TC Bertha

[NDG]

Good chance of being upgraded by 5 AM if not by 11AM at the latest if deep convection continues near LLC, a couple of more hours and the first vis sat pic should come in.

Good morning. Help here, since the NHC publish a TWO and TWD at 2 and 8 (am/pm) every day, why the upgrade to td02 was issued at 5:00 am?

I had explained my post back to you on page 35, as to the time of the day that they usually upgrade systems officially, as long as they are not pose an immidiate threat to any immidiate land they come out with upgrades at 5AM (9z), 11AM(15z), 5PM(21z) or 11PM(3z)

[cycloneye]

Still a depression.

L, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, M,
AL, 02, 2008070312, , BEST, 0, 131N, 242W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 210, 40, 0, 0,

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks good this morning. All we can do now is watch it to see how strong it gets and where it might go. Definitely interesting to see a system so well organized out there in early July.

[z-bail]

Just an amateur here but is it true that if it does develop very quickly and becomes a hurricane very soon then there is a bigger chance that it will head north quickly, correct. As opposed to it developing slowly it may stay on a more westward course? I'm in Florida and I want some waves so I hope it doesn't blow up too quick and then head north before we get any swell...

[Meso]

Large visible image

Image only 1 hour old

[chadtm80]

[cycloneye]

Those are Tropical Storm T numbers:

03/1200 UTC 13.1N 24.0W T2.5/2.5 02L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[RL3AO]

The GFS (and others) have nailed both Arthur/Alma and TD2 over a week in advance.

[MiamiensisWx]

Latest descending QuikSCAT pass:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBds32.png

Note the uncontaminated (violet) 40 kt wind barb S of the center. Hello, Bertha at 11 a.m. EDT?!

In regards to the models, the operational GFS has certainly performed fair and "picked out" multiple cyclogenesis possibilities.

[drezee]

Those are Tropical Storm T numbers:

03/1200 UTC 13.1N 24.0W T2.5/2.5 02L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

indeed they are cycloneye....indeed they are...storm loks quite wrapped this morning a TS is imminent

[RL3AO]

Never mind

[MiamiensisWx]

I don't know if this is an AP or Reuters story or just with the TB Herald...but...wow

Tropical depression forms off African coast

Published Thursday, July 3, 2008 at 4:59 a.m.
Last updated Thursday, July 3, 2008 at 6:09 a.m.

A tropical depression formed off about 170 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands overnight.

At 5 a.m., sustained winds were 35 mph with gusts up to 46 mph. It was heading west at 9 mph but is expected to take a northwesterly path into the mid-Atlantic. It is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm in the next day.

Overnight, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center also started following a second tropical wave for development. At 2 am, the system was located west of St. Lucia, heading northwest at 16 mph with top winds of 23 mph.

Forecast models for that storm take the system west across the Caribbean Sea.


Which models are these? Terrible reporting.

They're referring to 93L.

[cycloneye]

They were talking about 93L.But yes not a great report.

Overnight, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center also started following a second tropical wave for development. At 2 am, the system was located west of St. Lucia, heading northwest at 16 mph with top winds of 23 mph.

[gatorcane]

Yeah on a Miami radio station I was listening to this morning, the talk host said something like: there are several tropical waves being monitored. One of them is near the Cape Verde (as in Verdeeee which is wrong pronunciation)...and she didn't even indicate that it was a depression.

[RL3AO]

I just woke up. You can't expect me to read straight at this hour.

[Thunder44]

Latest descending QuikSCAT pass:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBds32.png

Note the uncontaminated (violet) 40 kt wind barb S of the center. Hello, Bertha at 11 a.m. EDT?!

In regards to the models, the operational GFS has certainly performed fair and "picked out" multiple cyclogenesis possibilities.

Look at the time stamp below.That image is from yesterday afternoon. It was posted here before too.

This one is from earlier this morning. It missed too much of circulation, to conclude the maximum windspeeds from:

[MiamiensisWx]

Look at the time stamp below.That image is from yesterday afternoon. It was posted here before too.

I did peruse the time stamp prior to posting it. I posted it because the date on the top indicated it was July 3.

[ekal]

Yeah on a Miami radio station I was listening to this morning, the talk host said something like: there are several tropical waves being monitored. One of them is near the Cape Verde (as in Verdeeee which is wrong pronunciation)...and she didn't even indicate that it was a depression.

Yeah, well, you can't really expect too much from the power 96 morning show with DJ Laz.

[brunota2003]

Look at the time stamp below.That image is from yesterday afternoon. It was posted here before too.

I did peruse the time stamp prior to posting it. I posted it because the date on the top indicated it was July 3.

They always do a buffer on the images.

[RL3AO]

Um...hello?

BERTHA, AL, L, , , , , 02, 2008, TS, O, 2008070106, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 2, AL022008
AL, 02, 2008063006, , BEST, 0, 107N, 102W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 02, 2008063018, , BEST, 0, 109N, 128W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 02, 2008070100, , BEST, 0, 110N, 140W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 02, 2008070106, , BEST, 0, 112N, 153W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2008070112, , BEST, 0, 114N, 165W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2008070118, , BEST, 0, 115N, 177W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2008070200, , BEST, 0, 117N, 186W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2008070206, , BEST, 0, 118N, 195W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2008070212, , BEST, 0, 119N, 202W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2008070218, , BEST, 0, 120N, 208W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2008070300, , BEST, 0, 123N, 218W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 02, 2008070306, , BEST, 0, 127N, 229W, 30, 1008, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 210, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, M,
AL, 02, 2008070312, , BEST, 0, 131N, 242W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30, 1013, 210, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, M,