TC Bertha

[gatorcane]

[RL3AO]

There's only one way to discern the truth.

Continually refresh the NHC page religiously.

This is what you want to religiously refresh to get a jump by a few minutes.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/TCMAT2/

[DESTRUCTION5]

Im thinking if it is true there must have been a physical observation or something that made them make this call..Perhaps from the CV's...

[KWT]

Well in this case the policy of not changing the title of this thread till offical word comes into its own on this forum!

The fact that a TCFA was issued earlier today does make it a little more believeable but one of the snippets about this wave said this wave had not organised.

IF it has been upgraded I'd bet that its from a SHIP report or something like that?

[MGC]

No way this is a depression. It looked way better yesterday. I would not be surprised for it to fizzle. Convection has been on the decrease since it moved off the coast. It is just too early despite the warmer than average water temps. I think the SAL to its north is getting into the circulation......MGC

[Chacor]

The thing is, the TCFA was issued only about three hours ago. There's a very late TCFA if there ever was one.

[GeneratorPower]

I am willing to bet there is a new policy at the NHC to start upgrading stuff much sooner than the last few years. Look for this trend to continue.

[MiamiensisWx]

Additionally, if it was truly a glitch, I would not typically expect the "02L NONAME" labeling on the satellite imagery.

[Chacor]

Additionally, if it was truly a glitch, I would not typically expect the "02L NONAME" labeling on the satellite imagery.

It's supposed to be automated. But I can find no 1200z 02L file in the ATCF...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Inside of books and on their own site it says a TD has a closed LLC and at least one isobar around it. That is all. I'm pretty sure this has that! So it is not early.

[RL3AO]

If it has a closed LLC and is close to land, I guess I'm not surprised they upgraded it.

[KWT]

Yep thats a good point MiamiensisWx, its all very confusing still!

MGC, I agree but there is a LLC present and there is convection near or over the top of the estimated center so it probably does meet the criteria for a TD, granted its not at all well organised right now.

[MiamiensisWx]

This recent QuikSCAT pass fully supports the existance of a closed LLC.



There's even one uncontaminated wind barb near 30 (35?) kt, which is close to TS strength. Of course, there is no lower limit to TD classification; it only depends on the verifiable presence of a closed LLC and sufficient organization.

[Aric Dunn]

well its is for sure the earliest that far east formation of a depression .. i have ever seen ..

[MiamiensisWx]

Is it possible that the new determined times for the main advisories also affect the times of the special advisories? If that is the case, the possible special package for this potential TD may not be issued until 1 p.m. EDT.

[Chacor]

It's not a depression until the NHC calls it one, though.

I'll be surprised if we don't get any advisory by 1 at the latest with this up on ATCF, especially if it's really that much of a threat to the CVI.

[Aric Dunn]

Although the image is blurry there is clear evidence of a fairly well defined closed low...





with convection over the center..

[Frank2]

Still, the quickscat observation would place the circulation center at 13N 19W - sounds "fishy" to me...

LOL

[Chacor]

Is it possible that the new determined times for the main advisories also affect the times of the special advisories? If that is the case, the possible special package for this potential TD may not be issued until 1 p.m. EDT.

There are no "new determined times" for "main advisories" though, the only thing that changed in issuance time was the TWOs.

[Cyclone1]

well its is for sure the earliest that far east formation of a depression .. i have ever seen ..

Breaking the old record, Bertha in 1996.

Kinda cool, huh?