TC Bertha

[CycloneNL]

Maybe we have tomorrow 94L in the carribean,
And in the W.Pacific 90W.

[brunota2003]

I hope that Bertha meets a abrupt end...

I don't. I hope it chugs all the way across the Atlantic and hits NC as a weak Tropical Storm (i.e. 40 mph).

And before anyone starts blasting me for -removed-, take a look at the rainfall deficits and fires cropping up! (BTW, the Evans Road Fire is still burning and producing smoke!)

[jaxfladude]

I hope that Bertha meets a abrupt end...

I don't. I hope it chugs all the way across the Atlantic and hits NC as a weak Tropical Storm (i.e. 40 mph).

And before anyone starts blasting me for -removed-, take a look at the rainfall deficits and fires cropping up! (BTW, the Evans Road Fire is still burning and producing smoke!)

You are okay in wanting that scenario!

[KWT]

Thats a good point there is a lot of fires in NC, the risk would be huge though if it decided to try to make land, if it survives the trip across the high shear, though I believe if it can stay to the south it should re-enter lower shear by 120hrs again as the region of high shear is fairly narrow at a certain point, though it does expand further north closer to the TUTT.

[CycloneNL]

look off the coast of nicaragua/honduras
maybe invest 94L ?

oh okee sorry i dont know that

[cycloneye]

The Caribbean area is being discussed in this thread at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101671&p=1728360#p1728360

[jhamps10]

look off the coast of nicaragua/honduras
maybe invest 94L ?

oh okee sorry i dont know that

actually wouldn't that be what's left of 93L. anyway discuss that in talkin tropics.

[Thunder44]

look off the coast of nicaragua/honduras
maybe invest 94L ?

oh okee sorry i dont know that

actually wouldn't that be what's left of 93L. anyway discuss that in talkin tropics.

I believe the cloudiness south of Hispanola is what is left of 93L

[alan1961]

Forget Bertha..moving north into cooler water and fizzle time.

[vacanechaser]

Forget Bertha..moving north into cooler water and fizzle time.

no way... willing to bet on it



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Aric Dunn]

Forget Bertha..moving north into cooler water and fizzle time.

hhhmmm.... ........ im just going to bite my tongue..




anyway the center is almost completly exposed.. unless some more convection refires
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

[Category 5]

I hope that Bertha meets a abrupt end...

I don't. I hope it chugs all the way across the Atlantic and hits NC as a weak Tropical Storm (i.e. 40 mph).

And before anyone starts blasting me for -removed-, take a look at the rainfall deficits and fires cropping up! (BTW, the Evans Road Fire is still burning and producing smoke!)

Thats not -removed-. you aren't cheering for a deadly destructive storm. You're looking for drought relief, which a tropical system almost always promises.

[Category 5]

look off the coast of nicaragua/honduras
maybe invest 94L ?

oh okee sorry i dont know that

actually wouldn't that be what's left of 93L. anyway discuss that in talkin tropics.

I believe the cloudiness south of Hispanola is what is left of 93L

I believe you are correct. It's that dead, convectionless mass south of Hispanola.

[Steve]

>>I believe you are correct. It's that dead, convectionless mass south of Hispanola.

lmao.

just the way things look to me in the later afternoon visibles kind of appears like peaking mjo basin conditions - tropical 'roids/juice? Anyway, it's probably a good thing we aren't in early September.

[KWT]

Got to admit Bertha doesn't look all that good right now, LLC still on the SW side of the convection and the system has become messy looking. Little area of deep convection has just gone up nearer the center recently but its not all that large right now.

[Aric Dunn]

Got to admit Bertha doesn't look all that good right now, LLC still on the SW side of the convection and the system has become messy looking. Little area of deep convection has just gone up nearer the center recently but its not all that large right now.

if it were still visible right now.. the center is completly exposed.

[HURAKAN]

I never count any system out until it's really dead. Remember, never say never in the tropics.

[KWT]

Not quite Aric but it is very close to being exposed now, shear should ease off in about 24hrs but I think the combo of shear from the S/SW and the very low SST's right now are helping to weaken this system...

Hurakan, your quite right I won't count on this system staying weak until I see it not responding to lower shear and higher SSt's in about 36hrs time.

[Steve]

>>Got to admit Bertha doesn't look all that good right now, LLC still on the SW side of the convection and the system has become messy looking. Little area of deep convection has just gone up nearer the center recently but its not all that large right now.

Yesterday, ECMWF/NOGAPS/UKMET migrated a weaker and sometimes open (acknowledging resolution) pulse moving along with the southern periphery of high pressure. So I wouldn't think that it would be all that surprising if she stayed weaker in the 5 day+/- period. Obviously that scenario, which the us and canadian models are coming closer to, increases the chance that something could get fairly close to the Bahamas and/or East Coast.

Steve

[Aric Dunn]

Not quite Aric but it is very close to being exposed now, shear should ease off in about 24hrs but I think the combo of shear from the S/SW and the very low SST's right now are helping to weaken this system...

Hurakan, your quite right I won't count on this system staying weak until I see it not responding to lower shear and higher SSt's in about 36hrs time.

no really. just some high sirus clouds.. that little burst of convection is well displaced.. ckeck the position and then match it to the satellite..