TC Bertha

[Janie2006]

Let the wobble wars begin!

My favourite time of the season!


At least it's a fairly impressive wave considering we're still very, very early for Cape Verde storms.

[NDG]

Based on that microwave imagery, the LLC looks to be at 12N 20.5W. That's a bit to the east of the deepest convection (as others have noted), but the imagery also shows a curved band trying to wrap around the south side of the LLC.

With the lack of co-location between the MLC and the LLC, I don't expect classification today, but chances still look good down the road.

You have to keep in mind that the scan was taken over 4 hours ago, compare visible satellite pictures for the same time.

[KWT]

Yep though we can't have a wobble war with an invest surely lol!

Does anyone know how far west a system has to be to put a floater onto the system?

[MiamiensisWx]

Convection is now developing nearly directly over the LLC. I wouldn't dismiss the possibilities for a TD classification late tonight, though tomorrow is more probable.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/images/out/SDDI-20080702-1900-MPEF-09-MPE-04-1237.jpg

The main evidence why I'm not eliminating the chances for an upgrade tonight is the QuikSCAT pass.

[tolakram]

Is this new?



from (temp link):

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[RL3AO]

Is this new?

Not really. Think it came out at 12z.

[ekal]

You have to keep in mind that the scan was taken over 4 hours ago, compare visible satellite pictures for the same time.

You're right about that; I forgot to look at the timestamp. It does look like convection is covering the LLC based on the visibles from NRL.

[KWT]

tolakram the TCFA was issued at 12z today so a little while ago but still is valid till same time tomorrow when we may have another one if it hasn't been upgraded before then, who knows what will happen, we should now see convection slowly become more impressive as we slowly head towards the Dmax.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

02/1745 UTC 12.1N 20.7W T1.0/1.0 02L -- Atlantic Ocean

Sab t numbers now have 2L!

[RL3AO]

02/1745 UTC 12.1N 20.7W T1.0/1.0 02L -- Atlantic Ocean

Sab t numbers now have 2L!

I'm not falling for this again!

[KWT]

Hmm interesting but NRL and everything else says 92L still and after the fun and games about 6hrs ago when we had 02L come up on the NRL page. I still think its a little early for TD2 BUT it does seem to be slowly heading that direction once again after breifly weakening this morning.

[brunota2003]

The funny thing is, that is what it says.

[wxman57]

Based on that microwave imagery, the LLC looks to be at 12N 20.5W. That's a bit to the east of the deepest convection (as others have noted), but the imagery also shows a curved band trying to wrap around the south side of the LLC.

With the lack of co-location between the MLC and the LLC, I don't expect classification today, but chances still look good down the road.

Those images posted above are 6 hours old (1445Z).

[OuterBanker]

Another one to question floaters. About 20 pages ago I asked if GOES has to pick up the td before it becomes a floater? Or does it have to be named a td before becoming a floater?

[RL3AO]

Another one to question floaters. About 20 pages ago I asked if GOES has to pick up the td before it becomes a floater? Or does it have to be named a td before becoming a floater?

GOES can't put a floater on it until it reaches 30W. Also, they put a floater on every invest.

[HURAKAN]

An invest is usually the first step to a floater. I guess 92L is too far east.

[CrazyC83]

T1.0 almost never warrants an upgrade to a TD.

[WmE]

T1.0 almost never warrants an upgrade to a TD.

Sometimes even T1.5 is not enough for an upgrade.

[MiamiensisWx]

02/1745 UTC 12.1N 20.7W T1.0/1.0 02L -- Atlantic Ocean

Sab t numbers now have 2L!

It will be appropriately ironic if 02 NONAME/2L.NONAME manifests itself (again) on the NRL and alternative FNMOC sites tonight.

I can't dispel the nagging feeling that this one may still receive an upgrade later tonight.

[Scorpion]

Looks like we could finally have an active Cape Verde season.. hasn't happened since '04.