TC Bertha

[gatorcane]

Bertha appears to be tracking south of the NHC forecast points this afternoon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

click Trop Fcst Pts.

[ekal]

Bertha appears to be tracking south of the NHC forecast points this afternoon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

click Trop Fcst Pts.

We will see very soon what the advisory position is, but I think that the storm is right under the forecast track.

[Aric Dunn]

HE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT HAS SHIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHWESTWARD AT DAYS 3-5... IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF.

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

notice that bend to the left at the end....very interesting to say the least.

[Aric Dunn]

latest microwave.. this just goes to show how satellite is missleading .. this image shows that burst of convection is quite a bit on the north side ..

[cheezyWXguy]

latest microwave.. this just goes to show how satellite is missleading .. this image shows that burst of convection is quite a bit on the north side ..

That looks old to me..if you look at satellite imagery now, deep convection has now built down to south of 15N

[wxman57]

Wxman57:

I am curious to know how much longer this cyclone will be over these 25 to 26 degree C waters and once it emerges from these cooler waters if it will be able to survive the dry air that appears on the water vapor images that I am seeing. Thanks in advance for your input.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

On an earlier post, I plotted Bertha's projected track on a map with detailed SSTs. Bertha moves back over 26+C water Sunday night.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/heat.png

[Aric Dunn]

waning convection ... cool water starting to get at it.. lets what happens

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Aric Dunn]

latest microwave ... the looks more like 15.1n but hey oh well... convection either way is still pretty well displaced to the north..

[jaxfladude]

Happy 232nd Birthday USA!

Now back to Bertha watching....

[KWT]

Hmmm shear is still present on this system BUT the fact is its still bursting convection quite often and whilst its not deep I'm impressed its kept it up stil lfor 24hrs under temps that are at best right on the line of marginal, once the shear eases off like it should do and it gets under warm waters I can see a breif shot at hurricane IMO...
Maybe a bit bold sounding but we will see!

[cheezyWXguy]

Hmmm shear is still present on this system BUT the fact is its still bursting convection quite often and whilst its not deep I'm impressed its kept it up stil lfor 24hrs under temps that are at best right on the line of marginal, once the shear eases off like it should do and it gets under warm waters I can see a breif shot at hurricane IMO...
Maybe a bit bold sounding but we will see!

I dont think thats too far from reality, depending on what shear might be like 4-5 days from now. If shear remains under 10kt for the next 5 days as posted earlier (I think by deltadog), then once it moves back over warm water, we could see it ramp up quite a bit

[KWT]

It does need to be watched IMO, of course its all dependant on the shear easing off, though Derek thinks eventually this shear may become more faovrable for the system, we shall see what happens.

I'm still amazed we have a tropical storm near the Cape Verde islands in early JULY

[Weatherfreak000]

Agreed, if Bertha can maintain itself for the next 48 Hours things should get a tad more favorable.


The possibility of it staying weak and drawing closer to the East Coast seems a bit more of a scenario?

[KWT]

Indeed the models are still shifting slightly more to the west now and this does raise the chances of this coming rather close for comfort for the east coast, I sure hope this doesn't become like a previous Bertha...

[wxmann_91]

Wxman57:

I am curious to know how much longer this cyclone will be over these 25 to 26 degree C waters and once it emerges from these cooler waters if it will be able to survive the dry air that appears on the water vapor images that I am seeing. Thanks in advance for your input.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

WV shows upper level dry air... which is not a big detriment to TC's.

Now, as for that mid/low level dry air, that's going to be a big problem. The huge stratocumulus field Bertha is slamming into does not bode well for it.

[CycloneNL]

accuweather says : Bertha maybe monday a hurricane !

[jaxfladude]

I hope that Bertha meets a abrupt end...

[KWT]

Hmmm the tracks are getting a little un-nerving for the east coast. It may be the case though that the models have slightly swang a little too far west, we shall see it does sometimes happen that the models go to extremes.

Personally I think its got about a 24hr window to become a hurricane between say 18z Sunday-18z monday then probably followed by a fast weakening as it gets hammered by the shear. Seems like thats what Accuweather believe, their track is nearly totally inline with the NHC.