TC Bertha

[KWT]

curtadams, the thing is even if ships went through the tropical storms unless they went right through the center it could have been mistaken for just a tropical wave or a large region of thunderstorms, many could have been missed because of things like that.

Hopefully we won't have long to wait till we can finally get a floater on Bertha and get frequant images through the main site rather then going through other sites that I've not got the links to lol.

[Aric Dunn]

well on a side note... at least later tonight bertha will be in view of goes so we will get a floater later today maybe....

[Cryomaniac]

I completely agree that the one line statements are useless and border on "trolling".

A one line statement in itself isn't trolling. It's not a good post, but it's not really trolling. Saying that you want a storm to hit a major population centre as a Cat 5 would be trolling.


The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological, economic or otherwise. As such it should not be used for any purpose

As for Bertha, I stand by my earlier post that it could become a marginal hurricane, of course anything can happen.

[KWT]

Hmm I think there may be a small window for decent strengthening around 96-120hrs as it heads back into the warmer waters again and before the shear starts to increase again but at this stage in the season I suspect it will eventually run into a major shear pocket but we will see I suppose.

Aric, thats what I'm waiting for as well to be honest!

[alan1961]

I completely agree that the one line statements are useless and border on "trolling".

A one line statement in itself isn't trolling. It's not a good post, but it's not really trolling. Saying that you want a storm to hit a major population centre as a Cat 5 would be trolling.


The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological, economic or otherwise. As such it should not be used for any purpose

As for Bertha, I stand by my earlier post that it could become a marginal hurricane, of course anything can happen.

Hey cryomaniac, i'm not too far from you

[Aric Dunn]

this is still the best loop to look at for visible anyway..
it really starting to show some good banding features..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m8vis.html

[wxmann_91]

Either way, Bertha is pretty much doomed from the start.

It turns into the weakness, shear and cold waters quickly kill it off.

It misses the weakness and runs head on into Mr. TUTT, need I say more?

Spot on. Can't believe this storm will make it past 60W. I don't know why we're having the fish definition argument.

[Cryomaniac]

Hey cryomaniac, i'm not too far from you

Cool, it's good to see a few Brits on here.

[KWT]

Yeah Aric I notice that as well though convection has decreased a little as it continues to head into slightly less heat content as well as the Dmin, if this system behaves like it has done over the last few days we should see convection really increase again in about 4hrs time.

[hial2]

Either way, Bertha is pretty much doomed from the start.

It turns into the weakness, shear and cold waters quickly kill it off.

It misses the weakness and runs head on into Mr. TUTT, need I say more?

Spot on. Can't believe this storm will make it past 60W. I don't know why we're having the fish definition argument.

Interesting...yesterday the concensus was for Bertha to turn @ 45W..

[HURAKAN]

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 JUL 2008 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 13:26:20 N Lon : 25:07:46 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 3.0 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -43.4C Cloud Region Temp : -42.5C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[fci]

Yep, political correctness strikes again, I guess its insensitive profiling to call a Fish Storm a Fish Storm now!

Political Correctness seems to be a "buzz phrase" to ridicule someone's stance on an issue or a statement made.
This is the case quite often but not here.

Questioning the use of the word "fish" has nothing to do with being politically correct.
The definition given earlier by someone was simply wrong when it allowed for the classification of a system as a "fish" even if it struck an island..

Please don't chalk it up to "political correctness". Too many things said today DO get challenged for political correctness but since this forum is for weather and strictly forbids "political" talk, I will not get into examples here

[Aric Dunn]

the hwrf shifted way west and calls fro no turn,,...
given that the nhc based their forecast of the blend of the gfs hwrf and something else .. i imagine the next package they will adjust it again ..

[Aric Dunn]

[KWT]

Certainly hints of banding there Aric on that image, also estimate from one of the agencies upto 2.8 which would justify upping the winds to 40kts, though they may yet hold at 35kts and see how the system evolves.

[OuterBanker]

"We do encourage both the rankest of amatuers all the way to the highest level pro-mets to use this forum"

Thanks, but I now feel as if I have to shower

[cycloneye]

From the 2:05 PM EDT Discussion from TPC.Maybe this is what may cause Bertha to move more NW with time.

.AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NEAR
33N54W WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING S TO NEAR PUERTO RICO. LARGE
SCALE RIDGING HOLDS E OF THERE WITH AN UPPER HIGH POSITIONED
NEAR 21N43W. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

AT THE SFC...A PAIR OF QUASI-STATIONARY HIGHS...ONE 1028 MB HIGH\
IS CENTERED NEAR 35N40W...THE OTHER A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
34N58W IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ERN AND CENTRAL ATLC. ONLY EXCEPTION IS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG 47W N OF 22N (ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MENTIONED
ABOVE) WHICH IS WEAKENING THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY AND PRODUCING
LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS IN ITS VICINITY.

$$
WALTON/HUFFMAN

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[JonathanBelles]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 070308

Tropical Storm Bertha has formed in the far east Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands. 93L is not of much interest at this time.



Far Eastern Atlantic....Tropical Storm Bertha. This is the primary watch area at this time. Bertha should continue to the west northwest at 14-16mph for the short term. In the long term, there may be a turn to the north, and further a curve out to sea. If you are in the northeasternmost Caribbean islands or in Bermuda, you should be watching this system. Slow trending of the models lead me to think that Bertha will be on the southern side of both the NHC and my own cone of uncertainty. If and when there is a curve, it will curve because of a weakness in the Bermuda High/ridge or because of the (beautiful) trough lurking off the east coast of the United States. High shear and marginal sea surface temperatures will keep this system from becoming a hurricane. At max, I think Bertha will become a strong tropical storm with winds of 65mph in the Central Atlantic on Sunday or Monday. I think that other than the Cape Verde Islands, land should remain relatively unscathed.

Eastern Caribbean....Invest 93L. This system is not expected to develop because of 20-40kts of vertical wind shear. Invest should be dropped in the next few days with a window of opportunity mid next week.

Fact789...Jonathan

Any comments, positive or negative would be appreciated.

[KWT]

Yep thats the feature cycloneye, you can see its surface reflection at times on the GFS run and this allows the system to turn to the NW/NNW once it gets around 45W, also that upper low is what starts to shear the system according to some forecasts I've seen.

[NDG]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am not ready to buy on Bertha staying strong and staying as a fish storm, more and more the Euro & UKMET track is starting to make sense to me, and here is why:
As Bertha continuous tracking between 30W & 40W responding to a weakness to her NW she will start gaining latitude, getting her into much cooler waters which should at least keep her as a weak or moderate TS, thus not responding to the mid level weakness as much. Pass 40W, where she could once again start gaining strength in warmer SST, the mid Atlantic troughiness will start lifting north as a huge trough develops just west of Europe pushing the eastern Atlantic center ridge westward, in the mean time most models keep a ridge strong over or in the vicinity of Bermuda, she misses the trough and she will get steered westward by the Bermuda ridge off the eastern US westward north of the Windward islands towards the Bahamas in a weaker form because of stronger shear.
Another thing is that this is early July, when usually the Atlantic ridge is much stronger than if it was to be in September.