TC Bertha

['CaneFreak]

Well its estimated to be just a tiny bit south of 16.4N and pretty much 36W so yeah your not far wrong, pretty evident that the LLC is tucked in under the convection and the fact its flared up over the LLC rather to the north may be suggesting shear is starting to lessen just as it starts to get closer to the warmer waters.

Shear has not been a problem....its been cold water...why does everyone think this thing has been sheared? Now, there has been some RELATIVE SHEAR due to its fast forward movement but it has been in 5 to 10 knots of shear for days now. If it continues going this fast through the TUTT in a couple of days, it might really get a test of endurance at that time.

[HurricaneRobert]

6z nam

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

A lot of people here want a hurricane in S Fla, so they might get their wish. Of course that track is also central Gulf Coast bound.

[gatorcane]

Good morning all. Several days ago when we first started tracking Bertha I did warn that a FISH storm and recurvature were HIGHLY uncertain with a forecast that called for a general WNW movement over several days and a weaker system than SHIPS predicted.

Here we are with the scenario I envisioned albeit models are diverging significantly now in the 5+ period. I'm going to take a look at the overall synoptic pattern again but I don't see any reason why it won't stay on a WNW course for the next 3-5 days. That weakness indeed is turning out to be too tight for this system to pass through as I originally thought.

But - I will say its getting closer to a threat to the NE Leewards and US than I originally thought. I can't believe that even Florida may need to start watching this closer. Note that if Bertha makes it to the U.S, I don't believe ANY storm in history has done that where Bertha formed (far east and north). So not only will Bertha be one of the farthest east forming systems but it will again defy climatology.

One one word: unbelievable

[cycloneye]

No change.

05/1145 UTC 16.4N 36.2W T3.0/3.0 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[gatorcane]

No change.

05/1145 UTC 16.4N 36.2W T3.0/3.0 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Interesting. Bertha appears to be moving 270 to me in the last couple of hours and rather quickly may I add. Anybody else notice the more West movement? There even seems to be a just south of west movement.

[Janie2006]

Good morning all. Several days ago when we first started tracking Bertha I did warn that a FISH storm and recurvature were HIGHLY uncertain with a forecast that called for a general WNW movement over several days and a weaker system than SHIPS predicted.

Here we are with the scenario I envisioned albeit models are diverging significantly now in the 5+ period. I'm going to take a look at the overall synoptic pattern again but I don't see any reason why it won't stay on a WNW course for the next 3-5 days. That weakness indeed is turning out to be too tight for this system to pass through as I originally thought.

But - I will say its getting closer to a threat to the NE Leewards and US than I originally thought. I can't believe that even Florida may need to start watching this closer. Note that if Bertha makes it to the U.S, I don't believe ANY storm in history has done that where Bertha formed (far east and north). So not only will Bertha be one of the farthest east forming systems but it will again defy climatology.

One one word: unbelievable

Yah, on the one hand climatology is against Bertha making it to the US...so I remain particularly suspicious of this morning's NAM run. On the other hand, just because it's a climatological anomaly does not mean it can't happen. Needless to say, I'm quite interested in this system. Bertha has maintained a more westerly course than I had originally thought.

[HURAKAN]

As we move further into the future, the fish theory becomes less and less likely. I think it's reasonable to indicate that the east coast of the US should keep an eye on the track of the storm.

[gatorcane]

The NAM looks to be bringing Bertha just North of Puerto Rico heading W into the SE Bahamas as minimally a tropical storm. That is quite a shocker. Am I seeing the NAM correctly?

[ronjon]

Threat to the US? Jeff Masters blog from this morning:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[cycloneye]

I would add to what Sandy said,those who live in the Extreme NE Caribbean,Eastern Bahamas and Bermuda should follow the progress of Bertha closely.

[GeneratorPower]

Interesting. Bertha appears to be moving 270 to me in the last couple of hours and rather quickly may I add. Anybody else notice the more West movement? There even seems to be a just south of west movement.

Sometimes it's deceptive because the blob of convection seems to be shifting more to the western side of the center. It's hard to actually track the center and not let the convection trick your eyes. But still, I think the NHC has a good handle on movement. I certainly can't do any better!

[ronjon]

The NAM looks to be bringing Bertha just North of Puerto Rico heading W into the SE Bahamas as minimally a tropical storm. That is quite a shocker. Am I seeing the NAM correctly?

You think NAM is a shocker? NOGAPS just as bad.

[gatorcane]

I would add to what Sandy said,those who live in the Extreme NE Caribbean,Eastern Bahamas and Bermuda should follow the progress of Bertha closely.

Yes I agree, just a slight leftward shift in that cone and these areas are in the cone of uncertainty.

[HURAKAN]

Another concern now is that SHIPS has drastically reduced the shear forecast between days 3 and 5. Yesterday I saw that it was up to 33 knots, and now the highest is 17 knots. This could indicate the possibility of Bertha becoming a hurricane in this time period.

[GeneratorPower]

Yah, on the one hand climatology is against Bertha making it to the US...so I remain particularly suspicious of this morning's NAM run. On the other hand, just because it's a climatological anomaly does not mean it can't happen. Needless to say, I'm quite interested in this system. Bertha has maintained a more westerly course than I had originally thought.

Not exactly. We have no storms on record this early forming where Bertha did. So at least as far as position of genesis is concerned, there is no climatology. However, it is probably time to break out the "storms passing within x nautical miles of Bertha" climatology now that it's moving farther west. We can also look at the general climatology of steering this time of year.

[littlevince]

Shear has not been a problem....its been cold water...why does everyone think this thing has been sheared? Now, there has been some RELATIVE SHEAR due to its fast forward movement but it has been in 5 to 10 knots of shear for days now. If it continues going this fast through the TUTT in a couple of days, it might really get a test of endurance at that time.

She caught 20kt shear yesterday

Yesterday

[deltadog03]

He has a nice post this morning, but respectfully dissagree with the shear problem. If you look at the 200mb charts there is some shear around where bertha will be, BUT 1. its only about 10-15kts and 2. its on the left side of bertha and will only enhance outflow.

[ronjon]

Yah, on the one hand climatology is against Bertha making it to the US...so I remain particularly suspicious of this morning's NAM run. On the other hand, just because it's a climatological anomaly does not mean it can't happen. Needless to say, I'm quite interested in this system. Bertha has maintained a more westerly course than I had originally thought.

Not exactly. We have no storms on record this early forming where Bertha did. So at least as far as position of genesis is concerned, there is no climatology. However, it is probably time to break out the "storms passing within x nautical miles of Bertha" climatology now that it's moving farther west. We can also look at the general climatology of steering this time of year.

True that we have no storms that formed this far east but Janie is quite correct. The CLIPPER plot on the model runs reflects statistically what past storms have done in this location. This line has consistently been farthest to the east with the recurve. It would be quite anomalous for storm that formed this far east and at such a latitude to impact the US or carribean. Most recurve in the Atlantic.

['CaneFreak]

Exactly....good call deltadog....once this thing gets past 65 West, shear becomes less of a problem and I have a feeling this thing is going to go to town....that is if the east coast trough is still negatively tilted and not bringing shear with it...

['CaneFreak]

Yah, on the one hand climatology is against Bertha making it to the US...so I remain particularly suspicious of this morning's NAM run. On the other hand, just because it's a climatological anomaly does not mean it can't happen. Needless to say, I'm quite interested in this system. Bertha has maintained a more westerly course than I had originally thought.

Not exactly. We have no storms on record this early forming where Bertha did. So at least as far as position of genesis is concerned, there is no climatology. However, it is probably time to break out the "storms passing within x nautical miles of Bertha" climatology now that it's moving farther west. We can also look at the general climatology of steering this time of year.

True that we have no storms that formed this far east but Janie is quite correct. The CLIPPER plot on the model runs reflects statistically what past storms have done in this location. This line has consistently been farthest to the east with the recurve. It would be quite anomalous for storm that formed this far east and at such a latitude to impact the US or carribean. Most recurve in the Atlantic.

"It would be quite anomalous for storm that formed this far east and at such a latitude to impact the US or carribean. "

Why would you say that? Bertha of 1996 hit NC as a CAT 2 HURRICANE and it was the furthest east a TC has formed (at that time) and it still hit land. Its ALL ABOUT THE SYNOPTICS!!!! You can talk climatology until you are blue in the face. If there is a ridge in place all the way to Bermuda with no impacts from an east coast trough, this thing WILL HIT LAND (depending on intensity). If the east coast trough weakens the ridge just west of Bermuda, this thing will recurve just west of Bermuda (again, depending on intensity). Its not that hard. Its all in the synoptics.