TC Bertha

[canegrl04]

Even if Bertha recurves out to sea,shes going to get too close for comfort to the US. An ominous way to start the season

[weatherguru18]

I heard yesterday that some of our sister stations in NC are already doing hourly cut-ins about Bertha!

[CrazyC83]

Cone has been shifted slightly right. West trend of cone has temporarily ended per NHC.

That shifts the ultimate threat to Bermuda and the US East Coast north of Florida.

[HURAKAN]

It's going to be a busy week ahead.

[CrazyC83]

What is the next opportunity for a recurve, around 60W? That's about as late as it can do such without impacting Bermuda.

[gatorcane]

Crazy I would refrain to say anybody from NC north should watch this. If you study historical tracks, many of them bend systems west into areas as south as Florida. Things are way to uncertain to make absolute statements at this time.

[GeneratorPower]

Do you believe fuel costs will limit the total number of missions to Bertha?

Absolutely not.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the visible loops it certainly looks like it has lost a bit of lattitude this morning. It's heading west very fast I might add at 21 mph. Ridging seems similar to Felix and Dean of last year albeit its doubtful that the ridge should move in tandem with Bertha west of 60W. Last year both Felix and Dean were pushed so far west because the ridge built west in tandem with their movements.

Then it all depends on the Bermuda High ridge as to where it goes next.

[wxman57]

Good morning, everyone. I've been on the phone to the office discussing Bertha and a possible threat to our east coast clients. With Bertha so weak, it's likely to miss its opportunity to turn north up the TUTT on Monday. It's possible that the wind shear could kill Bertha, though. I'm not forecasting that, but if I was living in the Carolinas I'd be hoping for such an outcome.

So if Bertha is too weak to be picked up by the TUTT and if it manages to hold together - what's next? There is a cold front/upper trof forecast to reach the East U.S. Coast late next week. Will this trof pick up Bertha and turn it northward before it reaches the coast? Currently, I think there's a better-than-not chance of this happening. But the chances of that aren't too much above 50-50. And if it doesn't get picked up, then what?

Well, with high pressure building to its north and very warm water below it, Bertha could be in a good environment for strengthening and heading right for the Southeast U.S. Coast with an ETA in 8-10 days. That's a long way out, and confidence in the track that far out is low, but if I was living along the East Coast, particularly the Carolinas, I'd start checking my supplies.

[gatorcane]

Good morning, everyone. I've been on the phone to the office discussing Bertha and a possible threat to our east coast clients. With Bertha so weak, it's likely to miss its opportunity to turn north up the TUTT on Monday. It's possible that the wind shear could kill Bertha, though. I'm not forecasting that, but if I was living in the Carolinas I'd be hoping for such an outcome.

So if Bertha is too weak to be picked up by the TUTT and if it manages to hold together - what's next? There is a cold front/upper trof forecast to reach the East U.S. Coast late next week. Will this trof pick up Bertha and turn it northward before it reaches the coast? Currently, I think there's a better-than-not chance of this happening. But the chances of that aren't too much above 50-50. And if it doesn't get picked up, then what?

Well, with high pressure building to its north and very warm water below it, Bertha could be in a good environment for strengthening and heading right for the Southeast U.S. Coast with an ETA in 8-10 days. That's a long way out, and confidence in the track that far out is low, but if I was living along the East Coast, particularly the Carolinas, I'd start checking my supplies.

Wxman that will definitely raise eyebrows. Can you provide an opinion for anybody south of the Carolinas particular Florida? If the ridge builds in, could it not starting bending left into SE or E FL? Thanks

[MiamiensisWx]

Good morning, everyone. I've been on the phone to the office discussing Bertha and a possible threat to our east coast clients. With Bertha so weak, it's likely to miss its opportunity to turn north up the TUTT on Monday. It's possible that the wind shear could kill Bertha, though. I'm not forecasting that, but if I was living in the Carolinas I'd be hoping for such an outcome.

So if Bertha is too weak to be picked up by the TUTT and if it manages to hold together - what's next? There is a cold front/upper trof forecast to reach the East U.S. Coast late next week. Will this trof pick up Bertha and turn it northward before it reaches the coast? Currently, I think there's a better-than-not chance of this happening. But the chances of that aren't too much above 50-50. And if it doesn't get picked up, then what?

Well, with high pressure building to its north and very warm water below it, Bertha could be in a good environment for strengthening and heading right for the Southeast U.S. Coast with an ETA in 8-10 days. That's a long way out, and confidence in the track that far out is low, but if I was living along the East Coast, particularly the Carolinas, I'd start checking my supplies.

I completely agree, and I'm going to attempt to post an analysis to support my views as well. I now believe a threat to the East Coast is becoming more plausible, and if Bertha strikes land, it will likely be the Carolinas (particularly North Carolina).

The synoptic pattern actually appears similar in some respects to the set-up during Bertha 1996.

[Janie2006]

I think ronjon meant that most recurve, but said there are exceptions such as Bertha 1996, and seemed to agree
with jamies statement that this can break climatology.

Climatology is simply past history.

I never stated or implied otherwise. Furthermore, there is quite a bit of evidence which does indeed lead one to the possibility that our methods are flawed in more ways than one. I tend to agree with that position.

[GeneratorPower]

Good morning, everyone. I've been on the phone to the office discussing Bertha and a possible threat to our east coast clients. With Bertha so weak, it's likely to miss its opportunity to turn north up the TUTT on Monday. It's possible that the wind shear could kill Bertha, though. I'm not forecasting that, but if I was living in the Carolinas I'd be hoping for such an outcome.

So if Bertha is too weak to be picked up by the TUTT and if it manages to hold together - what's next? There is a cold front/upper trof forecast to reach the East U.S. Coast late next week. Will this trof pick up Bertha and turn it northward before it reaches the coast? Currently, I think there's a better-than-not chance of this happening. But the chances of that aren't too much above 50-50. And if it doesn't get picked up, then what?

Well, with high pressure building to its north and very warm water below it, Bertha could be in a good environment for strengthening and heading right for the Southeast U.S. Coast with an ETA in 8-10 days. That's a long way out, and confidence in the track that far out is low, but if I was living along the East Coast, particularly the Carolinas, I'd start checking my supplies.

[wxman57]

Wxman that will definitely raise eyebrows. Can you provide an opinion for anybody south of the Carolinas particular Florida? If the ridge builds in, could it not starting bending left into SE or E FL? Thanks

I think that the southern FL peninsula is on the very southern end of possibilities. There would have to be a very strong high north of Bertha to force it west to your area, and I see no sign of that now.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Good morning, everyone. I've been on the phone to the office discussing Bertha and a possible threat to our east coast clients. With Bertha so weak, it's likely to miss its opportunity to turn north up the TUTT on Monday. It's possible that the wind shear could kill Bertha, though. I'm not forecasting that, but if I was living in the Carolinas I'd be hoping for such an outcome.

So if Bertha is too weak to be picked up by the TUTT and if it manages to hold together - what's next? There is a cold front/upper trof forecast to reach the East U.S. Coast late next week. Will this trof pick up Bertha and turn it northward before it reaches the coast? Currently, I think there's a better-than-not chance of this happening. But the chances of that aren't too much above 50-50. And if it doesn't get picked up, then what?

Well, with high pressure building to its north and very warm water below it, Bertha could be in a good environment for strengthening and heading right for the Southeast U.S. Coast with an ETA in 8-10 days. That's a long way out, and confidence in the track that far out is low, but if I was living along the East Coast, particularly the Carolinas, I'd start checking my supplies.

Yikes. Sounds like Carolinas are at the high risk if Bertha were to strike the CONUS.

[HURAKAN]

GO BERTHA, GO!!

[lebron23]

anyone have a radar loop showing the forecast points?

[cheezyWXguy]

radar is unable to show a storm that far out...only satellite can be used

[wxman57]

Yikes. Sounds like Carolinas are at the high risk if Bertha were to strike the CONUS.

Could be. Note that I didn't jump on that bash JB bandwagon earlier, though he does have a strong east coast bias in his forecasts. I was telling our team last week that I remember another storm that all the models forecast to head safely out to sea back in 2003 (Isabel) early on. Yes, that is the most likely scenario with a storm at such a far northern latitude so far to the east, but it's not a guarantee of recurvature east of the U.S. I'm not forecasting a landfall in the Carolinas just yet (as being the most likely to happen). That may come tomorrow or more likely on Monday once we're sure how Bertha interacts with the TUTT.

[brunota2003]

Yikes. Sounds like Carolinas are at the high risk if Bertha were to strike the CONUS.

Could be. Note that I didn't jump on that bash JB bandwagon earlier, though he does have a strong east coast bias in his forecasts. I was telling our team last week that I remember another storm that all the models forecast to head safely out to sea back in 2003 (Isabel) early on. Yes, that is the most likely scenario with a storm at such a far northern latitude so far to the east, but it's not a guarantee of recurvature east of the U.S. I'm not forecasting a landfall in the Carolinas just yet (as being the most likely to happen). That may come tomorrow or more likely on Monday once we're sure how Bertha interacts with the TUTT.

Ha...I used Isabel as my prog for this system on the model pages a few days ago.