Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
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'CaneFreak wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:that is track it has now is very ominous can anyone guess the name of the hurricane that hit south Florida that did something like that.
it was being sheared the whole time then once it turned back west it was a monster
Hurricane Jeanne or Frances of 2004
nope .. early 90's
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
Ridge building over NE - due west at 174 hrs toward FL.


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anyway.. well it did not stay on that west track to long.. but still a bad sign when troughs start leaving systems behind that close to land..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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- 'CaneFreak
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Re: Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:'CaneFreak wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:that is track it has now is very ominous can anyone guess the name of the hurricane that hit south Florida that did something like that.
it was being sheared the whole time then once it turned back west it was a monster
Hurricane Jeanne or Frances of 2004
nope .. early 90's
Go back to my original post....edited it... HURRICANE ANDREW OF 1992!!!
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- TreasureIslandFLGal
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
As some of the models build the High back in towards FL later this week, we may see Bertha taking a WSW path for a day or two that will really scare Miami folks. I think that path will amend back to a more NW one before she actually threatens land though. It appears that the high will begin to retreat again right about the time she nears land.
As some of the models build the High back in towards FL later this week, we may see Bertha taking a WSW path for a day or two that will really scare Miami folks. I think that path will amend back to a more NW one before she actually threatens land though. It appears that the high will begin to retreat again right about the time she nears land.
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:anyway.. well it did not stay on that west track to long.. but still a bad sign when troughs start leaving systems behind that close to land..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
That's because there is another ridge building to it's west, over the Southern US. It doesn't have much room to move except northward.
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Re: Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:'CaneFreak wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:that is track it has now is very ominous can anyone guess the name of the hurricane that hit south Florida that did something like that.
it was being sheared the whole time then once it turned back west it was a monster
Hurricane Jeanne or Frances of 2004
nope .. early 90's
Go back to my original post....edited it... HURRICANE ANDREW OF 1992!!![/quote]
right!
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Thunder44 wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:anyway.. well it did not stay on that west track to long.. but still a bad sign when troughs start leaving systems behind that close to land..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
That's because there is another ridge building to it's west, over the Southern US. It doesn't have much room to move except northward.
right .. i was just saying ... it all depends on how long such a west motion would occur
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although the ECMWF kills bertha.. thats not what is important in this model its the strength of the ridge that the euro has in place.. !
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
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- Ivanhater
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Re:
Frank2 wrote:I hope no one in the media or oil industry is reading these posts - lots of misquoting, fear and -removed- going on here...
Per this earlier misquote:
"NHC now forecasting a hurricane moving WNW towards the CONUS. Still not specifying if CONUS will be impacted...."
the NHC has not even hinted at anything like that - in fact, the latest TCD mentions that the models have trended northward in the latest run...
Let's all take a minute to think before we post, please...
This is getting very annoying...are you going to do this all season? We hear you, but if any statements are not appropriate the mods will take care of it, this is a weather board to discuss possibilities so we will continue to do so..thank you
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

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- Weatherboy1
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
I tend to agree that this will likely end up being a recurve somewhere between the east coast and Bermuda, at least as the current models read. Of course, we're talking a week out so it'll be about 48 more hours until we have a better idea if this is going to be a U.S. threat or not.
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- Ivanhater
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
12 z NOGAPS coming in..very close to the Islands..
96 hours

96 hours

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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
Ivanhater wrote:12 z NOGAPS coming in..very close to the Islands..
96 hours
Ivan,image does not work.
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'm not really picking up on the Florida thought. My thinking is out to sea, somewhere between Bermuda and the Carolinas.
Yeah, July Cape Verde storms tend to not hit Florida....has that ever happened before? Climatologically, based on my own memory and looking at maps of past tracks, Florida only gets hit in July by "homegrown" systems.
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