Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

[Aric Dunn]

the point is the track wont matter if this degerates into a wave or weakens to a remnant low!

and your faith in the models and their intensity forecast is coming from where?

One could say that this cynicism is putting your support more in favor of the GFDL, which presents the opposing option and is the lone one out. I think it's agreed that the GFDL does not have such a position of power over every single other model.

who me? not at all

[Derek Ortt]

the point is the track wont matter if this degerates into a wave or weakens to a remnant low!

and your faith in the models and their intensity forecast is coming from where?

I'll put my faith in models, which are based upon the LAWS of physics, over something subjective EVERY DAY OF THE WEEK

[vacanechaser]

the point is the track wont matter if this degerates into a wave or weakens to a remnant low!

and your faith in the models and their intensity forecast is coming from where?

I'll put my faith in models, which are based upon the LAWS of physics, over something subjective EVERY DAY OF THE WEEK

live by the models, die by the models...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[deltadog03]

I wonder why the GFS is weakening it that much down the line.....Upper air charts look fairly favorable. Upper shear is 10kt or less for the most part.

['CaneFreak]

I wonder why the GFS is weakening it that much down the line.....Upper air charts look fairly favorable. Upper shear is 10kt or less for the most part.

Stable air and shear

[Aric Dunn]

the point is the track wont matter if this degerates into a wave or weakens to a remnant low!

and your faith in the models and their intensity forecast is coming from where?

I'll put my faith in models, which are based upon the LAWS of physics, over something subjective EVERY DAY OF THE WEEK

oh i see. well you should know better than to think intensity from any model past lets say 24 hours is not very accurate. and hence hoping the model is right does not help at all ..

[Squarethecircle]

and your faith in the models and their intensity forecast is coming from where?

One could say that this cynicism is putting your support more in favor of the GFDL, which presents the opposing option and is the lone one out. I think it's agreed that the GFDL does not have such a position of power over every single other model.

who me? not at all

Sorry if I wasn't clear, I was just saying that if he wasn't putting his faith in the other models, then he would be putting his faith in the GFDL, which seems to have a rather unlikely scenario.

[Aric Dunn]

I wonder why the GFS is weakening it that much down the line.....Upper air charts look fairly favorable. Upper shear is 10kt or less for the most part.

well one would and has asked many times that exact question.. just look at last year the gfs did that with every system good example FELIX

[gatorcane]

looks like NHC has shifted the track left again folks. Check out the advisories thread.

[gatorcane]

edit

[Aric Dunn]

latest euro.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Blown Away]

Does anybody else see a trend developing?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

I wonder why the GFS is weakening it that much down the line.....Upper air charts look fairly favorable. Upper shear is 10kt or less for the most part.

Stable air and shear

Didn't delta dog just say upper shear of 10 knots or less?

[gatorcane]

Does anybody else see a trend developing?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Yes I definitely do. I'm curious as to the sudden apparent NW-WNW turn Mon afternoon though? There was no mention as why they did that. That does keep the cone pointing just north of Florida instead of directly at it. I doubt there could be any politics involved but aiming the cone the way it is may be just a safe bet at the moment.

and as I said....look closely and you can see a very subtle bend left of the dotted line at the end of the forecast period. Is that the ridge off the EC models are jumping on now?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Does anybody else see a trend developing?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Yes, and I am not liking it. This trend may spell bad news down the line for the bahamas, the U.S. east coast, Bermuda and/or the Canadian Maritimes. Lets just hope that the storm stays fairly weak and that any potential landfall is not a destructive one.

[vacanechaser]

latest euro.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

looks like the euro looses it... gonna be interesting.. but the trend continues, westward bond..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Stratosphere747]

Does anybody else see a trend developing?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Yes I definitely do. I'm curious as to the sudden apparent NW-WNW turn Mon afternoon though? There was no mention as why they did that. That does keep the cone pointing just north of Florida instead of directly at it. I doubt there could be any politics involved but aiming the cone the way it is may be just a safe bet at the moment.

*lol* It's a five day forecast.... Nothing at all to do with politics, so you can erase any "doubt."

[gatorcane]

Does anybody else see a trend developing?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Yes I definitely do. I'm curious as to the sudden apparent NW-WNW turn Mon afternoon though? There was no mention as why they did that. That does keep the cone pointing just north of Florida instead of directly at it. I doubt there could be any politics involved but aiming the cone the way it is may be just a safe bet at the moment.

*lol* It's a five day forecast.... Nothing at all to do with politics, so you can erase any "doubt."

Thanks, just thought I'd throw it out there. I would have liked to know why the NW-WNW turn Mon. afternoon in the graphic though.

[Stratosphere747]

It states clearly why in the disco...

THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT HAS SHIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHWESTWARD AT DAYS 3-5... IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF.

[Extremeweatherguy]

gatorcane - I wouldn't worry too much about the center line of the cone right now. The line is sure to change many more times in the days ahead, and beyond 24-48 hours out, it is probably best to just view the cone as a whole instead of focusing on the line.