TC Bertha

[RL3AO]

Will we get a STDS or just wait until special advisory time?

[Chacor]

"It's Buy or Sell!"

"Panel, buy or sell Tropical Depression Two from this mess?"

[KWT]

Well the facts are it does have a closed low with it, there is some convection near and over the center as well, whilst I think its too early it could be true?

I want to wait and see more proof before believeing the NRL page.

[RL3AO]

"It's Buy or Sell!"

"Panel, buy or sell Tropical Depression Two from this mess?"

*Mute*

[Cyclone1]

That is kinda surprising... I guess it meets the bare definition of TD.

[Chacor]

Well, if there was a real threat to CV and it was a TD I would expect that they issue an STDS saying advisories are being started at 12.

[Derek Ortt]

I think it may be an error on the part of NRL as nothing is in the ATCF.

I am not 100% sure though and this is confusing

[RL3AO]

That is kinda surprising... I guess it meets the bare definition of TD.

It must be because its close to CVI and maybe they expect strengthening?

Arthur came out of nowhere too. We had that guy come on here and say "Arthur at noon" and everyone ripped him because he had no source. He was right.

[Blown Away]

This isn't on ATCF so I'm guessing that if it's real, a special advisory will be issued at 12 pm.

They could be anticipating a possible threat to the Cape Verde islands in that case.

Welcome back MiamiensisWx, we don't want you to just to sit and watch.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well that would be a bit strange for them to upgrade to a TD even though it looks worse now than it did 12 hours ago. However, if they do upgrade, I can't say that I would be that surprised. Based on what I have seen the NHC do in the past, this system could potentially fit what they need for an upgrade. If the NHC received any reports of high winds and believe that there is adequate evidence of a closed LLC, then they would probably go ahead and give it the status of tropical depression.

[Chacor]

I think it may be an error on the part of NRL as nothing is in the ATCF.

I am not 100% sure though and this is confusing

I agree. However, remember that with Arthur, 01L didn't appear in ATCF until after the first advisory.

[gatorcane]

well if is a depression we should get a fully advisory from the NHC will which include the all important discussion package that should let us know where they think it is headed.

[Chacor]

Interestingly, a TCFA was only issued at 12z.

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 021200Z JUL 08//
WTNT01 KNGU 021400Z
UNCLAS //N03146//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 20.0W TO 13.0N
27.0W WITHIN THE 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1009MB IS LOCATED ABOUT 330 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WITH WINDS ON THE
PERIMETER OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 20 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OVER AN AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WEAKER
UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, AND ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, OR CANCELLED BY
031400Z JUL 2008.//

[RL3AO]

I never saw this posted.

[KWT]

Yep this sure is confusing, it did look better last night as well which is making it very confusing indeed, need answers!

extremewx, you are right it probably does just about fit into the NHC definition of a TD but who knows!

Chacor yep the TCFA was issued a few hours ago so its not impossible that they have decided to go for it and up it but we don't know.

[SkyDragon]

I hope this is a strong fishspinner!!!!

[wxman57]

I think it may be an error on the part of NRL as nothing is in the ATCF.

I am not 100% sure though and this is confusing

I agree. However, remember that with Arthur, 01L didn't appear in ATCF until after the first advisory.

And the hour before the NHC named Arthur they put out a statement saying it was inland and weakening. Generally, the NHC will look for persistent organized convection near a well-defined LLC before upgrading. I think there's an LLC, but convection is rather poor and not persistent at all. It did look better 12 hours ago than it does now. Hopefully, it's a mistake at NRL.

[MiamiensisWx]

There's only one way to discern the truth.

Continually refresh the NHC page religiously.

[KWT]

There has been some convection near the LLC wxman57 for a good 6hrs now but I agree I don't think thats long enough to really call that persistant.

[SkyDragon]

You just can wait till 12 and then check NHC every hour after that.