TC Bertha

CourierPR · #1121 Postby **CourierPR** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 9:57 pm

Patrick99 wrote:They have that being a H by 8PM Tuesday? Man, I just don't agree.

The NHC must see something we do not see.

Aric Dunn · #1122 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 9:59 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

RattleMan · #1123 Postby **RattleMan** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 9:59 pm

Patrick99 wrote:They have that being a H by 8PM Tuesday? Man, I just don't agree.

They do? In the track image posted above, it looks like an H in my browser because it's shrunk down. However, it is an S. There is no forecast of 65kt in the latest disco.

hurricane · #1124 Postby **hurricane** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:01 pm

I think on the next advisory we will see a noticable change in the track to the south. As long as Bertha stays weak and the big high is in place there is no way this storm will turn to the north. I will make sure I am up around 3am to see the new track. 8-)

#1125 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:05 pm

txwatcher91 · #1126 Postby **txwatcher91** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:07 pm

Pretty decent convection considering the dry air and minimal SST.

hurricane · #1127 Postby **hurricane** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:08 pm

Also how far to the west does this storm have to be before the hurricane hunters can fly into it. That will start to tell us alot about where Bertha will be moving once they can start taking air samples of the atmosphere and putting it into the computers that will give us all new information. 8-)

#1128 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:09 pm

55°W.

hurricane · #1129 Postby **hurricane** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:10 pm

And what day is it forecast to be at 55west according to the forecast track.

#1130 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:10 pm

I think I saw a comment from Derek that said,missions can be made from Barbados until 40w.

#1131 Postby **Steve** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:12 pm

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

00zs should be partially out but there was the early cycle guidance

Derek Ortt · #1132 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:18 pm

just remember last year... Karen was reached at ~42W. That's how we know it became a hurricane.

However, I am not sure that Bertha will be flown by NOAA

#1133 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:22 pm

SSTS start to warm over 26c after 40w so it wont be long for Bertha to get to more warmer waters.

jaxfladude · #1134 Postby **jaxfladude** » Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:23 pm

Local TV met just said to watch the progress of Bertha, should still turn to the north but closer to the Islands and the US than thought earlier...

#1135 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Jul 05, 2008 1:06 am

here's a catch 22....Shear is lessening, storm gets stonger, and goes north....
or Shear stays up (which according to this map it isnt)....system stays weak....hits the US/carib.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #1136 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 05, 2008 1:54 am

KWT · #1137 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 05, 2008 3:39 am

For shear this system has to really thread a path through the smallest region of shear. If it can get it just right it may only have 12-18hrs of moderate shear and after that shear doesn't look all that high really and SST's are plenty warm compared to the present anyway. We have reached about the lowest point in terms of SST's and they shoiuld steadily start to rebound.

Anyway track is looking like giving at least a scare to the USA, it may not make landfall but its going to get close enough for recon thats looking likely.

CycloneNL · #1138 Postby **CycloneNL** » Sat Jul 05, 2008 4:07 am

every new track is comes closer to the usa.

Chacor · #1139 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Jul 05, 2008 4:09 am

That's an unofficial slackuweather forecast. They should not be doing seven-day forecasts when even the NHC's three- to five-day forecast has a large cone of uncertainty. They're just going to cause panic. Don't take everything at face value and follow the NHC's guidance, that's the best.

Compare the NHC track:

gotoman38 · #1140 Postby **gotoman38** » Sat Jul 05, 2008 4:12 am

A few interesting items in the 5am discussion -

THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED
PROBABILITY TABLE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INDICATES
ROUGHLY EQUAL CHANCES OF BERTHA BEING A TROPICAL STORM OR A
HURRICANE AT 3 TO 5 DAYS. WHETHER OR NOT BERTHA BECOMES A
HURRICANE WOULD SEEM TO DEPEND ON HOW WELL IT SURVIVES ITS STAY
OVER COOLER WATERS...AND JUST HOW MUCH WIND SHEAR IMPACTS THE
CYCLONE ONCE IT REACHES THE WARMER WATERS...AND BOTH OF THOSE
FACTORS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
HARDLY BUDGED ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE LEFT AT DAYS 3 THROUGH
5. THIS NEW TRACK IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE GFDL...GFS...AND
ECMWF...BUT THE TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AS
REFLECTED BY THE CONTINUING LARGE SPREAD IN THE LONG-RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

Lots of uncertainty now - we should all keep our eyes on this one!

TC Bertha

Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic

Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic

Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic

Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic

Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic

Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic

Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic

Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic

Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic

Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic

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