TC Bertha
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic
Actually the observation from that buoy was taken at 15UTC and at that time was located 104 nm south southwest of the center of Bertha based on the NHC's 15 UTC advisory position. So WNW winds at 9kt isn't that surprising since it is located such a distance from the center in the SW quadrant of a medium strength tropical storm. Most tropical cyclones have tremendous assymetry in the wind fields and are especially limited in the SW quadrants.
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic
ronjon wrote:Things can change a lot since this storm is at least 7 days away from the US. We all know how things can vary with the models in just a few days - remember just 48 hrs ago the model consensus was recurve out to sea. I wouldn't get too excited now - we'll have a better handle on it in a couple of days. But the 8-10 day 500 mb ensemble charts don't look real promising today. Both the GFS and Euro show rising heights in New England and a solid ridge off along the east coast of the US.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
That link showing the lastest 8-10 day 500mb GFS and Euro is a bit concerning for the SE coast in my opinion. If this is the case, I dont know how we could eliminate SFL from the equation just yet, since this thing is so far out. Not saying it will hit there, just saying that it is still a possibility that cant be eliminated yet.
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic
Bertha is forcing me off dissipation because of its resilient circulation. The west track is keeping it in warm enough waters to fight off SAL and shear. We'll see what it looks like at 45W. Curious early July CV anomaly.
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Re: Re:
MiamiensisWx wrote:cycloneye wrote:And also the south side always is more weaker than the north side.
Actually, that's definitely not the case in all situations. Wilma's strongest winds at landfall in SW FL were situated well south of the center.
ok ok .. lets make a general definition here.. the right front quadrant is always or typically the strongest so with wilma when it was heading ene the south side was stronger and the north weaker ( in general) normally due to a couple of things but mainly the subtraction of its forward speed.
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic
Sanibel wrote:Bertha is forcing me off dissipation because of its resilient circulation. The west track is keeping it in warm enough waters to fight off SAL and shear. We'll see what it looks like at 45W. Curious early July CV anomaly.
The last time I heard those two words was in 2005...

Last edited by txwatcher91 on Sat Jul 05, 2008 11:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- 'CaneFreak
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic
Sanibel wrote:Bertha is forcing me off dissipation because of its resilient circulation. The west track is keeping it in warm enough waters to fight off SAL and shear. We'll see what it looks like at 45W. Curious early July CV anomaly.
Ok....here's where you are wrong....warm waters DO NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL FIGHT OFF SAL AND SHEAR....that is an incorrect statement that needs to be corrected..warm water DOES NOT MEAN THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL FIGHT OFF all negative environmental factors that come against it....you of all people should know that Sanibel...in fact...the more organized a system is the more vulnerable it is to dry air intrusion, SAL, and shear.
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- vacanechaser
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Re: Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:MiamiensisWx wrote:cycloneye wrote:And also the south side always is more weaker than the north side.
Actually, that's definitely not the case in all situations. Wilma's strongest winds at landfall in SW FL were situated well south of the center.
ok ok .. lets make a general definition here.. the right front quadrant is always or typically the strongest so with wilma when it was heading ene the south side was stronger and the north weaker ( in general) normally due to a couple of things but mainly the subtraction of its forward speed.
i think a lot of it is due in part to friction and the interaction with land... we saw how the storms rotated around to the western side and southwestern side of charley near landfall... not always the case, but thats my thought
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic
Joe Bastardi still thinks very close to the SE Bahamas, similar to Bertha 96. No clue if that is right or not. But in good news for Louisiana and Texas, no mention of the in close storm that he predicted would fire up from ex-93L he had been talking about until Thursday.
Two days w/o a mention would seem to suggest he doesn't see it anymore.
Two days w/o a mention would seem to suggest he doesn't see it anymore.
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic
'CaneFreak wrote:Sanibel wrote:Bertha is forcing me off dissipation because of its resilient circulation. The west track is keeping it in warm enough waters to fight off SAL and shear. We'll see what it looks like at 45W. Curious early July CV anomaly.
Ok....here's where you are wrong....warm waters DO NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL FIGHT OFF SAL AND SHEAR....that is an incorrect statement that needs to be corrected..warm water DOES NOT MEAN THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL FIGHT OFF all negative environmental factors that come against it....you of all people should know that Sanibel...in fact...the more organized a system is the more vulnerable it is to dry air intrusion, SAL, and shear.
Sorry for the off topic but:
Whoa...you can correct someone without saying things like "you of all people".
Everyone needs to be respectful of others. I have known Sanibel for many years
from previous forums about the tropics, and I don't think talking like that
about him is fair. Sanibel is really knowledgable and has been helpful
in making observations over the last several years I've known him as a poster.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Sat Jul 05, 2008 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- BatzVI
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic
Just to clarify, I did not take Miami's statement as an "all clear"....I grew up in So Fla and have lived here in St. Thomas for 17 years, and will never think it's "all clear" until it is.....
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic
that sheer seems to almost be forming a hole. If Bertha goes through it and comes out somewhat in tact then things might get interesting for a bit.

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Re:
RL3AO wrote:Does the NHC wait for the cone to be touching land, watches/warnings to be issued or is there another criteria to issue intermediate advisories?
Watched and warnings trigger intermediate advisories. They won't be any for probably almost a week on Bertha, if ever.
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- 'CaneFreak
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in East Atlantic
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:'CaneFreak wrote:Sanibel wrote:Bertha is forcing me off dissipation because of its resilient circulation. The west track is keeping it in warm enough waters to fight off SAL and shear. We'll see what it looks like at 45W. Curious early July CV anomaly.
Ok....here's where you are wrong....warm waters DO NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL FIGHT OFF SAL AND SHEAR....that is an incorrect statement that needs to be corrected..warm water DOES NOT MEAN THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL FIGHT OFF all negative environmental factors that come against it....you of all people should know that Sanibel...in fact...the more organized a system is the more vulnerable it is to dry air intrusion, SAL, and shear.
Sorry for the off topic but:
Whoa...you can correct someone without saying things like "you of all people".
Everyone needs to be respectful of others. I have known Sanibel for many years
from previous forums about the tropics, and I don't think talking like that
about him is fair. Sanibel is really knowledgable and has been helpful
in making observations over the last several years I've known him as a poster.
Not really here to make friends but I am sorry if I hurt anyone's feelings. I really don't like it when people misinform others about tropical weather. Helping people learn has been a passion of mine that I have had for many years. When incorrect information is given, I make sure that it is corrected to the best of my ability and back up my reasoning with sound scientific facts NOT just gut feelings.
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Re: Re:
MiamiensisWx wrote:cycloneye wrote:And also the south side always is more weaker than the north side.
Actually, that's definitely not the case in all situations. Wilma's strongest winds at landfall in SW FL were situated well south of the center.
True but didn't Wilma come in on an angle?
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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I hear you BatzVI
Until a system is west of us, we're all on high alert around here (oops, unless it's a Lenny!)
In the meantime, as so often happens, I'm watching this go from a really congenial and informative discussion with good q & a's to a tenseness that none of us need. There is enough of that in the world, and those of us (ALL of us with exposure to being affected by hurricanes - and in many cases, brushings with systems that can wreak havoc and destruction - islands and CONUS) need to be calm, be interested, be prepared, regardless of what we are *sharing* with the forum.
It's early days, boys and girls...let's keep it positive, we have a long way to go, together, before the end of November.

In the meantime, as so often happens, I'm watching this go from a really congenial and informative discussion with good q & a's to a tenseness that none of us need. There is enough of that in the world, and those of us (ALL of us with exposure to being affected by hurricanes - and in many cases, brushings with systems that can wreak havoc and destruction - islands and CONUS) need to be calm, be interested, be prepared, regardless of what we are *sharing* with the forum.
It's early days, boys and girls...let's keep it positive, we have a long way to go, together, before the end of November.
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