Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

[lebron23]

When do the 18z get in?

[gatorcane]

NHC now forecasting a hurricane moving WNW towards the CONUS. Still not specifying if CONUS will be impacted.....

wow have things changed. I think Bertha has really shown models just aren't there any predicting these systems yet especially out in the middle of the Atlantic where there are little observations available.

Yep, and Bermuda will REALLY have to watch this one. Although it might just go for the hole in the Gulf Stream between Bermuda and the US East Coast.

I'm more inclined to say anybody from SE Florida up to Maine should watch this. Again where do you see a recurve into Bermuda? I don't (yet)

[hurricanefloyd5]

Recurve, I think everyone from the Bahamas and from SE Florida
to North Carolina will need to watch this closely. The ridge
is likely to be pretty strong, based on the intense
SE flow we will have here across the FL peninsula.

I would think the greater danger if Bertha is sitting at the 120hr position would be from the Carolinas northward to New England.

two things one I wouldn't just the gun too much and 2rd something bothers me about what the NHC is saying on BERTHA. They say if it gets stronger then it could move north but if it stays weak then it would stay on a more westerly track but if you look and see from the 50mph storm to a 70mph storm in the forcast track just in the 20mph diffrents this it still moves on a west to wnw track so am I lead to beleve that it won't move as far north as they say it's going too and just hit the EC????????

[cycloneye]

When do the 18z get in?

The BAMS are around 2:30 PM EDT.

[gatorcane]

Recurve, I think everyone from the Bahamas and from SE Florida
to North Carolina will need to watch this closely. The ridge
is likely to be pretty strong, based on the intense
SE flow we will have here across the FL peninsula.

I would think the greater danger if Bertha is sitting at the 120hr position would be from the Carolinas northward to New England.

two things one I wouldn't just the gun too much and 2rd something bothers me about what the NHC is saying on BERTHA. They say if it gets stronger then it could move north but if it stays weak then it would stay on a more westerly track but if you look and see from the 50mph storm to a 70mph storm in the forcast track just in the 20mph diffrents this it still moves on a west to wnw track so am I lead to beleve that it won't move as far north as they say it's going too and just hit the EC????????

If a ridge can establish itself of the EC (Bermuda High), it doesn't matter how strong it gets. If the mid-level and upper-leve steering is West, it will go west. Plain and simple.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Ok tyvm gator I was abit threw by that but I have to agree on that. It looks from the 5 day track that it could very well strike florida and no I am not saying it will hit or strike florida but it looks like that as of right now!!!!!!!

[Frank2]

I hope no one in the media or oil industry is reading these posts - lots of misquoting, fear and -removed- going on here...

Per this earlier misquote:

"NHC now forecasting a hurricane moving WNW towards the CONUS. Still not specifying if CONUS will be impacted...."

the NHC has not even hinted at anything like that - in fact, the latest TCD mentions that the models have trended northward in the latest run...

Let's all take a minute to think before we post, please...

[Scorpion]

Haha you know those speculators will do anything to raise oil prices..

[jlauderdal]

Haha you know those speculators will do anything to raise oil prices..

yep and if you want to make money on that than go long on the USO ETF, its been working well for weeks now.

[Frank2]

In fact, there is a negatively-tilted and elogated ULL about 10-15 degrees WNW of Bertha that is very formidable in appearance, and, perhaps stronger than the models are indicating, so, Bertha has some unfavorable times ahead...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***NOT OFFICIAL***
Based on the strong ridge and what the promets are saying in the
main bertha thread, I think the Carolinas would be at the highest
risk of a strike, similar to Bertha of 1996. THAT'S IF BERTHA
REACHES THE CONUS.

[gatorcane]

I hope no one in the media or oil industry is reading these posts - lots of misquoting, fear and -removed- going on here...

Per this earlier misquote:

"NHC now forecasting a hurricane moving WNW towards the CONUS. Still not specifying if CONUS will be impacted...."

the NHC has not even hinted at anything like that - in fact, the latest TCD mentions that the models have trended northward in the latest run...

Let's all take a minute to think before we post, please...

Hey Frank if speculators misconstrue that statement I made, they have some serious issues. Note "still not specifying if CONUS will be impacted."

I highly doubt speculators even look at what is on this site anyway.

[vacanechaser]

I hope no one in the media or oil industry is reading these posts - lots of misquoting, fear and -removed- going on here...

Per this earlier misquote:

"NHC now forecasting a hurricane moving WNW towards the CONUS. Still not specifying if CONUS will be impacted...."

the NHC has not even hinted at anything like that - in fact, the latest TCD mentions that the models have trended northward in the latest run...

Let's all take a minute to think before we post, please...

Hey Frank if speculators misconstrue that statement I made, they have some serious issues. Note "still not specifying if CONUS will be impacted."

I highly doubt speculators even look at what is on this site anyway.

yea, and last time i checked, you dont have nhc forecaster attached to your name... we know frank, he just likes to stir you guys up... he is always a nasayer... look, no one wants a bad hurricane to hit anywhere... but some of us need the rain due to fires and the drought... if the media reads this message board and takes what anyone here says as fact, the media is is worse off than i thought they were...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Aric Dunn]

here is a the latest model loops of the trend... so now we have the common model situation!! i like the analogy of a flag in the wind !! meaning the models flip back and forth as if they were being blown around . : )

[Thunder44]

Looks like the 12z GFS is following the eastward shift of the 6z run. It starts turning northward before reach 60W, in the temporary weakeness there, before stalling out. (It's also a little stronger at this time.) Also the trough late next week diggs along the east coast some more.

[Aric Dunn]

latest on the gfs 12z run.. although it makes alittle turn to the wnw just before the islands that trough misses it and then bertha turns back west which is normally a bad thing....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

['CaneFreak]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

Look at that!!! That trough is leaving Bertha behind!!! Here we go!!!!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I've been looking at a lot of the models, especially the GFS, this morning to see not where they want to take Bertha, or the strength predictions, but to see what they say about the strength and location of the Bermuda high over the upcoming week.

(upcoming "Storm Tracking 101" lesson ahead for newbies. )

We all know that storms travel around the periphery of the high pressures, at roughly the pressure level they enter in. i.e. if we see a "1020" line of pressure illustrated on these charts where a storm starts their travel around the high, then they pretty much follow the path of that pressure level along to the general west (clockwise) around the high's periphery. As the high pressure shifts and moves, the storm will react accordingly, maintaining that travel along the pressure level even as the high itself shifts around or "changes shape". Storms do not "punch through" a high pressure. The highs are stronger than they are. However, powerful storms can seem to compress a high a bit, but not too much. Weaker storms are fully at the mercy of the highs and can not veer from the periphery path at all.

Troughs help to "change the shape" of these highs as they react to them, compressing their "lines of pressure" into more drastic directions. (like if your hand (a trough) pushes on a water balloon (a high) making the balloon appear gooshed in where your hand meets it) Storms often find themselves "pulled north" in front of troughs, as they now start following their periphery pathway as it gets directed more drasticly in that direction.

In looking at what the models are showing, they all show a pretty strong high pressure system firmly in place over Bermuda. The high is depicted as being elongated from southwest to northeast in the later time period, being more egg-shaped than circular. Although maitaining its cetralized position, the southwest part of the high undergoes advances and retractions extending its edge over florida, and then retracting the edge off the Florida coastline. In general, all the models show this same shape of the high, but they differ in how much they retract it or maintain it over the eastern half of florida. This is key in where Bertha will go, if she stays alive as a storm by the 6th/7th day out, when her path becomes contingent on where the southwest border of the high lies.

If she is a weaker storm by then, Hurricane 1 or less, then she will not "nudge" the high much at all and just follow the periphery (doing directly as she is told) by the high. If she is stronger than that, she may try to argue a little, encroaching into the high a little, but still generally being directed by it.

Either way, the models seem to predict that she will either approach the southeast coast of Florida and cut up through the east half of the state, then over water a little, then into GA/SC/NC and out to sea.... or threaten the florida coastline (aka Floyd) and head into SC/NC area and then curve out to sea. IF she gets real strong, she may be able to muscle her way into avoiding the East Coast altogether, albeit a very close call, and merely threaten the outerbanks before curving out to sea. I don't think she will get that strong to be able to do that, based on water temps and shear this time of year though.

I think that the strongest likelihood at this point is a weaker system just skirting the Florida south east and east coast and directly affecting the SC/NC border area. It would then cross NC and go out to sea. The most I'm willing to grant her is weak Hurricane 2 at FL, but more likely a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane 1 Bertha impacting land in FL first, then as a Tropical storm into the Carolinas.

I'll be watching how the models start moving that Bermuda High around now, and hoping that they retreat it furhter out to sea when Bertha starts knocking on the US Coast's door. (Hopefully she'll avoid all the islands too, but I suspect at least the Bahamas will be affected, and possibly PR could have some affects too if she stays weaker.)

[Aric Dunn]

that is track it has now is very ominous can anyone guess the name of the hurricane that hit south Florida that did something like that.

it was being sheared the whole time then once it turned back west it was a monster

['CaneFreak]

that is track it has now is very ominous can anyone guess the name of the hurricane that hit south Florida that did something like that.

it was being sheared the whole time then once it turned back west it was a monster

Take that back.....HURRICANE ANDREW OF 1992!!!