Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

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CrazyC83
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#521 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Jul 05, 2008 11:43 am

I can't see it having a huge impact on oil prices as I don't see it entering the Gulf. If any oil is affected, it would be Hibernia.
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Re: Re:

#522 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 05, 2008 11:43 am

'CaneFreak wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:that is track it has now is very ominous can anyone guess the name of the hurricane that hit south Florida that did something like that.

it was being sheared the whole time then once it turned back west it was a monster


Hurricane Jeanne or Frances of 2004


nope .. early 90's
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

#523 Postby ronjon » Sat Jul 05, 2008 11:43 am

Ridge building over NE - due west at 174 hrs toward FL.

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#524 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 05, 2008 11:45 am

anyway.. well it did not stay on that west track to long.. but still a bad sign when troughs start leaving systems behind that close to land..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re: Re:

#525 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Jul 05, 2008 11:46 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:that is track it has now is very ominous can anyone guess the name of the hurricane that hit south Florida that did something like that.

it was being sheared the whole time then once it turned back west it was a monster


Hurricane Jeanne or Frances of 2004


nope .. early 90's


Go back to my original post....edited it... HURRICANE ANDREW OF 1992!!!
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

#526 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Sat Jul 05, 2008 11:46 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

As some of the models build the High back in towards FL later this week, we may see Bertha taking a WSW path for a day or two that will really scare Miami folks. I think that path will amend back to a more NW one before she actually threatens land though. It appears that the high will begin to retreat again right about the time she nears land.
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Re:

#527 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Jul 05, 2008 11:48 am

Aric Dunn wrote:anyway.. well it did not stay on that west track to long.. but still a bad sign when troughs start leaving systems behind that close to land..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


That's because there is another ridge building to it's west, over the Southern US. It doesn't have much room to move except northward.
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Re: Re:

#528 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 05, 2008 11:50 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:that is track it has now is very ominous can anyone guess the name of the hurricane that hit south Florida that did something like that.

it was being sheared the whole time then once it turned back west it was a monster


Hurricane Jeanne or Frances of 2004


nope .. early 90's


Go back to my original post....edited it... HURRICANE ANDREW OF 1992!!![/quote]
right!
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#529 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Jul 05, 2008 11:51 am

I'm not really picking up on the Florida thought. My thinking is out to sea, somewhere between Bermuda and the Carolinas.
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Re: Re:

#530 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 05, 2008 11:54 am

Thunder44 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:anyway.. well it did not stay on that west track to long.. but still a bad sign when troughs start leaving systems behind that close to land..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


That's because there is another ridge building to it's west, over the Southern US. It doesn't have much room to move except northward.


right .. i was just saying ... it all depends on how long such a west motion would occur
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#531 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 05, 2008 11:58 am

although the ECMWF kills bertha.. thats not what is important in this model its the strength of the ridge that the euro has in place.. !
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
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Re:

#532 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 05, 2008 12:02 pm

Frank2 wrote:I hope no one in the media or oil industry is reading these posts - lots of misquoting, fear and -removed- going on here...

Per this earlier misquote:

"NHC now forecasting a hurricane moving WNW towards the CONUS. Still not specifying if CONUS will be impacted...."

the NHC has not even hinted at anything like that - in fact, the latest TCD mentions that the models have trended northward in the latest run...

Let's all take a minute to think before we post, please...


This is getting very annoying...are you going to do this all season? We hear you, but if any statements are not appropriate the mods will take care of it, this is a weather board to discuss possibilities so we will continue to do so..thank you
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

#533 Postby Recurve » Sat Jul 05, 2008 12:03 pm

:uarrow: Yeah, that high's not good for anybody. The dissipation part I like.
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

#534 Postby Weatherboy1 » Sat Jul 05, 2008 12:08 pm

I tend to agree that this will likely end up being a recurve somewhere between the east coast and Bermuda, at least as the current models read. Of course, we're talking a week out so it'll be about 48 more hours until we have a better idea if this is going to be a U.S. threat or not.
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

#535 Postby chadtm80 » Sat Jul 05, 2008 12:17 pm

Image
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

#536 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 05, 2008 12:24 pm

12 z NOGAPS coming in..very close to the Islands..

96 hours
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

#537 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 05, 2008 12:25 pm

Ivanhater wrote:12 z NOGAPS coming in..very close to the Islands..

96 hours
Image


Ivan,image does not work.
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#538 Postby RL3AO » Sat Jul 05, 2008 12:27 pm

I see it fine.
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

#539 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 05, 2008 12:28 pm

Your browser must be blocking it
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Re:

#540 Postby Patrick99 » Sat Jul 05, 2008 12:29 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I'm not really picking up on the Florida thought. My thinking is out to sea, somewhere between Bermuda and the Carolinas.


Yeah, July Cape Verde storms tend to not hit Florida....has that ever happened before? Climatologically, based on my own memory and looking at maps of past tracks, Florida only gets hit in July by "homegrown" systems.
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