TC Bertha

[MiamiensisWx]

off topic caribepr, but have you noticed that little blob just to the east of the islands around 57W?....hopefully that's just some rain headed our way.....

There is thread going right next to this one on Bertha on tropical waves that you should check out, also you can get the report out of San Juan on weatherunderground for a pretty good *local* forecast (you can get it lots of places, including here - go to the home page here and there is a LOT of stuff to find! - but that is a fast way, just type in STT). We have one wave passing us now and one coming around in a few days. I don't think there's much to it but maybe rain that we need so much (you guys get it and it usually goes right around us).

...and carib, if you want information on Bertha's possible impact to the NE Caribbean islands, feel free to browse my analysis here.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1728870#p1728870

['CaneFreak]

But looking at the water vapor loop... if the TUTT doesn't pull north, she is going to get sheared. Maybe that is what the UKMET is seeing.

And, there's a stationary ULL at approimately 25N 55W (that seems to be developing within the TUTT) - stand by for Bertha to get a new 'do (perhaps)...

Almost appears the TUTT is beginning to lift out.

Believe it or not, I have a thread dedicated to that topic in Talkin' Tropics if you would like to chime in....

[robbielyn]

If the cone does touch the SE Bahamas. We are going to see the SE Fl Media go on hourly updates on Bertha.

If they start hourly updates when Bertha is >2400 miles away, they should be taken off the air. It wouldn't totally surprise me if the start hourly updates now.

Actually I'm alittle surprised the general media like Fox news Channel and CNN haven't started going bonkers yet over Bertha but I inagine by Monday they'll have a reporter doing live updates somewhere in S. Florida

I've gotta say a few days ago when bertha had just come off the coast of africa and was only a td, baynews9 broke in at the top of the hour with "breaking news" telling us about it. Now I may be wrong, but I really don't ever remember that happening before with a td just off the coast of africa. It definately is an early start to the cape verde season. But this truly has been a history making year with tornadoes, flooding and wildfires so who can rule out hurricanes as being nothing but history making? Wouldn't be surprised to see bermuda in the line of fire. Or maybe just miss the outer banks of nc. Don't think it will hit the US. Just my 5 cents, hey you know inflation lol .

[Eyewall]

Why are we talking about South Florida? Climatologically that result would be one of the rarest storm landfalls in a while and nothing supports landfall there anyway.

Give that a 2% at best.

Because everyone in south florida is -removed- a hit. same thing happens when theres a blob of convection in the GOM. everyone that lives in texas gets their feathers ruffled on this forum. I notice that most realistic posts come from those who dont live in hurricane prone areas.

[vacanechaser]

The NHC discussion indicates:

THE NHC FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES THAT BERTHA WILL REMAIN
DEEP ENOUGH TO DECELERATE DUE TO THE WEAKER RIDGE

That's interesting because moving W at 21 mph means she can't deepen all that quickly. The TUTT should also help shear Bertha in the long-run also keeping her from deepening.

The cone was no surprise BTW, shift left in the short-term slightly to reflect the W movement and nudge slightly right in the long-term in response to some of the models.

there was no nudge slightly right in the long term.. days 4 and 5... the day 5 forecast point at the 11am is the exact same as it is in the 5pm... no change what so ever...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Decomdoug]

I'm not going to start worring about Bertha until I see Jim Cantore standing on Jupiter Beach.

[MiamiensisWx]

You can see the movement (just N of due west) very clearly on the long visible loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

...and I'm not -removed- for or against a strike. My analyses are objective.

Secondly, does anyone concur that it seems unrealistic for the TC to attain hurricane status by 2 p.m. on Tuesday?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al02/loop_5W.shtml

[jlauderdal]

Why are we talking about South Florida? Climatologically that result would be one of the rarest storm landfalls in a while and nothing supports landfall there anyway.

Give that a 2% at best.

Because everyone in south florida is -removed- a hit. same thing happens when theres a blob of convection in the GOM. everyone that lives in texas gets their feathers ruffled on this forum. I notice that most realistic posts come from those who dont live in hurricane prone areas.

yep. everyone in south florida is -removed- a hit and everyone in texas when there is a blob in the gulf. people in hurricane prone prone areas are unrealistic about storms. thank you for being the voice of reason and clearing things up.

[robbielyn]

You can see the movement (just N of due west) very clearly on the long visible loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

...and I'm not -removed- for or against a strike. My analyses are objective.

Secondly, does anyone concur that it seems unrealistic for the TC to attain hurricane status by 2 p.m. on Tuesday?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al02/loop_5W.shtml

this whole weather year has been unreal. Nothing surprises me anymore. Climatology may well go out the window this year

[jinftl]

at least the 'season cancel' brigade has taken a back seat to us people I disagree with....i would take animated discussion on active storms anyday to that!

what area would climatology support for a july cape verde storm?

Why are we talking about South Florida? Climatologically that result would be one of the rarest storm landfalls in a while and nothing supports landfall there anyway.

Give that a 2% at best.

Because everyone in south florida is -removed- a hit. same thing happens when theres a blob of convection in the GOM. everyone that lives in texas gets their feathers ruffled on this forum. I notice that most realistic posts come from those who dont live in hurricane prone areas.

yep. everyone in south florida is -removed- a hit and everyone in texas when there is a blob in the gulf. people in hurricane prone prone areas are unrealistic about storms. thank you for being the voice of reason and clearing things up.

[ericinmia]

Why are we talking about South Florida? Climatologically that result would be one of the rarest storm landfalls in a while and nothing supports landfall there anyway.

Give that a 2% at best.

Because everyone in south florida is -removed- a hit. same thing happens when theres a blob of convection in the GOM. everyone that lives in texas gets their feathers ruffled on this forum. I notice that most realistic posts come from those who dont live in hurricane prone areas.

yep. everyone in south florida is -removed- a hit and everyone in texas when there is a blob in the gulf. people in hurricane prone prone areas are unrealistic about storms. thank you for being the voice of reason and clearing things up.

Hey Jim, technically your from south florida too... so we can't trust your judgement about his generalizations. Long time no see, glad to see your still around. Happy belated 4th
-Eric

[SouthFloridawx]

Well looking at the upper level wind forecast through 96 hours from the GFS 12Z... She just may be getting a new hair cut , ha ha pun intended. Or as Frank put it, a new 'do.

I would agree that she probably won't be making it to hurricane strength. But lets remember, shear isn't always necessarily a bad thing. Sometimes if positioned correctly it can serve to ventilate the system, but I'm not sure in this case.

You can see the movement (just N of due west) very clearly on the long visible loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

...and I'm not -removed- for or against a strike. My analyses are objective.

Secondly, does anyone concur that it seems unrealistic for the TC to attain hurricane status by 2 p.m. on Tuesday?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al02/loop_5W.shtml

[Eyewall]

yep. everyone in south florida is -removed- a hit and everyone in texas when there is a blob in the gulf. people in hurricane prone prone areas are unrealistic about storms. thank you for being the voice of reason and clearing things up.

No prob. south east florida should not be poping up in as many posts as it is. there is close to no chance of bertha hitting there. but theres a large population of people that live in south fl posting here hence all the talk.

[robbielyn]

yep. everyone in south florida is -removed- a hit and everyone in texas when there is a blob in the gulf. people in hurricane prone prone areas are unrealistic about storms. thank you for being the voice of reason and clearing things up.

No prob. south east florida should not be poping up in as many posts as it is. there is close to no chance of bertha hitting there. but theres a large popualtion of people that live in south fl hence all the talk.

And on the TWC last night on hurricane minute spot it said the south fl is the number one spot to get hit so they will pay attention to any storm that even closely threatens the US especially after the sneak attack from andrew.

[jinftl]

exactly...if alot of us are from south florida...and we participate on the board...and we live in one of the most active storm regions in the u.s....it's not -removed-...it's discussion...and yes, there is a bias to talk about things that make effect your own weather...that said, i am going to only wishcast to savannah north for the rest of the day

yep. everyone in south florida is -removed- a hit and everyone in texas when there is a blob in the gulf. people in hurricane prone prone areas are unrealistic about storms. thank you for being the voice of reason and clearing things up.

No prob. south east florida should not be poping up in as many posts as it is. there is close to no chance of bertha hitting there. but theres a large popualtion of people that live in south fl hence all the talk.

[Eyewall]

yep. everyone in south florida is -removed- a hit and everyone in texas when there is a blob in the gulf. people in hurricane prone prone areas are unrealistic about storms. thank you for being the voice of reason and clearing things up.

No prob. south east florida should not be poping up in as many posts as it is. there is close to no chance of bertha hitting there. but theres a large popualtion of people that live in south fl hence all the talk.

And on the TWC last night on hurricane minute spot it said the south fl is the number one spot to get hit so they will pay attention to any storm that even closely threatens the US especially after the sneak attack from andrew.

not with this storm. and andrew was not a sneak attack... for days the forcast path had a SE fl landfall. I lived in kendall back in 92, i would know.

[Weatherfreak000]

In my opinion it's only logical to discuss the storm hitting ANY area if it's actually legitimately possible to do so and with zero model support, no Climatology, and a little common sense... that doesn't seem to be a viable scenario.


Anyway that's my two cents...back to Bertha.

[robbielyn]

ok sneak attack as far as intensity was concerned. It went from something s floridians could handle to something no one was prepared for. S florida residents don't want any surprises and will watch with intense interest until the they are completely out of the woods as well as we all should.

[Rainband]

yep. everyone in south florida is -removed- a hit and everyone in texas when there is a blob in the gulf. people in hurricane prone prone areas are unrealistic about storms. thank you for being the voice of reason and clearing things up.

No prob. south east florida should not be poping up in as many posts as it is. there is close to no chance of bertha hitting there. but theres a large population of people that live in south fl posting here hence all the talk.

This board is about discussion and while I agree the chances of Florida or the Conus for that matter being impacted are low, people have the right to their opinions. So chill on the criticism ok.

[jinftl]

From what we saw yesterday with the big model shift to trend west and with talk of the ridge possibly strengthening and/or trough not picking bertha up...it is not so crazy either for anyone along the southeast coast...and yes, south florida included to perceive some level of threat...if you continue the current track for a few more days and at least conceive that a ridge could turn the storm more west...guess where that would...in this scenario...shove the towards storm....may not be forecast, but it is conceivable and fair game for this board to discuss