STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 17 18 17
HEAT CONTENT 11 21 26 17 10 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 14. 22. 32. 42. 48. 54. 57. 58. 56.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 14. 22. 32. 42. 48. 54. 57. 58. 56.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 07/01/08 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999
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Re: 92L Models=SHIIPS shear forecast=Less than 10kts in 72 hours
Looks like we are looking at and early july hurricane if that happens. First time since 05 not a good sign.
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- cycloneye
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Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread
6z HWRF shows a minimal hurricane as it tracks west to westnorthwest.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread
The GFS shows the subtropical high migrating eastward during the disturbance's movement west, so, if it develops, it's more likely to move NW fairly early, as shown in the model run...
Last edited by Frank2 on Tue Jul 01, 2008 9:05 am, edited 2 times in total.
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- cycloneye
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Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread
The 12:00 UTC tropical model guidance is a little delayed but shortly it will be posted as soon its released.
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157
WHXX01 KWBC 011305
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1305 UTC TUE JUL 1 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080701 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080701 1200 080702 0000 080702 1200 080703 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 16.6W 10.8N 18.7W 10.8N 21.0W 11.3N 23.2W
BAMD 10.8N 16.6W 11.0N 18.9W 11.2N 21.1W 11.7N 23.3W
BAMM 10.8N 16.6W 10.9N 19.0W 10.8N 21.4W 11.1N 23.6W
LBAR 10.8N 16.6W 10.9N 19.4W 11.0N 22.5W 11.4N 25.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080703 1200 080704 1200 080705 1200 080706 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 25.6W 12.5N 30.4W 15.9N 35.2W 20.8N 40.6W
BAMD 12.3N 25.6W 13.8N 29.9W 17.2N 34.8W 21.2N 39.9W
BAMM 11.4N 25.8W 12.6N 30.0W 16.6N 34.7W 21.4N 40.3W
LBAR 11.7N 29.2W 12.1N 36.0W 12.2N 42.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 60KTS 80KTS 84KTS 81KTS
DSHP 60KTS 80KTS 84KTS 81KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 16.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 14.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 10.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KWBC 011305
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1305 UTC TUE JUL 1 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080701 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080701 1200 080702 0000 080702 1200 080703 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 16.6W 10.8N 18.7W 10.8N 21.0W 11.3N 23.2W
BAMD 10.8N 16.6W 11.0N 18.9W 11.2N 21.1W 11.7N 23.3W
BAMM 10.8N 16.6W 10.9N 19.0W 10.8N 21.4W 11.1N 23.6W
LBAR 10.8N 16.6W 10.9N 19.4W 11.0N 22.5W 11.4N 25.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080703 1200 080704 1200 080705 1200 080706 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 25.6W 12.5N 30.4W 15.9N 35.2W 20.8N 40.6W
BAMD 12.3N 25.6W 13.8N 29.9W 17.2N 34.8W 21.2N 39.9W
BAMM 11.4N 25.8W 12.6N 30.0W 16.6N 34.7W 21.4N 40.3W
LBAR 11.7N 29.2W 12.1N 36.0W 12.2N 42.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 60KTS 80KTS 84KTS 81KTS
DSHP 60KTS 80KTS 84KTS 81KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 16.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 14.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 10.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* INVEST AL922008 07/01/08 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 30 34 38 48 60 70 80 84 84 83 81
V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 34 38 48 60 70 80 84 84 83 81
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 48 57 64 68 70
SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 11 8 8 9 6 4 6 4 7 4 7
SHEAR DIR 78 77 82 94 74 93 66 96 311 346 295 252 263
SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.5 26.8 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.1 24.8 25.0 25.5
POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 142 136 131 122 118 117 116 108 106 108 112
ADJ. POT. INT. 151 148 143 137 130 121 115 114 113 105 104 104 106
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -52.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 83 82 81 83 79 78 75 74 68 66 63 56 54
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 13 15 14 14 16 16 18 17 16 14 13
850 MB ENV VOR 32 52 70 90 88 112 121 109 120 113 83 66 15
200 MB DIV 92 111 108 97 125 137 105 102 48 78 8 22 32
LAND (KM) 138 185 279 399 524 750 974 1162 1371 1571 1850 2158 2253
LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.6 14.3 16.6 19.2 21.4
LONG(DEG W) 16.6 17.8 19.0 20.2 21.4 23.6 25.8 27.8 30.0 32.1 34.7 37.6 40.3
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 13 15 18 18 16
HEAT CONTENT 10 23 24 15 9 5 3 3 1 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 9. 13. 23. 35. 45. 55. 59. 59. 58. 56.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 5. 9. 13. 23. 35. 45. 55. 59. 59. 58. 56.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 07/01/08 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
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- cycloneye
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Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread=12:00 UTC Models Guidance
As noted in the 12z ship output posted above this post,shear will be almost nonexistent thru 120 hours.
SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 11 8 8 9 6 4 6 4 7 4 7
SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 11 8 8 9 6 4 6 4 7 4 7
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- gatorcane
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Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread=12:00 UTC Models Guidance
cycloneye wrote:As noted in the 12z ship output posted above this post,shear will be almost nonexistent thru 120 hours.
SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 11 8 8 9 6 4 6 4 7 4 7
I really doubt shear will be next to nil. Is it for real?
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- Extremeweatherguy
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How fast this actually develops will be crucial in determining the track. If it can explode into a hurricane as quickly as the SHIPS shows it doing so, then a more northward track looks likely. If, however, it takes more time to develop or stays fairly weak, then I would expect the system to remain closer to the southern end of this morning's model guidance. What will also be important will be what occurs beyond day 5. Will the system be able to eventually turn due north and out to sea, or will the high build in stronger and send it back W or WNW? The long-range models have been going back and forth on this issue, so it will be interesting to see what actually happens.
All in all though, I am quite impressed with what I am seeing. I would not have expected to see the SHIPS predicting an 84 knot system and I also didn't expect to see Invest 92L so soon in the day. It looks like July could be getting started with a bang!
All in all though, I am quite impressed with what I am seeing. I would not have expected to see the SHIPS predicting an 84 knot system and I also didn't expect to see Invest 92L so soon in the day. It looks like July could be getting started with a bang!
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I think another possibility is a w then wnw/nw movement folllowed by a bend back to to the west beyond 6 days. July climatology strongly suggests that storms originating east of the islands tend to have a more westerly component. I would not be surprised if we see this system take on a more northerly component between days 3-5 due to the possibility of a stronger system and shifting of the subtropical ridge. Thereafter, it's very conceivable that a much more westerly course would take place. I think a position around 23.0N/65W with a w or wnw trajectory seems plausible looking at climatology, modeling, and some of the medium range forecasted synoptics. There stands a reasonable chance this reaches minimal hurricane stenght around 19N/40W. If it bends back more west or remains further south than a more formidable hurricane is possible.
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Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread
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Re: INVEST 92L Models Thread
12Z CMC takes the system to about 18N-50W in 6 days - closing in on the N Leewards.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008070112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008070112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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