TC Bertha

[boca]

Katrina of 2005 wouldn't get thru that shear in the Atlantic.

[KWT]

Of course thats assuming that sort of shear levels will be ther ein about 5 days time, no certainty there. Still there does seem to be a good chance that we shall see some shear in the Atlantic thanks to the small TUTT present which is quite typical for the time of year.

Any welcome to the exceptionally easterly for July tropical storm Bertha!

[Chacor]

One of them is near the Cape Verde (as in Verdeeee which is wrong pronunciation)

Cape Verde is pronounced Cape Ver-dee.

[ekal]

One of them is near the Cape Verde (as in Verdeeee which is wrong pronunciation)

Cape Verde is pronounced Cape Ver-dee.

Cape Verde Audio Help /vɜrd/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[vurd] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–noun a republic consisting of a group of islands (Cape Verde Islands) in the Atlantic, W of Senegal in W Africa: formerly an overseas territory of Portugal; gained independence in 1975. 393,843; 1557 sq. mi. (4033 sq. km). Capital: Praia.

It's actually "vurd," without the vowel sound at the end.

[Cyclone1]

11am advisory any time now.

[Chacor]

One of them is near the Cape Verde (as in Verdeeee which is wrong pronunciation)

Cape Verde is pronounced Cape Ver-dee.

Cape Verde Audio Help /vɜrd/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[vurd] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–noun a republic consisting of a group of islands (Cape Verde Islands) in the Atlantic, W of Senegal in W Africa: formerly an overseas territory of Portugal; gained independence in 1975. 393,843; 1557 sq. mi. (4033 sq. km). Capital: Praia.

It's actually "vurd," without the vowel sound at the end.

There are multiple pronunciations of the word, depending on the root. The French root vert v.s. the Portuguese verde. The latter pronounces the final vowel. Also, since Cape Verde is a Portuguese-speaking country, I'd go with ver-dee.

[brunota2003]

000
WTNT22 KNHC 031452
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2008

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BERTHA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 24.7W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 24.7W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 24.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.8N 26.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.7N 29.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.6N 32.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.6N 35.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.5N 42.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 48.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 25.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 24.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Happy B-day Bertha!

[Cyclone1]

Bertha.

[drezee]

We are all witnesses to history!!!! Welcome aboard...

[MiamiensisWx]

http://www.d3stores.com/ruddos/img/productImages/Callaway%20-%20Big%20Bertha%20460.jpg

[cycloneye]

[MiamiensisWx]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 031458
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008

THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TWO DISTINCT SPIRALING BANDS
OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE 35 KT....THEREFORE THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM...THE SECOND OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON.

RECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES. BECAUSE OF THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
BEFORE. BERTHA IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERTHA WILL APPROACH A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE
GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS THEREFORE SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD TURN
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
FASTER AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS
OF THE GFDL...GFS...HWRF...AND ECMWF MODELS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...HOWEVER...COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD
LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. SSTS ALONG THE TRACK ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AFTER 48 HOURS WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH AGAIN SHOULD HALT STRENGTHENING. THE
SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS PREDICT BERTHA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 72 TO
96 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN A
LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF
SOLUTIONS.

OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 13.3N 24.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 13.8N 26.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 14.7N 29.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 15.6N 32.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 16.6N 35.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 18.5N 42.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 21.5N 48.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 25.0N 52.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Discussion doesn't even mention the records...

[OuterBanker]

Wanna have a little fun. Bertha now posted on TPC. Has Bertha at 135 w and heading wsw (obvious Boris post). Boy it's really flying.

[cycloneye]

HISTORY made!!!! No Matching.

[dizzyfish]

Wow - you don't get to watch history made everyday!

Happy fishing Bertha.

[CrazyC83]

At least it looks like Bertha is going fishing. I still think a hurricane is possible by the weekend.

[KWT]

Yep another historic storm this year (let us not forget tropical storm Alma which was also a very easterly storm).

Anyway we are all seeing another record go, a very easterly cape Verde system even by August's standards I think. Anyway looking very good right now and I suspect we will see some further strengthening over the next 12hrs as the NHC forecast mentions. Now expected to reach 55kts which is a strong tropical storm....we shall see what happens, right now its looking good with a nice little structure to it!

[dwg71]

I would give odds of "fish" storm at 96.8%

[cycloneye]

Now lets see how many days Bertha will be tracking to see how much the ACE rises.

[MiamiensisWx]

Several days of "west" -removed- becomes a stream of "fish" posts with the upgrade.

This place changes its "consensus" on a dime. Can anyone actually maintain a consistent opinion such as myself? I've always stated that I expect recurvature, but it would take place further west than the "heart" of the model guidance. Consistency in one's opinion is essential to good forecasting. It is also beneficial for others, many of whom may become confused because of rapidly changing "views". This should be a place for accurate and steady data.