Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

[cycloneye]

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Yes that was it.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFDL

12Z GFDL

HOUR: .0 LONG: -36.30 LAT: 16.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.91 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.56
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -38.20 LAT: 16.63 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.74
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -39.90 LAT: 16.72 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.83
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -41.57 LAT: 17.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.84 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.99
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -43.45 LAT: 17.57 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.07 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.12
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -45.14 LAT: 18.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.50 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.45
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -46.80 LAT: 18.91 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.03 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.95
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -48.63 LAT: 19.54 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.34 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.46
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -49.87 LAT: 20.18 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.43 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.03
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -51.12 LAT: 20.78 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.50 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.69
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -52.26 LAT: 20.74 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.36
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -53.22 LAT: 21.21 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.08 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.92
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -54.18 LAT: 21.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.49 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.39
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -55.03 LAT: 22.58 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.78 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.16
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -55.93 LAT: 23.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.80 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.48
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -56.83 LAT: 23.81 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.68 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.47
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -57.64 LAT: 24.64 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.18
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -58.70 LAT: 25.41 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.61
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -59.47 LAT: 25.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.15 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.66
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -60.18 LAT: 26.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.98 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.04
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -60.74 LAT: 27.13 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.19 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.40
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -61.22 LAT: 27.72 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.60 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.60

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hope no one in the media or oil industry is reading these posts - lots of misquoting, fear and -removed- going on here...

Per this earlier misquote:

"NHC now forecasting a hurricane moving WNW towards the CONUS. Still not specifying if CONUS will be impacted...."

the NHC has not even hinted at anything like that - in fact, the latest TCD mentions that the models have trended northward in the latest run...

Let's all take a minute to think before we post, please...

This is getting very annoying...are you going to do this all season? We hear you, but if any statements are not appropriate the mods will take care of it, this is a weather board to discuss possibilities so we will continue to do so..thank you

While I think Mr. Frank is a tad over suspicious of oil industry people, being one myself, I don't think a word of caution is a bad thing. I will say, I don't think S2K is a primary source of weather info for people making million dollar plus decisions in the offshore oil and gas business.

[Aric Dunn]

check out the Ukmet..

[Ivanhater]

Yes Aric..UKMET (WHITE LINE in this pic) takes it to the southern Bahamas...GFDL AND GFS have not updated but will shortly...

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the 12z UKMET.Bahamas and South Florida on this models track.

Sat Jul 5 13:34:13 EDT 2008



928

WTNT80 EGRR 051731



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.07.2008



TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 36.3W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.07.2008 17.1N 36.3W MODERATE

00UTC 06.07.2008 17.0N 40.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.07.2008 17.4N 44.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.07.2008 18.1N 47.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.07.2008 18.5N 51.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.07.2008 18.3N 55.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.07.2008 18.9N 58.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.07.2008 19.2N 62.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.07.2008 19.6N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.07.2008 20.5N 68.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.07.2008 21.9N 72.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.07.2008 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[Aric Dunn]

big enough text

[ROCK]

check out the Ukmet..

Definitely the western outlier of all the models. NHC just split the difference. My guess is the UK keeps her so weak that she tracks with the low level flow before stengthening.

I always find this map good to look at MPHI based on sst's.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Steve]

>>although the ECMWF kills bertha.. thats not what is important in this model its the strength of the ridge that the euro has in place.. !

Which was the whole reason that everyone who jumped on early recurvature on Wed and early Thursday should have known better. Despite a slight weakness going by to the north in that High, what the Canadian, GFS, GFDL, HRWF and MM5public were doing was simply impossible. Those models all showed significant high pressure dominating the Atlantic Ocean yet forced Bertha right into the heart of it from the south for an early recurvature. As noted then, it was not possible given the setup even with the slightly more depicted weakness at 500mb. Those models can't have it both ways. Strong high pressure across the entirety of the Atlantic should not mean recurvature at 40, 50 or probably even 60. We know that Joe B is on record having it cross 25 west of 70. I'm not sure (nobody is) how strong the western periphery of the high will be, but there appears to be a trough coming down with a high behind it settling above/north of Bertha in the +/- week period. There is either a brief alley out or a chance to stall it, push it south then west. To me, and I won't ever make a non-obvious call this far out - this looks like some kind of a compromise between a brush with the islands and a shortcut/w-wnw movement at landfall somewhere in the SE US. That's a week out, but I would be more surprised at an earlier (3-5 days) recurvature scenario at this point. I also think a weaker storm over the short-term is more likely.

Steve

[ROCK]

Hey Cycloneye....that bit of info backs up my statement...it does keep her weak. Thanks....

[fci]

Looks like UKMET subscribes to the weaker system will not get picked up. Living in SE Fla; a system in the Southern Bahamas "below tropical storm strength" is not very a huge worry.

I still think that, based on history; Bertha will make the big turn prior to the Bahamas and northeast of the NE Carib.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No idea if UK Met is right, but a depression or wave headed right at Miami!! Rain and 30 mph winds. Oh, the humanity!!


OK, two exclamation points.


Actually, I do have an idea if the UK Met is correct. A suspicion, anyway. The NHC intensity forecast sounds reasonable to me, a non-professional and unofficial observer, so this will feel deeper steering more, and probably be further North, and never threaten South Florida. Not even with weather conditions produced by a typical afternoon thunderstorm.


In my humble and unprofessional opinion.

[Steve]

>>Definitely the western outlier of all the models. NHC just split the difference. My guess is the UK keeps her so weak that she tracks with the low level flow before stengthening.

I'm waiting to see what the 12z NOGAPS and 12Z ECMWF do in comparison. Btw, what up Rock?

Steve

[Aric Dunn]

although the ukmet is weaker.. there is one thing its doing that is the is the underlying important thing to remember at it has since bertha formed really. and that is... it has and keeps the ridge stronger and farther west than all the other models! which is the important thing to look at the intesity is not that important most of the other models also only keep bertha at a minimal storm beside the the hurricane models. the the global models are good for synoptics not strength.. so pay very little attention too the strength from the global models..

[Aric Dunn]

12z cmc
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
interesting.. turns it north.. but trough looks like its starts to leave it behind.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z cmc
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
interesting.. turns it north.. but trough looks like its starts to leave it behind.

the cmc looks fishy to me (no pun intended). I dont think it would turn north so quickly. For most of the run its moving due west, then it turns straight north and slows down...maybe if there was a more broad curve, I would buy into it

[Aric Dunn]

although the ukmet is weaker.. there is one thing its doing that is the is the underlying important thing to remember at it has since bertha formed really. and that is... it has and keeps the ridge stronger and farther west than all the other models! which is the important thing to look at the intesity is not that important most of the other models also only keep bertha at a minimal storm beside the the hurricane models. the the global models are good for synoptics not strength.. so pay very little attention too the strength from the global models..

see check out the ridge it keeps in place. thats the important thing..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[GeneratorPower]

although the ukmet is weaker.. there is one thing its doing that is the is the underlying important thing to remember at it has since bertha formed really. and that is... it has and keeps the ridge stronger and farther west than all the other models! which is the important thing to look at the intesity is not that important most of the other models also only keep bertha at a minimal storm beside the the hurricane models. the the global models are good for synoptics not strength.. so pay very little attention too the strength from the global models..

Ok, good post. But none of the models have very good input via observations of the air that far out. I don't think we can know much more than we already do.

[Steve]

>>the cmc looks fishy to me (no pun intended). I dont think it would turn north so quickly. For most of the run its moving due west, then it turns straight north and slows down...maybe if there was a more broad curve, I would buy into it

It has lower heights on the western side of the ridge than most of the other models. As you can see though, it, as are several other models, is bringing a front down with a high (future blocking??????) behind it off the mid-Atlantic. Until it becomes clear what's happening in eastern North America (Wed timeframe), almost any scenario is plausible with some more likely than others. JMO but still...

Steve

[Ivanhater]

12 z nogaps turns Bertha out to sea..most models have been shifting north throughout the day...next model run will be interesting to see if they continue to show Bertha being picked up by the 2nd trough...