TC Bertha

[HURAKAN]

Finally the new area of convection that is developing is an strong one.

[Aric Dunn]

convection increasing:

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... v=400,pp=0

yep that is right over the center as well we will have to see how that turns out? if it end up like the ones from earler today.. but this one looks to be the strongest burst since last night..

[Eyewall]

One thing i notice is that the circulation is very symmetrical. We see disturbances all the time that have oval shaped windfields.

[Tampa_God]

It looks like more convection and better organized to me.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Aric Dunn]

[Thunder44]

Latest Microwave Imagery. Rainbands don't look all that organzied around the center. Looks like it may be still have a broad circulation:

[KWT]

The problem is thunder is we don't have a very large region of deep convection, the area that has just pulsed up is indeed one of the strongest over the last 24hrs however. There is a clear LLC, its been quite eviident on some Sat.images as well as quickscat.

[RL3AO]

Latest Microwave Imagery. Rainbands don't look all that organzied around the center. Looks like it may be still have a broad circulation:

Its more than a board circulation. It has a closed, or nearly closed LLC.

[jaxfladude]

Not to nitpick; but worse looking disturbances in the recent past have been given TD status... *ducks for cover*

[Jason_B]

Not to nitpick; but worse looking disturbances in the recent past have been given TD status... *ducks for cover*

Probably because this thing is so far out there the NHC is not going to jump the gun. Now if this was in the SE Gulf right now off the coast of Florida it would probably be a TD already. JMO

[cycloneye]

The latest quickScat from around 4 hours ago.

[Thunder44]

Latest Microwave Imagery. Rainbands don't look all that organzied around the center. Looks like it may be still have a broad circulation:

Its more than a board circulation. It has a closed, or nearly closed LLC.

That may be so based on the latest QS. But thunderstorms need to be more organzied around the center and persist for awhile again, before NHC would probably upgrade it.

[KWT]

Yep your right thunder its still got a little way to go yet but the direction over the past 6hrs has been towards slightly better organisation but we've got to see that trend continue for a little while. I wonder whether we will see a code red for formation tomorrow?

[cheezyWXguy]

wow theres 40kt barbs in all the quikscats of the last 2 pages...if this can develop and maintain deep convection, it may just be upgraded to ts status.

[MiamiensisWx]

I believe we are finally witnessing the beginning of more sustained and substantive convection over the LLC, since the greatest low level vorticity appears to be occurring in the immediate vicinity.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/images/out/SDDI-20080702-2230-MPEF-09-MPE-04-1237.jpg

I'm still sticking to my unfulfilled guess that we'll see a TD classification tonight.

[KWT]

The most important thing is the convection is actually pretty deep and close if not over the LLC, that should help to strengthen the LLC and that may kick start a new phase of development, the Dmax should only help to continue this.

[wxman57]

Latest Microwave Imagery. Rainbands don't look all that organzied around the center. Looks like it may be still have a broad circulation:

Its more than a board circulation. It has a closed, or nearly closed LLC.

That may be so based on the latest QS. But thunderstorms need to be more organzied around the center and persist for awhile again, before NHC would probably upgrade it.

Broad doesn't mean not closed, it means that the closed circulation covers a large area. And, in this case, the strongest winds are well away from the center.

[CrazyC83]

From the looks of that QuikSCAT image, we have TD2...

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA

[MiamiensisWx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA

They're merely monitoring the duration of the convection. If we observe further persistence (as I expect), that will be the "go" for TD 2.

Does the bolded portion quantitively support Code Orange on your scale?