On a Caribbean collision course?

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg

Some action in the western and upper central Caribbean might just decide to get together. Is that a possibility in anyone's mind?

[Sanibel]

I see that but it's too close to Central America to say anything right now.

['CaneFreak]

Nope...not a possibility in my mind....30 to 40 knots of shear because King TUTT is in control...the convection you are seeing is due to upper level divergence. There is no low level vorticity with the convection you are seeing.

[dixiebreeze]

But there might be eventually, 'canefreak.

[Dean4Storms]

If it persists for a couple days it would pose a potential.

[KWT]

Hmm on its own I don't think anything will happen but lest us forget we do have what is leftover of previous Invest 93L and there is a pretty sharp wave with it that could help set something off. Not high chances with that one but its still worth watching even if Bertha has the headlines.

[cycloneye]

If convection persists for 24 hours then a more closer look has to occur.

[lrak]

What is that spin fixing to head under those super cells off the coast of Nicaragua...93L or is it futher back? Looks like somethings going to happen, will have to watch it tonight for sure like cycloneye said . The mess off the Nicaraguan coast that is. This little gif below sure is forecasting giant waves off the S.Tx coast at the end of the weekend and I just can't see the blobs under Puerto Rico making it that far that soon, so its got to be these blobs off Nicaragua, eh?

http://www.lajollasurf.org/images/caanim.gif

[LaBreeze]

Looks like the Caribbean is ripe for Cristobal.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

From 8 PM Discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 84W S OF 16N
MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE LIES IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE ON
THE S SIDE OF AN UPPER HIGH. THESE TWO FEATURES TOGETHER ARE
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE
COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 80W-85W.

[KWT]

The wave that had 93L looks terrible but the convection in the western Caribbean is on fire right now, got some deep convection with it hasn't it!

[deltadog03]

There is some very good upper level divergance....In another words an upper level anticyclone above that convection.

[KWT]

Hmmm so in that case IF it can keep convection present then this area may need to be watched over the next few days.

[Weatherfreak000]

Seems like this area is already falling apart...

['CaneFreak]

From 8 PM Discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 84W S OF 16N
MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE LIES IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE ON
THE S SIDE OF AN UPPER HIGH. THESE TWO FEATURES TOGETHER ARE
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE
COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 80W-85W.

HMMMMMMMMMMM.....WHO SAID THAT ALL THIS WAS CAUSED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND THAT DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY NOT OCCUR....hmmmmmm......

['CaneFreak]

There is some very good upper level divergance....In another words an upper level anticyclone above that convection.

Yes, but with no low level center trying to develop upper level divergence is like pissing in the wind....it does nothing...

[cheezyWXguy]

There is some very good upper level divergance....In another words an upper level anticyclone above that convection.

Yes, but with no low level center trying to develop upper level divergence is like pissing in the wind....it does nothing...

Sure it does, it gets you wet

[KWT]

Convection that was present yesterday has totally decayed and gone poof.

[Thunder44]

Convection that was present yesterday has totally decayed and gone poof.

Typical Carribean convection that pulses up for while then diminishes quickly. Probably why it hardly gets mentioned in the TWO.