Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
POSITION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION AND CONTINUITY AND ANY
CONVECTION REMAINS LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE IS ALSO NOTED FROM 6N-11N
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 44W-46W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE
POSITION OF THE AXIS IS BASED ON CONTINUITY.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N11W 8N25W 5N34W 8N37W 10N44W
10N47W AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W. IN ADDITION TO
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-16W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 22W-34W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 40W-44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 55W-59W.

[tailgater]

The wave @ 10N 47w, looks like it has some organization to it this morning. I gotta go to work, no time to check and see if it has a future.

[Gustywind]

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... =RGB,c=AIR
Numerous huge convective areas beginning to exit, interresting week ahead
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg
You can see in spite of the SAL, cleary the strongs clusters on Africa that
the models want to develop... as strongs twaves status ...

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 302339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
POSITION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION AND ALL SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
W OF THE AXIS FROM 10N-11N.

[Steve H.]

There does appear to be a circulation with the system SE of the Windwards. This could certainly become a player over the next week if shear lightens up. Some fairly strong rotation there currently. Maybe the mjo is going to spark a develop surge in the Atlantic.

[Ed Mahmoud]

There does seem to be a decent little circulation about 38ºW, but it is at an awfully low latitude, and will either run into South America, or close enough to it to be flung Westward by the South American heat low, which is strong this time of year.

That rapid movement through the Southeast Caribbean exacerbates shear.

[Steve H.]

Actually, the circulation I'm looking at is @ 13N, 53W and moving WNW. A vigorous little spin but lacking any deep convection as of now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Actually, the circulation I'm looking at is @ 13N, 53W and moving WNW. A vigorous little spin but lacking any deep convection as of now.

Oh. That spin.


Mine looks better, even if it is too far South.

[cycloneye]

Whoa,what is this little guy ESE of Barbados doing?

[KWT]

Little system but prehaps a little interesting, how is the shear profiles in the Caribbean right now, if its lowering after being high then we may need to watch just in case.

[gatorcane]

Cycloneye, good find while most people concentrate on 92L. It looks pretty good to me. Just needs a little more convection.

[Steve H.]

This is what I tried mentioning earlier. This is a vigorous little circulation, but it has been gaining convection this afternoon at a steady pace. Look closely (losing the visible now!) as it has a pretty tight LLC. IF SHear lessens it may have a good shot at being our next invest.

[HURAKAN]

The circulation is quite evident in the visible images. Convection increasing and nice to see the tropics coming to life.

[KWT]

Yeah this could need watching depending on shear tendency in the Caribbean. I have heard some models are going to lower shear in the Caribbean soon as well but will it be in time?

Small system, could end up being an invest if it can keep its convection for another 12-24hrs.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Here is this tiny system, convection is lacking let's see if this continues to exibit something decent during the 12 -24hours..
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Shear is quite moderate to strong but not as strong as the past days in the same area , 20 to 30 kt are doting the area, not so bad.... whereas not sufficient to carry a huge and well defined tropical system for my part....
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
But the shear tendeny shows that winds will abate a bit a more near the east carib, interresting....

[tailgater]

This is what I tried mentioning earlier. This is a vigorous little circulation, but it has been gaining convection this afternoon at a steady pace. Look closely (losing the visible now!) as it has a pretty tight LLC. IF SHear lessens it may have a good shot at being our next invest.

Yeah, I saw this one yesterday morning

The wave @ 10N 47w, looks like it has some organization to it this morning. I gotta go to work, no time to check and see if it has a future.

Shear should keep this from doing to much for the next few days and probably all together, as mentioned earlier.

[KWT]

New area of convection coming off Africa now a bit further south of where Bertha came off-shore:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg

GFS does develop this system so we shall have to wait and see what happens, give Bertha did form its not impossible.

[HURAKAN]

Conditions appear favorable for development, especially south of Bertha where you find higher SSTs.

[KWT]

Yeah though the outflow from Bertha would probably be a problem given how close they are. Also for now its only the GFS that does anything at all with this area of convection.

[Gustywind]

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 14N24W 9N31W 6N40W 6N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 14W-17W...