TC Bertha

[CycloneNL]

02L

[littlevince]

Can anyone provide me a link with steering layers forecast for 5-7 days in Atlantic? (GFS or others)
Thanks.

[weatherwindow]

fyi..per nhc email....0500 3 july 08....td 2 advisory #1...12.6n-22.7w...250mi sse cape verde islands...winds 35mph... 1008mb...movement wnw 9mph....could become ts today...next adv 1100...rich

[alan1961]

Well this wave is looking damn good now I think its only a matter of time before we have TD2 now, deep convection right over the LLC and therefore I see no reason why this shouldn't be upgraded, very impressive stuff for early July I think you will agree!

certainly is for july KWT..i'm from the UK too so happy storm watching ..going to be an active season i think if this is anything to go by

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

I like the historical value!

[Mecklenburg]

i think it will be a category 4 fishie

[Chacor]

Okay, we don't need any people I disagree with right now.

[cycloneye]

I like the historical value!

And when it is named much more historic.

[cycloneye]

AXNT20 KNHC 031048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO. T.D. TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 22.7W...ABOUT
215 NM SSE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AT 03/0900 UTC MOVING WNW
AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION HAS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION AND A COMPACT AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO A
TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST.

[Thunder44]

Just for the record and not to bust up on anybody's beliefs, NHC only waited after 12 hours for convection to persist around the center, to upgrade. This is from their 5am discussion

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A STRONG
BURST OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 12 HOURS NEAR OR JUST
WEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER OF THE SYSTEM

[Lowpressure]

Large Visible Image of 'TD2' : 08z

I really like the sat shot. Keep those coming. Good work.

[hawkeh]

Bring on the fishy storm, I need some surf

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Blown Away]

I wish Accuweather would post their updated forecast track for TD2.

[Cryomaniac]

Okay, we don't need any people I disagree with right now.

I'd rather have them for this than for a hurricane in the gulf of Mexico. If you are bothered, report the post

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac and is not based on any evidence, meteorological, economic or otherwise. As such it should not be used for any purpose.

I think this will almost certainly become a strong TS, maybe a marginal hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

It's very interesting to indicate that while many "people I disagree with" were calling for a tropical depression/storm/hurricane, many experts were calling for the demise of the disturbance. Who won?

I always like the expert opinion but we need to keep our options open.

[wxman57]

Well, I got my wake-up call on this, the first day of vacation I've tried to take in 6 months, at 4am. Had to get out the forecast tracks for the depression. NHC just couldn't wait until after my alarm went off, huh?

Anyway, TD Two looks well on its way to becoming Bertha this afternoon, if it's not already there. Forecast thinking hasn't changed. There's a significant weakness in the ridge to its north once it moves west of 30-35W ahead of that TUTT that extends down to the eastern Caribbean. So it should recurve well east of the Caribbean Sea. The big question is what happens beyond 5-7 days. Bertha could stall for a while, make a loop or two, and then take off to the north and northeast. Currently, the GFS indicates that the ridge will split, allowing the storm to pass well east of Bermuda - no threat to the U.S. I wouldn't completely rule out the storm being trapped by the high off the east U.S. Coast and driven westward, but I think it's a low probability at this point. I don't think that any storm that's formed so far to the east and so far north has ever impacted the Caribbean or the U.S. And with a TUTT in its path, this one won't likely reach the U.S. either.

I'll post a close up of the storm and a few steering level charts from the 00Z GFS:



Mean 700-400mb steering level streamlines valid next Monday:


Mean 700-400mb steering level streamlines valid next Thursday: