TC Bertha

[HURAKAN]

For a tropical wave, early in July, and in the EATL, it looks very well organized.

[Derek Ortt]

I don't see what you're seeing, Chris... at leats not yet (I want to see what you're seeing... I want to watch fireworks on Friday, lol)

[KWT]

Maybe Frank but the shear pattern looks fairly low, low enough for development the main problem at least until 40W from about 25-30W will be the lower temps in that region, should prevent much development.
There does seem to be a little area of stable air fairly close by which may also help but who knows.

Anyway as I've said before I don't expect any development till 40W, then it will have a real shot back in the warmer seas again, may just have to weather the cooler waters.

wxman, ok thats fair enough, the LLC to the east isn't strong as you say but it is close to that small area of convection which may help to sustain it for a little while.

[deltadog03]

I still think this has a descent chance at developing, but nearly as quickly as models show it. This looks fairly raggid as wxman was saying. IMO I feel that models are jumping on this too quickly...(as usually in the eastern atl.)

[NDG]

It would had been nice if station 13001 would had been working, the center would be passing right over it.

[KWT]

I agree Deltadog and given it will slowly move into an area of cooler waters I don't think that argues too well for it to get fast strong but equally I don't think its going to weaken into a naked swirl like I've heard some people say.

NDG, yep the center is going to go right over that, thats a good place to put it though!

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

I don't see what you're seeing, wxman57... at least not yet (I want to see what you're seeing... I want to watch fireworks on Friday, lol)

We're staring at high-res meteosat loops with images every 15 minutes trying to find the center. Originally (before the sun got high enough to see the low clouds better), I thought that the center looked to be a good bit farther west. But that curvature is now gone. We think we can see some kind of weak LLC near 11.5-12N around 21W near the convective burst. But the convective burst doesn't seem to be rotating around a center, it's just moving off to the northwest.

All in all, I feel a lot better about it not developing the way it appears now. It looked more impressive yesterday.

[HURAKAN]

[Aric Dunn]

I don't see what you're seeing, wxman57... at least not yet (I want to see what you're seeing... I want to watch fireworks on Friday, lol)

We're staring at high-res meteosat loops with images every 15 minutes trying to find the center. Originally (before the sun got high enough to see the low clouds better), I thought that the center looked to be a good bit farther west. But that curvature is now gone. We think we can see some kind of weak LLC near 11.5-12N around 21W near the convective burst. But the convective burst doesn't seem to be rotating around a center, it's just moving off to the northwest.

All in all, I feel a lot better about it not developing the way it appears now. It looked more impressive yesterday.

WELL HERE is the last scat image..

center farther east but not much ..

[Aric Dunn]

it was 6 hours ago .. still shows the convection farther west slightly away from the center. but does not mean it wont refire

[wxman57]

Here's a visible shot from my GARP workstation with where we think a weak LLC may reside (inside red circle). Not very organized. A few thunderstorms barely hanging on, but there doesn't appear to be any inflow to sustain convection near the center.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, this thing is not looking so good this morning. Chances of development definitely appear to have gone down a bit since last night, and unless it can start coming back, it probably will not develop into any thing of significance in the short term.

[boca]

Hey wxman57 this can be a turning point for you.Planning a vacation and 92L not developing.I have my fingers crossed for you.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Hey wxman57 this can be a turning point for you.Planning a vacation and 92L not developing.I have my fingers crossed for you.

No Offense to Wxman but is it me or does anyone else think that Hurricane forecasters should take thier Vacations in off season? LOL

[gatorcane]

So WxMan, I am seeing "It's Dead Jim" in the not so distant future Again, this doesn't surprise me one bit. I'm still sticking with my forecast of a strong tropical wave eventually becoming a pulsating small blob of convection working West across the Atlantic which should be of no concern to any landmass.

Note, I'm sure invests like 92L developed in years past especially long ago. But nobody (cared) or tracked them when they were thousands of miles away from affecting any landmass.

I'm still awaiting mid August. Next invest please.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Hey wxman57 this can be a turning point for you.Planning a vacation and 92L not developing.I have my fingers crossed for you.

No Offense to Wxman but is it me or does anyone else think that Hurricane forecasters should take thier Vacations in off season? LOL

Thats what I was thinking? Anyway if this looks any worst then we can call in Dr.McCoy!

[Category 5]

Hey wxman57 this can be a turning point for you.Planning a vacation and 92L not developing.I have my fingers crossed for you.

No Offense to Wxman but is it me or does anyone else think that Hurricane forecasters should take thier Vacations in off season? LOL

Thats what I was thinking? Anyway if this looks any worst then we can call in Dr.McCoy!

I'm sure he has somebody to replace him. He can take a vacation whenever he chooses. And I'm sure theres better things to talk about then when Wxman should take his vacation.

[Chacor]

It's a bit silly to be attacking Wxman57 for taking a vacation. He/forecasters deserves it just as much, if not more, than anyone else.

[PTrackerLA]

First time I see this today, looks like it's in the *poof* phase now. Next.