Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
Aric Dunn wrote:ROCK wrote:not going to get caught up in one model run right now. I personally look to the EURO for track and the GFDL. Still a long way away......
not getting caught up.. the synoptics set up is very important since all the models are still trending west .. im going to watch every model and analyze them all..
its all good Artic

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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:well all day today the gfs has been trending more and more west and the other models seem to be following suit .. so im curious now... the trough is weaker and the ridge is stronger.. interesting..
or maybe B opens up due to SAL and a very stable environment in front of her....reminds of TD10 which turned into TD12 which turned into Katrina.....
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
the 0Z NOGAPS also implies a threat to the far northeast caribbean
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- vacanechaser
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
canefreak and aric are right... right into the carolinas!!! almost 12 years to the day... about 3 days late to 96's version... gonna be very interesting next week...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
It looks like no one is out of the woods from this one. 

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Currently tabulating a table/graph of 06z intensity models. SHIPS calling for hurricane.
Refer to ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/nhc_techlist.dat for model names.
Code: Select all
TAU\MODEL AVNI GFDI GFNI HWFI IVCN LGEM NGPI SHIP
Wind speed in knots
INIT 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
12 44 39 34 45 42 46 40 47
24 43 41 33 46 44 49 40 50
36 44 48 33 48 48 53 39 55
48 45 56 34 48 51 57 42 60
60 49 52 35 51 53 62 44 64
72 49 57 35 55 55 65 45 64
84 48 55 39 59 57 66 50 65
96 46 55 47 57 57 65 51 63
108 45 60 61 58 61 63 50 62
120 42 68 75 59 64 61 52 59

Refer to ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/nhc_techlist.dat for model names.
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GFS looks like a Bertha 1996 re-duex, its quite scary how the 2 systems are starting to looking more and more similar!
The models really do seem to be keen on taking this very close to the USA, indeed the UKMO takes this system right into the Caribbean which is honestly stunning!
I think as long as it survives then we are going to have to keep sucvch a close eye on this system.

The models really do seem to be keen on taking this very close to the USA, indeed the UKMO takes this system right into the Caribbean which is honestly stunning!
I think as long as it survives then we are going to have to keep sucvch a close eye on this system.
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
Latest run of the ECMWF looses the system north of the islands after 120hrs:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
New 6z GFS is further east and weaker with the system. New trough coming off the East coast in 5 to 7 days breaks down the West Atlantic Ridge:
500mb:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
Surface:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
500mb:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
Surface:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
Last edited by Thunder44 on Sat Jul 05, 2008 6:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Gustywind
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
Jam151 wrote:the 0Z NOGAPS also implies a threat to the far northeast caribbean
And the UKMET? And the AMN...near Antigua and Barbuda very close to Guadeloupe too on its north side, and on St Marteen and St Barth really in eek:


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Yep the 06z is more of a threat to Bermuda as it happens.
Still there is clearly some uncertainty about whats going to happen givne the shifts in the models. The GFs has got a habit after 96hrs I note of breaking down ridges too fast and the same may apply to the 06z with the the way it breaks the Bermuda high.
Still there is clearly some uncertainty about whats going to happen givne the shifts in the models. The GFs has got a habit after 96hrs I note of breaking down ridges too fast and the same may apply to the 06z with the the way it breaks the Bermuda high.
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- ftolmsteen
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
I'm assuming that the ukmet model has Bertha opening up to a wave being that far south from the majority of the models?
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
06z GFDL curves more north at 62w.Maybe is seeing a trough at the east coast that may cause the track to go north at that point.
WHXX04 KWBC 051128
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA 02L
INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 5
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 16.0 34.4 285./18.0
6 16.4 36.3 281./18.4
12 16.6 38.1 275./18.0
18 16.7 39.7 274./14.6
24 17.0 41.6 281./19.3
30 17.7 43.6 288./19.6
36 18.2 45.6 285./19.6
42 18.9 47.2 292./17.3
48 19.9 48.8 303./17.3
54 20.3 50.1 288./13.6
60 20.9 51.5 291./13.9
66 21.2 52.8 283./12.2
72 21.8 53.8 299./11.7
78 22.6 54.9 306./12.8
84 23.0 56.3 290./13.1
90 23.7 57.3 302./11.7
96 24.6 58.2 315./12.0
102 25.1 59.3 298./11.4
108 25.7 60.3 299./10.7
114 26.4 61.0 310./ 9.1
120 26.8 61.8 302./ 8.5
126 27.4 62.5 309./ 8.2
WHXX04 KWBC 051128
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA 02L
INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 5
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 16.0 34.4 285./18.0
6 16.4 36.3 281./18.4
12 16.6 38.1 275./18.0
18 16.7 39.7 274./14.6
24 17.0 41.6 281./19.3
30 17.7 43.6 288./19.6
36 18.2 45.6 285./19.6
42 18.9 47.2 292./17.3
48 19.9 48.8 303./17.3
54 20.3 50.1 288./13.6
60 20.9 51.5 291./13.9
66 21.2 52.8 283./12.2
72 21.8 53.8 299./11.7
78 22.6 54.9 306./12.8
84 23.0 56.3 290./13.1
90 23.7 57.3 302./11.7
96 24.6 58.2 315./12.0
102 25.1 59.3 298./11.4
108 25.7 60.3 299./10.7
114 26.4 61.0 310./ 9.1
120 26.8 61.8 302./ 8.5
126 27.4 62.5 309./ 8.2
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Yep I think it probably does the same the GFS, don't the GFDL and the GFS use the same synoptic dats, therefore if one has overdone the trough then its highly highly likely the other has as well?
GFDL should see the system slide to the west of Bermuda but to the east of the USA I'd have thought.
GFDL should see the system slide to the west of Bermuda but to the east of the USA I'd have thought.
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
Well, this mornings model suite hasn't really shed any light on the long term track. Seems the global models are struggling with the upper air pattern next weekend. The GFS, GFDL, CMC, and HWRF want to find a weakness in the ridge and turn Bertha N or NW into the Atlantic. On the other hand, the NOGAPs, UKMET, and Euro somewhat want to keep the storm on a more southerly route. It all boils down to the strength of the trough over the NE US next weekend which we probably won't know for a couple of more days. Here's the most ominous run - the 00Z NOGAPS which shows the ridge holding tough next weekend.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2008070500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2008070500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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- Blown Away
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
ronjon wrote:Well, this mornings model suite hasn't really shed any light on the long term track. Seems the global models are struggling with the upper air pattern next weekend. The GFS, GFDL, CMC, and HWRF want to find a weakness in the ridge and turn Bertha N or NW into the Atlantic. On the other hand, the NOGAPs, UKMET, and Euro somewhat want to keep the storm on a more southerly route. It all boils down to the strength of the trough over the NE US next weekend which we probably won't know for a couple of more days. Here's the most ominous run - the 00Z NOGAPS which shows the ridge holding tough next weekend.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2008070500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
At the end run, is the ridge building back in or weakening?
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The thing that we need to be aware is the GFS and models similar to it were dead keen on recurving the system into the first weakness but it just hasn't happened as they over-estimated the weakness, I think we have got to be aware that the exact same thing could happen with the 06z solution this time round as well.
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