Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 52W/53W S OF 20N MOVING W 20 KT.
DESPITE THE HIGH AMPLIFICATION NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA...THERE IS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
SHALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS.

THE LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED NEAR 60W HAS
BEEN DROPPED FROM THE SFC ANALYSIS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND IT
APPEARS THAT MUCH OF ITS MOISTURE/ENERGY HAS BEEN DRAWN INTO THE
ITCZ...DUE TO THE ENHANCED NE FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE LARGE
WAVE TO ITS E.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 040856
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST FRI JUL 4 2008

FOR THIS FOURTH OF JULY EVENING ACTIVITIES...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
SHOULD BE FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...RESULTING ON AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. A WIND SURGE BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL MAKE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY FOR
THOSE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 54W/55W S OF 22N MOVING W 20-25
KT. DESPITE THE HIGH AMPLIFICATION NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS...THERE IS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. SHALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041952
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
352 PM AST FRI JUL 4 2008

LOOKING WELL AHEAD...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL DEVELOPS INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE DEVELOPED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE THEN WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. STAY TUNED.
hey carib islanders keep an eye on this if something happens, in case of as usual....Whereas, hope that nothing will occur in this beginning of summer holiday near ours small and beautiful islands

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/ir4-l.jpg
SAL has diminished but on the extreme east of the sat pic ...In Africa seems that puffy clouds are trying to pop slighlty, i don't know if on of them will developp or might be in relation with the prediction if the GFS ...."LOOKING WELL AHEAD...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL WAVE WILL DEVELOPS INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WINDWARDISLANDS BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE DEVELOPED LOWPRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE THEN WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCALISLANDS. STAY TUNED."

2 or 3 suspects areas not well organized for the moment , but who knows maybe another " seductive invest " in the deeps tropics are cooking for the next couple of days.... , let's see if again we could observe another interresting situation, testifying the stronge beginning of this hurricane season, just wait and see....

[KWT]

That area near Africa is interesting because the GFS has been keen on developing something down there and SST's are nice and warm with pretty much no SAL at all thanks to Bertha.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 042351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.



...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 57W S OF 22N MOVING W 20-25 KT.
DESPITE THE HIGH AMPLIFICATION NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS...THERE IS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
SHALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS.
...ITCZ...
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 13W-17W.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 050619
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 23N
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. THE WAVE SHOWED UP WELL IN THE LOW
CLOUD MOVEMENTS IN THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF
YESTERDAY. THIS WAVE SHOULD BE REALLY CLOSE TO 60W...ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FOR THE 05/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP
ANALYSIS.

[Gustywind]

...THE ITCZ...
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS ALONG THE AFRICA COAST SIX HOURS AGO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ANDPOSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 6W AND 24W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 53W.

[Patrick99]

What just came off seems pretty impressive. Has the Cape Verde season actually gotten off to an early start? It would seem that it has?

[Gustywind]

What just came off seems pretty impressive. Has the Cape Verde season actually gotten off to an early start? It would seem that it has?

Absolutely Partrick 99, you're right all areas are suspicious right now,Cap Verde are especially. We must have to monitor theses ones carefully, maybe we should bann sometimes climato and history, 2008 is for a beginning definitely awesome in terms of he surprises, but hope that this... would the end of all these surprises, whereas we're only in JULY, so doubtful about already the end of the season....

[Ed Mahmoud]

The new GFS has partially, but no completely backed off, the suggestion that the current wave exiting Africa could have development potential, and possibly track further South.

In my humble and unprofessional opinion, (IMHAUP), worth watching in the Lesser Antilles, and I suppose the Eastern Greater Antilles. But not worth worrying about, yet.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 21W S OF 15N MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
S OF 15N IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 12N26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 5N-16N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

[americanrebel]

I think we just might see a record in number of Hurricanes and intensity this year breaking 2005, it is really active already and we haven't even gotten into late August/ early September. IMHO

[Ed Mahmoud]

Wave behind Bertha poofed pretty quickly. Maybe, not to go out on a limb, but maybe we won't see Cristobal this week.

[alan1961]

Any thoughts on the blob below Bertha? just a blow up from ITCZ?

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 061050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W.

THE ITCZ...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE CELL WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 9N14.5W.ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 53W.

[HURAKAN]

That's a strong tropical wave nearing the African coast.

[JonathanBelles]

Bertha's dinky on that image!