TC Bertha

[gatorcane]

back tomorrow morning

I wouldn't count on it. The expected decrease in convection is finally starting to happen as SSTs and SAL are starting to take their toll. It took a bit later than I thought and I'm somewhat surprised it reached TS status but I expect it to just barely hang on....then get hit by shear down the road allowing it to continue WNW as a weak system. I would be shocked if it ever makes it to hurricane status.

Disclaimer: this is not endorsed by storm2k and is solely the opinion of the poster

[KWT]

Possibly Gatorcane though you can't deny its got a good structure, even if convection does decrease once it gets back into higher heat content around 60hrs time that convection has every chance of increasing again at least for a little while, then indeed shear may yet increase.

Still its done more then you thought it would and this far east you don't tend to expect anything so even if it did decay it hardly would be unexpected. Still we shall see!

[Eyewall]

Disclaimer: this is not endorsed by storm2k and is solely the opinion of the poster

oops forgot to mention that thanks

[Ivanhater]

I would just like to give props to the GFS..it is 2 for 2 so far this year..it has been spot on development of both storms well in advance..looks like that upgrade did some good...

[cycloneye]

I would just like to give props to the GFS..it is 2 for 2 so far this year..it has been spot on development of both storms well in advance..looks that upgrade did some good...

Go to the thread Long Range Models at Talking tropics and look what GFS has in the future.

[gatorcane]

GFS has done well so far I agree with that. Let's see if it is right with the rest of Bertha's life or not which has her deepening into possibly a hurricane or strong TS and recurving out around 55W.

[gatorcane]

This WV loop is an excellent study of the current situation with Bertha:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

What we see is the following:

1) A ridge above Bertha that is building West (see area above Bertha between 20N and 30N. The orange area is pushing SW). That will keep Bertha on a WNW to even West track for the next 2-3 days.
2) Strong Upper-level winds around 50W on the upper-right hand corner of the loop. You can see the high-clouds streaming quickly SW to NE. That should keep Bertha at check in the long-run.
3) The ULL moving NW at the upper-right hand corner of the screen where the high-clouds are from 2).....that is what the GFS thinks will create the break in the ridge around 55W in 4-5 days.

[Emmett_Brown]

This is an interesting storm indeed. A couple of observations:

- I think in previous recent years, this storm would not have been classified at this stage. NHC seemed to wait longer, and probably with good reason. Lacking data, it would be harder to justify upgrading. But with tools like quickscat, it is possible to detect storms earlier, leading to earlier naming of storms close to the coast. I am not implying that these are not legitimate storms... i am saying that NHC is getting better at detecting them.

- This has also led to more storms being classified, and then subsequently declassified as they hit poor conditions... only to be reclassified later when they regenerated further westard over warmer waters. I think this happens more these days then it used to.

He is my mad scientist best guess at what will happen:

1. Bertha will still be a weak TS for a day or 2, before it degenerates to an open wave
2. The remnant wave will head West
3. The wave will approach the Carribean later in the week
4. Chance of regeneration will be slim, because of the Tutt that dominates the Carribean... we may see Bertha attempt to come back in the Western Carribean, only to continue into the Pacific, where conditions this time of year are much more favorable.

Overall, this storm does send a signal that an active Cape Verde season is on tap.

Just is all just my opinion of course...

[storms in NC]

This WV loop is an excellent study of the current situation with Bertha:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

What we see is the following:

1) A ridge above Bertha that is building West (see area above Bertha between 20N and 30N. The orange area is pushing SW). That will keep Bertha on a WNW to even West track for the next 2-3 days.
2) Strong Upper-level winds around 50W on the upper-right hand corner of the loop. You can see the high-clouds streaming quickly SW to NE. That should keep Bertha at check in the long-run.
3) The ULL moving NW at the upper-right hand corner of the screen where the high-clouds are from 2).....that is what the GFS thinks will create the break in the ridge around 55W in 4-5 days.

Last two years they have had trouble with the ridges. They would say it would weaken and didn't happen. The ridges stayed strong enough to keep the stroms from making the turn.

[cycloneye]

03/2345 UTC 13.9N 26.4W T2.5/2.5 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[ronjon]

I'm sorry I just don't see how Bertha gets to be a 60 mph storm in 2 days and near hurricane strength in 3 days per NHC. While the overall storm has good structure and circulation, there is not a heavy concentrated area of convection. In fact, I'd almost say it was weakening compared to this morning. The stratocumulus to its west and the marginal SSTs should keep it in check and it may just maintain TD or weak TS strength for the next 4-5 days. I think GFS is overdoing development - I'm starting to side with the Euro, UKMET, and HWRF on the future intensity and path of Bertha.

[Gustywind]

This WV loop is an excellent study of the current situation with Bertha:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

What we see is the following:

1) A ridge above Bertha that is building West (see area above Bertha between 20N and 30N. The orange area is pushing SW). That will keep Bertha on a WNW to even West track for the next 2-3 days.
2) Strong Upper-level winds around 50W on the upper-right hand corner of the loop. You can see the high-clouds streaming quickly SW to NE. That should keep Bertha at check in the long-run.
3) The ULL moving NW at the upper-right hand corner of the screen where the high-clouds are from 2).....that is what the GFS thinks will create the break in the ridge around 55W in 4-5 days.

Last two years they have had trouble with the ridges. They would say it would weaken and didn't happen. The ridges stayed strong enough to keep the stroms from making the turn.

Absolutely, you're right man, i noticed the same thing, remember Dean las year...strong ridge do not allow for any recurve and briefly wsw movement too, it's something pertinent to keep in mind maybe this year too... as we bet records

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031941
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST THU JUL 3 2008


TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...
CONTINUED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS IT GETS PULLED
NORTHWARD BY A WEAKNESS IN THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS
WEAKNESS WILL BE INDUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN LATEST WV
IMAGERY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEAK AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER ...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY AS THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THIS WEAKNESS IN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MATERIALIZING. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL STORM (TCPAT2)
BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA.

[NDG]

I am still not going with any of the GFS runs' sypnotic setups, it wants to build a ridge across the MS river valley late next week, thus for a trough to go out the US NE coast pushing a trough just north of Bermuda, when we know that the western Atlantic Bermuda ridge has been unbreakable for the last few weeks. Any kind of troughs pushing through the eastern US have been getting stuck near the east coast, thus keeping the eastern half of the US in a troughiness pattern and a ridge near Bermuda. And that's why I do not see Bertha gaining much more latitude after nearing 60W in a few days and that is if stays at least as a mod TS, if it weakens down to a TD or strong wave, then a more westward track would make even more sense.

[cycloneye]

The 00.00 models increase the winds to 40kts.

WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD =

[RL3AO]

They kept the pressure the same though.

AL, 02, 2008070400, , BEST, 0, 133N, 263W, 40, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30, 1012, 170, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA, M,

[Chacor]

AL, 02, 2008070400, , BEST, 0, 133N, 263W, 40, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30, 1012, 170, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA, M,

[cycloneye]

Looking good.

[Tampa_God]

I dont think it gained strength at all, just got its act together I think.

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 JUL 2008 Time : 004500 UTC
Lat : 13:49:35 N Lon : 26:23:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.4mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.3 3.3 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -52.1C Cloud Region Temp : -47.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF