TC Bertha

#681 Postby **NDG** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 1:26 am

hurricane wrote:Looks like this will be a fish strom going by the computers.

Not all. Because UKMET keeps it weaker, it tracks it further west. But you are right, the consensus is for a recurve to the open Atlantic, at least through day 5.

Aric Dunn · #682 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 1:27 am

NDG wrote:
hurricane wrote:Looks like this will be a fish strom going by the computers.

Not all. Because UKMET keeps it weaker, it tracks it further west. But you are right, the consensus is for a recurve to the open Atlantic, at least through day 5.

add the cmc ..
and euro

#683 Postby **NDG** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 1:30 am

Fego wrote:
NDG wrote:Good chance of being upgraded by 5 AM if not by 11AM at the latest if deep convection continues near LLC, a couple of more hours and the first vis sat pic should come in.

Lets say 8:00 a.m or 2:00 p.m. btw I don't like that change from 5-11 to 2-8.

Upgrades usually come out officially, if no threat to any immidiate land, at 09z, 15z, 21z or 03z.

Jason_B · #684 Postby **Jason_B** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 1:32 am

If it still looks this impressive by tomorrow morning I think the NHC will go ahead and upgrade it. I don't blame them for being so patient with it, after all it's way out there in the middle of nowhere and it's not like it's rapidly intensifying or anything.

Aric Dunn · #685 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 1:35 am

now tell me that does not look like a TD at least..
6z image..

#686 Postby **brunota2003** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 1:36 am

Aric: That does not look like a TD at least. :lol:

Aric Dunn · #687 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 1:36 am

brunota2003 wrote:Aric: That does not look like a TD at least.

lol
funny

Aric Dunn · #688 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 1:37 am

well im off to see the wizard ... see you all tomorrow,...

#689 Postby **brunota2003** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 1:38 am

Night Aric...and yes, it certainly looks to be very close if thee convection is over the LLC.

KWT · #690 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 2:03 am

Well this wave is looking damn good now I think its only a matter of time before we have TD2 now, deep convection right over the LLC and therefore I see no reason why this shouldn't be upgraded, very impressive stuff for early July I think you will agree!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #691 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 2:41 am

03/0545 UTC 12.6N 22.8W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

I disagree, my option is 2.0t+. Also I think the LLC is closer to 12.2 north.

#692 Postby **brunota2003** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 2:42 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:03/0545 UTC 12.6N 22.8W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

I disagree, my option is 2.0t+. Also I think the LLC is closer to 12.2 north.

Which is why daylight is important...soon!

RattleMan · #693 Postby **RattleMan** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 3:13 am

BEGIN
NHC
invest_RENUMBER_al922008_al022008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200807030807
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

There you go.

Chacor · #694 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 3:14 am

I was just looking at ATCF and didn't see it there. Wow.

#695 Postby **bvigal** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 3:15 am

AL, 02, 2008063006, , BEST, 0, 107N, 102W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 02, 2008063018, , BEST, 0, 109N, 128W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 02, 2008070100, , BEST, 0, 110N, 140W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 02, 2008070106, , BEST, 0, 112N, 153W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2008070112, , BEST, 0, 114N, 165W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2008070118, , BEST, 0, 115N, 177W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2008070200, , BEST, 0, 117N, 186W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2008070206, , BEST, 0, 118N, 195W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2008070212, , BEST, 0, 119N, 202W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2008070218, , BEST, 0, 120N, 208W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2008070300, , BEST, 0, 122N, 215W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2008070306, , BEST, 0, 124N, 222W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 210, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, M,

#696 Postby **TheEuropean** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 3:19 am

Here we go: NONAME at NRL

Chacor · #697 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 3:22 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:03/0545 UTC 12.6N 22.8W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

I disagree, my option is 2.0t+. Also I think the LLC is closer to 12.2 north.

Matt, both SAB and TAFB had it at T1.5/1.5 at 0545z. Have you read Dvorak's paper on the technique? If so, fair enough, but otherwise I don't think it's a good idea to give your own T-numbers without the disclaimer. Not saying your numbers are wrong, of course, but it should be prefaced.

#698 Postby **bvigal** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 3:23 am

000
WHXX01 KWBC 030809
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0809 UTC THU JUL 3 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (AL022008) 20080703 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080703 0600 080703 1800 080704 0600 080704 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 22.2W 13.5N 25.3W 14.4N 29.1W 14.8N 32.7W
BAMD 12.4N 22.2W 13.6N 24.5W 14.9N 27.1W 16.4N 30.0W
BAMM 12.4N 22.2W 13.7N 24.8W 15.0N 28.1W 16.2N 31.6W
LBAR 12.4N 22.2W 13.1N 24.3W 14.3N 26.8W 15.6N 29.7W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080705 0600 080706 0600 080707 0600 080708 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 35.8W 17.1N 40.3W 21.8N 45.1W 24.9N 48.6W
BAMD 18.0N 33.1W 21.0N 39.5W 24.6N 44.6W 28.6N 45.7W
BAMM 17.2N 35.0W 19.1N 41.8W 21.7N 46.7W 24.7N 48.0W
LBAR 17.1N 32.8W 20.9N 38.7W 25.5N 42.4W 25.0N 48.1W
SHIP 57KTS 68KTS 73KTS 68KTS
DSHP 57KTS 68KTS 73KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 22.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 20.8W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 19.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Meso · #699 Postby **Meso** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 3:51 am

Large Visible Image of 'TD2' : 08z

Chacor · #700 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 3:59 am

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.7 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...405 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

TC Bertha

Re: INVEST 92L in the Eastern Atlantic

Re: INVEST 92L in the Eastern Atlantic

Re: Re:

Re: INVEST 92L in the Eastern Atlantic

Re: INVEST 92L in the Eastern Atlantic

Re:

Re: INVEST 92L in the Eastern Atlantic

Re: INVEST 92L in the Eastern Atlantic

Re: INVEST 92L in the Eastern Atlantic

Re: INVEST 92L in the Eastern Atlantic

Re: INVEST 92L in the Eastern Atlantic

Re: INVEST 92L in the Eastern Atlantic

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