TC Bertha

[KWT]

The thing is Steve thats just a surface ridge, its fairly strong but above that at the steering levels ther eis progged to be a fairly chunky weakness the system can get through and the surface ridge would be split in half eventually.

Its not totally impossible that it closes off before the storm can get through and you are right the ECM and UKMO do keep it heading further west as the weakness isn't as pronouced.

PS, I think this system will be like a more easterly version of barry 89, but about 15 degrees further east lol!

[Fego]

Here an honest and serious petition for the pro's whose analyzed that it wouldn't develope at all (92L). Based in those explanations that were posted, what changed o what did happen that today we have a tropical storm instead of a tropical wave with circulation or a llc without significant convection?. Again, is a sincere question with the only purpose of get a professional and technical answer. I have so much respect for all the Pro Met's here and I'm thankful that they share their valuable knowledge with us... just for the record.

[Steve]

>>I would not say is a fish apart from the CV islands as Bermuda may or may not be on the track.If it tracks well away from that island then is a real fish.

Again, look at the giant high pressure encompassing the bulk of the Atlantic that is expected to be there. Either the models, outside of ECMWF/NOGAPS/UKMET have the high wrong or they have Bertha wrong. It can't be both ways. There is no way any of their scenarios are possible the way they have the systems expressed. None. 0%.

Steve

[MiamiensisWx]

I think your post was too harsh.
This is not the Tropical Analysis board where only the 'experts" can speak and those DO speak with consistency.
This is the Talkin Tropics board where people should not be scared to post what they think even if it is not "consistent" enough for you.
Oh, and I did not make any predictions so I am an independent "lurker" on this thread; but I think you are a little too indignant and condescending in your post.
My $.02 and the last I will say about it.
fci

That's fair, and I'll apologize to others if my post presented an aura of harshness. I'll clarify that I certainly wasn't irritated or arrogant, but my wording and verbage was quite poor. I guess the main reason is because I simply do not have the meteorological background to post in TA, though I am well informed.

I will admit I'm too consistent with the straightforward bluntness in my analyses. Therefore, I often unintentionally present myself as "brash" to others, though that isn't the original intent.

Again, apologies to others if the aforementioned post appeared too stringent.

[stormchazer]

What about us who just like to post our opinions on the system and watch them? Are we just not allowed to post anymore? I thought that was what the TA was for?

My post was alluding to consistency in the posts/analyses, instead of changing them based on marginal evidence. Obviously, thoughts change, which is essential in meteorology. However, they should be backed by sufficient evidence in the synoptic pattern; if it supports or disproves the models' trends, it should be taken into account. Many people here alter their views based on one discussion from the NHC, one "wobble" (many of which are false), etc.

In regards to Bertha, it appears that the strongest winds will remain south of the Cape Verde islands, though high gusts are very probable.

Daniel:
I think your post was too harsh.
This is not the Tropical Analysis board where only the 'experts" can speak and those DO speak with consistency.
This is the Talkin Tropics board where people should not be scared to post what they think even if it is not "consistent" enough for you.
Oh, and I did not make any predictions so I am an independent "lurker" on this thread; but I think you are a little too indignant and condescending in your post.
My $.02 and the last I will say about it.
fci

My sentiments exactly. I thought the moderators were the conscience of the board. Your post are very informative and have great analysis but your "halo" is looking a bit tarnished. This is why I would not think of posting an opinion on the board anymore, and if you look at my stats, you can see that was not always the case.

Anyways, pardon my frustration! Looks like Bertha is going to be a pretty storm. Nice looking and classic with "little" effect on land. Just like we should all like them.

After seeing Miami's further post, I withdraw my frustrations. On with Bertha!

[KWT]

>>I would not say is a fish apart from the CV islands as Bermuda may or may not be on the track.If it tracks well away from that island then is a real fish.

Again, look at the giant high pressure encompassing the bulk of the Atlantic that is expected to be there. Either the models, outside of ECMWF/NOGAPS/UKMET have the high wrong or they have Bertha wrong. It can't be both ways. There is no way any of their scenarios are possible the way they have the systems expressed. None. 0%.

Steve

Interesting to note looking at the ECM upper air charts there is still a weakness but its a lot more broad and not nearly as strong as the GFS, a weak system could miss it and just carry on to the WNW like it does on the ECM, however it is still sheared at the mid-levels hence why the ECM totally destroys the system in the end.

[brunota2003]

Either way, Bertha is pretty much doomed from the start.

It turns into the weakness, shear and cold waters quickly kill it off.

It misses the weakness and runs head on into Mr. TUTT, need I say more?

[Blown Away]

What about us who just like to post our opinions on the system and watch them? Are we just not allowed to post anymore? I thought that was what the TA was for?

My post was alluding to consistency in the posts/analyses, instead of changing them based on marginal evidence. Obviously, thoughts change, which is essential in meteorology. However, they should be backed by sufficient evidence in the synoptic pattern; if it supports or disproves the models' trends, it should be taken into account. Many people here alter their views based on one discussion from the NHC, one "wobble" (many of which are false), etc.

In regards to Bertha, it appears that the strongest winds will remain south of the Cape Verde islands, though high gusts are very probable.

I respectfully disagree, this is not the "Tropical Analysis" board and yes people can make a prediction on weather w/o being "backed by sufficient evidence in the synoptic pattern". The beauty of this forum is that it combines fun with science. The back and forth predictions comments are entertaining and when they get out of control a pro will step in and provide logic. Most are here to be entertained and learn a little somehting about the weather, loosen up the tie a little and enjoy.

[MiamiensisWx]

I respectfully disagree, this is not the "Tropical Analysis" board and yes people can make a prediction on weather w/o being "backed by sufficient evidence in the synoptic pattern". The beauty of this forum is that it combines fun with science. The back and forth predictions comments are entertaining and when they get out of control a pro will step in and provide logic. Most are here to be entertained and learn a little somehting about the weather, loosen up the tie a little and enjoy.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1727465#p1727465

Unfortunately, I succumb to the mentality to "set the record straight" on many occasions. That's the inherent flaw of knowledge, and I must continually remain vigilant to avoid suppressing the more "unconforming" opposing views. Those views are encouraged here as well, as you mentioned.

[KWT]

Either way, Bertha is pretty much doomed from the start.

It turns into the weakness, shear and cold waters quickly kill it off.

It misses the weakness and runs head on into Mr. TUTT, need I say more?

In many ways though you could say that for every single storm that forms, all are doomed from the start to decay and die away!
I suspect we will see this system become a fairly strong tropical storm eventually and there does seem to be some good agreement of a strength between 50-60kts. Of course the exact track is still a little uncertain so we will have to see what happens with that.

[brunota2003]

Either way, Bertha is pretty much doomed from the start.

It turns into the weakness, shear and cold waters quickly kill it off.

It misses the weakness and runs head on into Mr. TUTT, need I say more?

In many ways though you could say that for every single storm that forms, all are doomed from the start to decay and die away!
I suspect we will see this system become a fairly strong tropical storm eventually and there does seem to be some good agreement of a strength between 50-60kts. Of course the exact track is still a little uncertain so we will have to see what happens with that.

Indeed Death after Life for these storms are expected...haha

[Category 5]

What about us who just like to post our opinions on the system and watch them? Are we just not allowed to post anymore? I thought that was what the TA was for?

My post was alluding to consistency in the posts/analyses, instead of changing them based on marginal evidence. Obviously, thoughts change, which is essential in meteorology. However, they should be backed by sufficient evidence in the synoptic pattern; if it supports or disproves the models' trends, it should be taken into account. Many people here alter their views based on one discussion from the NHC, one "wobble" (many of which are false), etc.

In regards to Bertha, it appears that the strongest winds will remain south of the Cape Verde islands, though high gusts are very probable.

I respectfully disagree, this is not the "Tropical Analysis" board and yes people can make a prediction on weather w/o being "backed by sufficient evidence in the synoptic pattern". The beauty of this forum is that it combines fun with science. The back and forth predictions comments are entertaining and when they get out of control a pro will step in and provide logic. Most are here to be entertained and learn a little somehting about the weather, loosen up the tie a little and enjoy.

To support your prediction adds good information to the conversation and gives you credibility. The people who come out with one sentence posts "This is definately a TD" or "This will become a Hurricane" without supporting anything take credibility out of a thread. As does trying your hardest to forecast a storm to go where you want it to (don't deny that this happens).

Supporting predictions with facts makes the board look better as a whole.

[chadtm80]

[Category 5]

Either way, Bertha is pretty much doomed from the start.

It turns into the weakness, shear and cold waters quickly kill it off.

It misses the weakness and runs head on into Mr. TUTT, need I say more?

In many ways though you could say that for every single storm that forms, all are doomed from the start to decay and die away!
I suspect we will see this system become a fairly strong tropical storm eventually and there does seem to be some good agreement of a strength between 50-60kts. Of course the exact track is still a little uncertain so we will have to see what happens with that.

Indeed Death after Life for these storms are expected...haha

They're like people, they ruin every place they visit.

Wind sheer doesn't get charged with murder though.

[cycloneye]

Supporting predictions with facts makes the board look better as a whole.

That is what we always promote here.

[Dean4Storms]

I've always understood the term "Fish storm" to mean no center crossing land. If a storm's eye turns out northward to sea with a ThundersStorm band brushing the NE Carib. islands it is usually considered a Fish Storm.

I know we are splitting hairs here but the I think the term "Fish Storm" will apply to Bertha if she follows the forecast.

[fci]

"To support your prediction adds good information to the conversation and gives you credibility. The people who come out with one sentence posts "This is definately a TD" or "This will become a Hurricane" without supporting anything take credibility out of a thread. As does trying your hardest to forecast a storm to go where you want it to (don't deny that this happens).

Supporting predictions with facts makes the board look better as a whole."


Well put.
Even support like citing something that happened in the past or some trail of logic is OK.
I completely agree that the one line statements are useless and border on "trolling".

[Category 5]

One things almost certain. This thing isn't going to take off. Despite the low sheer, the Heat Content is not good for significant strengthening.

[dwg71]

Definition of the term "Fish" for purposes of storm2K.

A fish storm is one that avoids landfall with North, Central or South America and recurves north to the Atlantic and eventually NE.

Though we know that many islands are effected by the storm, it avoids mainland USA. Its not an arogant point of view nor are we discounting the tragedy that these fish storms have on islands such as Bermuda, we are just using a term that everyone can understand.

[Category 5]

A fish storm is a storm that's eye/center never touches land anywhere. Islands included, since islands are land too.