Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

[MiamiensisWx]

Bertha goes to Florida:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_204l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_252l.gif

[crownweather]

One thing that came to mind is the GFS model forecast progs of I believe either Hurricane Dean or Felix of last year. If I remember right, the GFS model progged the hurricane as a open wave, but in reality it was a Cat 5 hurricane. So, I don't put much faith in the "intensity" forecast of the global models, just the idea that it may be in that vicinity.

[MiamiensisWx]

One thing that came to mind is the GFS model forecast progs of I believe either Hurricane Dean or Felix of last year. If I remember right, the GFS model progged the hurricane as a open wave, but in reality it was a Cat 5 hurricane. So, I don't put much faith in the "intensity" forecast of the global models, just the idea that it may be in that vicinity.

Agreed 100 percent in regards to the intensity forecasts.

[Aric Dunn]

so what happened to the SFWMD model page it wont update anyone else having that problem? i cant make the animations without it unless someone else knows of a good site with some spaghetti models that updates quick and is clear

[Aric Dunn]

One thing that came to mind is the GFS model forecast progs of I believe either Hurricane Dean or Felix of last year. If I remember right, the GFS model progged the hurricane as a open wave, but in reality it was a Cat 5 hurricane. So, I don't put much faith in the "intensity" forecast of the global models, just the idea that it may be in that vicinity.

Agreed 100 percent in regards to the intensity forecasts.

very much agree.. that is actually the case 90 percent of the time...

[x-y-no]

Bertha goes to Florida:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_204l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_252l.gif

Actually that still looks like it would recurve offshore.

[Aric Dunn]

so what happened to the SFWMD model page it wont update anyone else having that problem? i cant make the animations without it unless someone else knows of a good site with some spaghetti models that updates quick and is clear

SO???? anyone else

['CaneFreak]

Absolutely no clue Aric...thats what I hate about the SFWMD page....

[Extremeweatherguy]

so what happened to the SFWMD model page it wont update anyone else having that problem? i cant make the animations without it unless someone else knows of a good site with some spaghetti models that updates quick and is clear

SO???? anyone else

I've noticed the problem too and it is bothering me as well. I don't know what's going on.

[Blown Away]

Bertha goes to Florida:
l]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_204l.gif[/url]
rl]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_252l.gif[/url]

Title is a bit misleading, hour 204 is about 300 miles E of SFL and hour 252 is near NY.

[Aric Dunn]

Absolutely no clue Aric...thats what I hate about the SFWMD page....

yeah but there spaghetti models are better


this moves to much i like the others cause it was zoomed out more and the lines were thinner .. oh well maybe it will work later

[Aric Dunn]

interesting though on that last loop there the DEEP BAM which was consistently showing re curve has straightened out and moved even more west than some of the others.. which tells me even if the bertha was deeper it may not get picked up right away

[Extremeweatherguy]

Bertha goes to Florida:
l]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_204l.gif[/url]
rl]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_252l.gif[/url]

Title is a bit misleading, hour 204 is about 300 miles E of SFL and hour 252 is near NY.

Actually what you are seeing near NY is not Bertha. If you look at the GFS run closely, you can see that the weakening Bertha slowly drifts around the vicinity of the bahamas between hour 204 and hour 252..

hr. 204 - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif
hr. 216 - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif
hr. 228 - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif
hr. 240 - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif
hr. 252 - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif

['CaneFreak]

Absolutely no clue Aric...thats what I hate about the SFWMD page....

yeah but there spaghetti models are better


this moves to much i like the others cause it was zoomed out more and the lines were thinner .. oh well maybe it will work later

Oh, I agree. I love their skinny lined spaghetti plots too but they never update the dang thing. I use the page you just uploaded more than any other page.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah see the other used to always update than they put it into that new format so now it weird.. but yesterday it was working fine ....

[Stratosphere747]

[tailgater]

Do these help any
http://www.crownweather.com/al02model.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Do these help any
http://www.crownweather.com/al02model.gif

they could if it updates consistently

[Aric Dunn]

where did you find that image.. i know its from FSU but what is the parent link..

[Aric Dunn]

nevermind found it..