TC Bertha

[KWT]

Yeah cycloneye should probably push us above average for the time of year I'd have thought!

Who knows Crazy, some of the models are progging to flirt with that strength but who knows really if it can get to the warmer seas without too much shear thats when itds going to have its best chance but it may only reach its peak breifly once shear rises.

Miami I've always said that this would go a little further west then the GFS but it will still recurve.

[dwg71]

Yep another historic storm this year (let us not forget tropical storm Alma which was also a very easterly storm).

Anyway we are all seeing another record go, a very easterly cape Verde system even by August's standards I think. Anyway looking very good right now and I suspect we will see some further strengthening over the next 12hrs as the NHC forecast mentions. Now expected to reach 55kts which is a strong tropical storm....we shall see what happens, right now its looking good with a nice little structure to it!

Historically its not that big of a deal, maybe its a little abnormal. But our reporting and defining methods have evolved over a relatively short time. Storms have been forming in the Atlantic basins for millions of years, and prior to satellites most of it went unnoticed or inaccurately reported.

[OuterBanker]

This strong, this far east almost guarantees fish food. That's a good thing because the only threat that would ever exist would be the east coast. I have to attend a wedding on the 13th in Baltimore, don't have time to deal with it anyway

[CourierPR]

Several days of "west" -removed- becomes a stream of "fish" posts with the upgrade.

This place changes its "consensus" on a dime. Can anyone actually maintain a consistent opinion such as myself?

It really is incredible how the tone of the posts changes with the wind. Pun intended.

[MiamiensisWx]

Several days of "west" -removed- becomes a stream of "fish" posts with the upgrade.

This place changes its "consensus" on a dime. Can anyone actually maintain a consistent opinion such as myself? I've always stated that I expect recurvature, but it would take place further west than the "heart" of the model guidance. Consistency in one's opinion is essential to good forecasting. It is also beneficial for others, many of whom may become confused because of rapidly changing "views". This should be a place for accurate and steady data.

I also concur that this system isn't very anomalous over the long haul. There may have easily been additional July tropical storms within this region in the past, especially during the pre-satellite era and years prior to the 1990s. However, in our "confirmed" records, this is very significant.

[KWT]

dwg71, its a big deal for our records, I agree there probably have been other storms even in the last 50-80 yrs that have formed that far east in July BUT in our record there is no storm even close in July (I think Bertha formed at 35W, this is way east of there!) therefore it is a big deal.

[Thunder44]

Several days of "west" -removed- becomes a stream of "fish" posts with the upgrade.

This place changes its "consensus" on a dime. Can anyone actually maintain a consistent opinion such as myself? I've always stated that I expect recurvature, but it would take place further west than the "heart" of the model guidance. Consistency in one's opinion is essential to good forecasting. It is also beneficial for others, many of whom may become confused because of rapidly changing "views". This should be a place for accurate and steady data.

I'm not convinced of this being a fish storm at all. Especially if it remains relatively weak. The weakness in the ridge on the models looks transient. There's no huge deep layer trough moving off the east coast and the subtropical ridge looks more dominant through the medium range period on the models. That's on top of the medium range models forecasts not being very reliable themselves.

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm not convinced of this being a fish storm at all. Especially if it remains relatively weak. The weakness in the ridge on the models looks transient. There's no huge deep layer trough moving off the east coast and the subtropical ridge looks more dominant through the medium range period on the models. That's on top of the medium range models forecasts not being very reliable themselves.

I do believe that Bermuda should closely monitor Bertha's progress.

[fci]

It's very interesting to indicate that while many "people I disagree with" were calling for a tropical depression/storm/hurricane, many experts were calling for the demise of the disturbance. Who won?

I always like the expert opinion but we need to keep our options open.

You'd better re-check the posts. I don't think any of us pros were saying it would dissipate. I was pointing out that in order to be upgraded by the NHC it would have to develop/maintain deep convection over the center. I said that the window opportunity for development was the first 2-3 days of the invest, when SSTs were warmer. Beyond that, development was less likely.

what else is umm "interesting" is those that call for all invests to develope.. If you call for each and everyone to develope your going to end up being right sometime or another

Along the lines of a broken clock is right twice a day...

[KWT]

Well for Bermuda it may need watching if the weakness is weaker then progged, indeed its not impossible that it misses the weakness but right now I think its still highly likely it will eventually turn to the NW/NNW around 50-55W, any further westward adjustments could bring Bermuda's risk up however.

[Category 5]

Several days of "west" -removed- becomes a stream of "fish" posts with the upgrade.

This place changes its "consensus" on a dime. Can anyone actually maintain a consistent opinion such as myself? I've always stated that I expect recurvature, but it would take place further west than the "heart" of the model guidance. Consistency in one's opinion is essential to good forecasting. It is also beneficial for others, many of whom may become confused because of rapidly changing "views". This should be a place for accurate and steady data.

I feel that point should be highlighted as it is a very good one.

[Derek Ortt]

Bertha is already not a fish storm

it is bringing wind and rain to the Cape Verde Islands

[HarlequinBoy]

Wow I wasn't paying attention the the tropics so this was unexpected.

Regardless this should be a fun one to watch. NHC brings it to 65 MPH with an outside chance of hurricane status according to the wind probability maps.

[brunota2003]

What about us who just like to post our opinions on the system and watch them? Are we just not allowed to post anymore? I thought that was what the TA was for?

[cycloneye]

Cape Verde islands weather:

at Jul 03, 2008 - 11:00 AM EDTJul 03, 2008 - 10:00 AM CDTJul 03, 2008 - 09:00 AM MDTJul 03, 2008 - 08:00 AM PDTJul 03, 2008 - 07:00 AM ADTJul 03, 2008 - 06:00 AM HDT
2008.07.03 1500 UTC
Wind from the E (080 degrees) at 18 MPH (16 KT)
Visibility 4 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity 78%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.91 in. Hg (1013 hPa)
ob GVAC 031500Z 08016KT 7000 FEW013 SCT015 BKN100 26/22 Q1013 NOSIG

[MiamiensisWx]

What about us who just like to post our opinions on the system and watch them? Are we just not allowed to post anymore? I thought that was what the TA was for?

My post was alluding to consistency in the posts/analyses, instead of changing them based on marginal evidence. Obviously, thoughts change, which is essential in meteorology. However, they should be backed by sufficient evidence in the synoptic pattern; if it supports or disproves the models' trends, it should be taken into account. Many people here alter their views based on one discussion from the NHC, one "wobble" (many of which are false), etc.

In regards to Bertha, it appears that the strongest winds will remain south of the Cape Verde islands, though high gusts are very probable.

Edit: Supporting evidence

This post is NOT an official prognosis.

I'll summarize the situation with Bertha.

I can see the arguments for a more "extreme" west track, and I definitely lean toward a solution along the western flank of the model "cluster", but I still expect recurvature. A deepening H5 trough will likely suppress the western extent of the Azores ridge, as seen on the 12Z GFS around 36 hours. A few shortwave impulses at H7 will likely weaken the ridging at the lower levels as well. At the same time, the upper low will remain in place over the central North Atlantic and gradually transition to a weak mid-latitude trough. I do not always place undue "stock" into any particular model, but I believe the operational GFS has a good initialization of the upper air pattern. The main caveat is the intensification and deepening trends of Bertha. This is one of those situations where there is minimal shear in the short term, which would present a conducive environment for deepening, but the thermodynamics are more questionable. Personally, I believe Bertha may easily be weaker than indicated by the TPC's intensity forecast. There is a persistent temp inversion at 700 mb to the west and WNW of the cyclone, which is capping convection. This is associated with the SAL in the vicinity. Visible imagery also indicates the presence of low level dust immediately adjacent to the TC. Therefore, as Bertha moves WNW, intensification may be more "timid" than indicated by the NHC. With strong low level ridging to the north, a track along the southern end of the guidance "cluster" seems reasonable. Later, as Bertha interacts with strong divergence in the central Atlantic, it will likely weaken and possibly dissipate in the vicinity. Similar situations (see Barry '89) have resulted in analogous final scenarios.

Note: The reference to Barry '89 is the dissipation in the open Atlantic

[KWT]

Its a fish so as its not likely to actually make landfall Derek but granted the bands are effecting the Cape Verde's and may if the system gets far enough west have to be watched in Bermuda but doesn't look like no major land mass is going to get a landfall, of course its fair to say you don't need landfall for severe effects.

[Steve]

>>Its a fish so as its not likely to actually make landfall Derek but granted the bands are effecting the Cape Verde's and may if the system gets far enough west have to be watched in Bermuda but doesn't look like no major land mass is going to get a landfall, of course its fair to say you don't need landfall for severe effects.

Possibly. But there is a giant ridge of high pressure across the entirety of the northern Atlantic. ECMWF and UKMET prog a weakening system moving along the southern periphery of that high. If that's the case, stay tuned for the future. If the high is legit, as progged, I don't care what type of system or non-system it becomes, no way can it penetrate that and head poleward unless it was to break down or be pierced/busted by some kind of trough from the north. That's simple laws of physics IMHO. Not saying what will or what won't happen, but look at the high as progged on all models.

Steve

[cycloneye]

I would not say is a fish apart from the CV islands as Bermuda may or may not be on the track.If it tracks well away from that island then is a real fish.

[fci]

What about us who just like to post our opinions on the system and watch them? Are we just not allowed to post anymore? I thought that was what the TA was for?

My post was alluding to consistency in the posts/analyses, instead of changing them based on marginal evidence. Obviously, thoughts change, which is essential in meteorology. However, they should be backed by sufficient evidence in the synoptic pattern; if it supports or disproves the models' trends, it should be taken into account. Many people here alter their views based on one discussion from the NHC, one "wobble" (many of which are false), etc.

In regards to Bertha, it appears that the strongest winds will remain south of the Cape Verde islands, though high gusts are very probable.

Daniel:
I think your post was too harsh.
This is not the Tropical Analysis board where only the 'experts" can speak and those DO speak with consistency.
This is the Talkin Tropics board where people should not be scared to post what they think even if it is not "consistent" enough for you.
Oh, and I did not make any predictions so I am an independent "lurker" on this thread; but I think you are a little too indignant and condescending in your post.
My $.02 and the last I will say about it.
fci