TC Bertha

[robbielyn]

From what we saw yesterday with the big model shift to trend west and with talk of the ridge possibly strengthening and/or trough not picking bertha up...it is not so crazy either for anyone along the southeast coast...and yes, south florida included to perceive some level of threat...if you continue the current track for a few more days and at least conceive that a ridge could turn the storm more west...guess where that would...in this scenario...shove the towards storm....may not be forecast, but it is conceivable and fair game for this board to discuss

Absolutely and anything is possible with this storm as it has already proven being the first formed ts that far east this early in the season. So it is anything goes for now only time will tell and prudency requires keeping an eye on this storm until s fl is out of the picture and no one can say 100% that this is the case just yet.

[Eyewall]

From what we saw yesterday with the big model shift to trend west and with talk of the ridge possibly strengthening and/or trough not picking bertha up...it is not so crazy either for anyone along the southeast coast...and yes, south florida included to perceive some level of threat...if you continue the current track for a few more days and at least conceive that a ridge could turn the storm more west...guess where that would...in this scenario...shove the towards storm....may not be forecast, but it is conceivable and fair game for this board to discuss

sure, fair game it is. but i think its funny that one of the most unlikely outcomes is one of the most discussed. and im not criticizing anyone.... all i said is the floridians like to talk about their own area regardless of the situation. we should be talking about bermuda and the carolinas

[robbielyn]

From what we saw yesterday with the big model shift to trend west and with talk of the ridge possibly strengthening and/or trough not picking bertha up...it is not so crazy either for anyone along the southeast coast...and yes, south florida included to perceive some level of threat...if you continue the current track for a few more days and at least conceive that a ridge could turn the storm more west...guess where that would...in this scenario...shove the towards storm....may not be forecast, but it is conceivable and fair game for this board to discuss

sure, fair game it is. but i think its funny that one of the most unlikely outcomes is one of the most discussed. and im not criticizing anyone.... all i said is the floridians like to talk about their own area regardless of the situation. we should be talking about bermuda and the carolinas

That may be what climatologically makes sense and the models may be hinting on that probably based on climatology. But I have witnessed more than one storm defy climatology and do it's own thing to the surprise of everyone so everyone needs to keep watch and consider all of the possibilities not just the ones that seem probable.

[jinftl]

i doubt south floridians are unique in being most interested in weather at home....i have tried, but i just can't get as excited about discussing weather in west virginia from here in fort lauderdale...

From what we saw yesterday with the big model shift to trend west and with talk of the ridge possibly strengthening and/or trough not picking bertha up...it is not so crazy either for anyone along the southeast coast...and yes, south florida included to perceive some level of threat...if you continue the current track for a few more days and at least conceive that a ridge could turn the storm more west...guess where that would...in this scenario...shove the towards storm....may not be forecast, but it is conceivable and fair game for this board to discuss

sure, fair game it is. but i think its funny that one of the most unlikely outcomes is one of the most discussed. and im not criticizing anyone.... all i said is the floridians like to talk about their own area regardless of the situation. we should be talking about bermuda and the carolinas

[Extremeweatherguy]

At this point, the chances of the storm hitting Miami are probably just about as great as it hitting Cape Hattaras. We just do not know what will happen. In fact, this storm could very well turn out to sea and miss all of us. That scenario is probably just as possible, if not more likely, than a U.S. Strike.

Also - Forget climatology. Climatology has not been our friend in recent years, and basing everything on that is probably not the best idea. We do not even have enough July cape verde storms on record to make a good climatological assesment anyway, IMO, and according to climatology Bertha should not have even formed in the first place.

[cycloneye]

You can see where the low center is in this composite:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[southerngale]

Why are we talking about South Florida? Climatologically that result would be one of the rarest storm landfalls in a while and nothing supports landfall there anyway.

Give that a 2% at best.

Because everyone in south florida is -removed- a hit. same thing happens when theres a blob of convection in the GOM. everyone that lives in texas gets their feathers ruffled on this forum. I notice that most realistic posts come from those who dont live in hurricane prone areas.

Your comments are both wrong and out of line. Plenty of people from both states HAVE been hit by a devastating hurricane (myself included) and don't want another one.

Let's stay on topic and keep the insults out of this thread.

[Rainband]

Why are we talking about South Florida? Climatologically that result would be one of the rarest storm landfalls in a while and nothing supports landfall there anyway.

Give that a 2% at best.

Because everyone in south florida is -removed- a hit. same thing happens when theres a blob of convection in the GOM. everyone that lives in texas gets their feathers ruffled on this forum. I notice that most realistic posts come from those who dont live in hurricane prone areas.

I beg to differ, anyone on the GOM or SE coast is in a hurricane prone area and you are criticizing with your comments. Some people aren't -removed-, they are concerned and curious and trying to maybe.. uh .learn. I stand by my previous comment "chill out"

[Eyewall]

Well arguing about this is pointless. One thing i would like to note.
I think that climo is as good as garbage when it comes to forcasting storm paths. the only thing that should be considered is the current conditions. Climo is all about the past and the past has nothing to do with whats going on now.

[jinftl]

with the margin of error in forecasts for 5+ days out, i am not sure there is anyway to assess which areas are most or least likely scenarios as far as potential impact...and i haven't seen any discussions that rule out any location.

bottom line, when you got a storm moving west and it is south and east of your coordinates....it ain't over!


i would take this dialogue any day over post after post of 'season cancel' when june is a slow month....lol

sure, fair game it is. but i think its funny that one of the most unlikely outcomes is one of the most discussed. and im not criticizing anyone.... all i said is the floridians like to talk about their own area regardless of the situation. we should be talking about bermuda and the carolinas

[robbielyn]

this is truly coincidence but I don't get too nervous when tv mets say a fl landfall three or more days out(not that anyone has this one anyways) because so many times and yes it only takes one, but they say fl bullseye and then last minute a turn takes place like floyd for instance. It's when fl is not in the cone that I start to get nervous unless its obvious fl is not even a possibility. At this stage of the game no one is out of the question along the east coast.

[Rainband]

Well arguing about this is pointless. One thing i would like to note.
I think that climo is as good as garbage when it comes to forcasting storm paths. the only thing that should be considered is the current conditions. Climo is all about the past and the past has nothing to do with whats going on now.

Kelly and I aren't arguing with you. We are giving you a "Friendly" reminder of the Rules.

[Eyewall]

Well arguing about this is pointless. One thing i would like to note.
I think that climo is as good as garbage when it comes to forcasting storm paths. the only thing that should be considered is the current conditions. Climo is all about the past and the past has nothing to do with whats going on now.

Kelly and I aren't arguing with you. We are giving you a "Friendly" reminder of the Rules.

no criticism = poor discussion

[txwatcher91]

At this point, the chances of the storm hitting Miami are probably just about as great as it hitting Cape Hattaras. We just do not know what will happen. In fact, this storm could very well turn out to sea and miss all of us. That scenario is probably just as possible, if not more likely, than a U.S. Strike.

Also - Forget climatology. Climatology has not been our friend in recent years, and basing everything on that is probably not the best idea. We do not even have enough July cape verde storms on record to make a good climatological assesment anyway, IMO, and according to climatology Bertha should not have even formed in the first place.

Not trying to argue here, but I have to disagree about that. IF this system were to be sheared heavily I would say Florida to NC would be a good possibility, but it appears the TUTT may be lifting out and weakening which means Bertha will have the opportunity to become stronger and be pulled more northward towards NC or out to sea. Beyond this is the question on whether the high builds back in and pushes it towards the Mid-Atlantic region or it goes out to sea. Florida is a possibility, but is very unlikely compared to a recurve or NC brush. Not -removed- here just stating the facts from the models. In summary, anyone on the EC needs to be on the lookout, but particularly the Carolinas, Bermuda, and northward have the most to worry about currently.

[hial2]

with the margin of error in forecasts for 5+ days out, i am not sure there is anyway to assess which areas are most or least likely scenarios as far as potential impact...and i haven't seen any discussions that rule out any location.

bottom line, when you got a storm moving west and it is south and east of your coordinates....it ain't over!

sure, fair game it is. but i think its funny that one of the most unlikely outcomes is one of the most discussed. and im not criticizing anyone.... all i said is the floridians like to talk about their own area regardless of the situation. we should be talking about bermuda and the carolinas

All this might be for naught...Bertha is not looking too healthy right not..

[robbielyn]

At this point, the chances of the storm hitting Miami are probably just about as great as it hitting Cape Hattaras. We just do not know what will happen. In fact, this storm could very well turn out to sea and miss all of us. That scenario is probably just as possible, if not more likely, than a U.S. Strike.

Also - Forget climatology. Climatology has not been our friend in recent years, and basing everything on that is probably not the best idea. We do not even have enough July cape verde storms on record to make a good climatological assesment anyway, IMO, and according to climatology Bertha should not have even formed in the first place.

Not trying to argue here, but I have to disagree about that. IF this system were to be sheared heavily I would say Florida to NC would be a good possibility, but it appears the TUTT may be lifting out and weakening which means Bertha will have the opportunity to become stronger and be pulled more northward towards NC or out to sea. Beyond this is the question on whether the high builds back in and pushes it towards the Mid-Atlantic region or it goes out to sea. Florida is a possibility, but is very unlikely compared to a recurve or NC brush. Not -removed- here just stating the facts from the models. In summary, anyone on the EC needs to be on the lookout, but particularly the Carolinas, Bermuda, and northward have the most to worry about currently.

And no one is disagreeing with that. Most of us feel this is the likely scenario. But it isn't written in stone and that is the point. The last word of your post says it all. Currently this seems the likely scenario but we are far from a final forecast as to where this thing is going and alot can happen between now and then.

[JonathanBelles]

Just a little map I (poorly) drew. I think im being a tad bit conservative with these since the NHC already gives the northeastern Caribbean islands a 10% chance of TS force winds.

[txwatcher91]

At this point, the chances of the storm hitting Miami are probably just about as great as it hitting Cape Hattaras. We just do not know what will happen. In fact, this storm could very well turn out to sea and miss all of us. That scenario is probably just as possible, if not more likely, than a U.S. Strike.

Also - Forget climatology. Climatology has not been our friend in recent years, and basing everything on that is probably not the best idea. We do not even have enough July cape verde storms on record to make a good climatological assesment anyway, IMO, and according to climatology Bertha should not have even formed in the first place.

Not trying to argue here, but I have to disagree about that. IF this system were to be sheared heavily I would say Florida to NC would be a good possibility, but it appears the TUTT may be lifting out and weakening which means Bertha will have the opportunity to become stronger and be pulled more northward towards NC or out to sea. Beyond this is the question on whether the high builds back in and pushes it towards the Mid-Atlantic region or it goes out to sea. Florida is a possibility, but is very unlikely compared to a recurve or NC brush. Not -removed- here just stating the facts from the models. In summary, anyone on the EC needs to be on the lookout, but particularly the Carolinas, Bermuda, and northward have the most to worry about currently.

And no one is disagreeing with that. Most of us feel this is the likely scenario. But it isn't written in stone and that is the point.

I agree, just that people keep talking about it hitting Florida when that seems like the most unlikely scenario. I don't mind it, but it just seems much more likely that if Bertha survives and if it hits land it would be in the Mid-Atlantic region. However, as we know with the models, they could underestimate the strength of the high and then Florida would be under the gun, possibly like the UKMET. Hopefully we will have a better picture by Monday or Tuesday.

[jinftl]

is there that much certainty and consensus that the ridge and any troughs will be oriented in such a way as to drive bertha to mid-atlantic? i have not seen any forecast product that sounds the alarm or all clear for what is a very small geographic region this far out....what if the ridge moves bertha at 285 degrees and not 295 deg? At this point, that could be huge as far as eventual strike area... i am not buying south florida as least likely scenario at this point...i would say central america is the least likely

[Cryomaniac]

Why are we talking about South Florida? Climatologically that result would be one of the rarest storm landfalls in a while and nothing supports landfall there anyway.

Give that a 2% at best.

You fail to realise that million to one shots happen nine times out of ten

Seriously though, I see no reason why people can't talk about an SFL landfall if they want. Is it likely? No. Is it possible? Yes.

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, it is not based on any information, meteorological, economic or otherwise. As such it should not be used for any purpose.

As I said earlier in the thread, my gut feeling is saying that Bertha will become a Hurricane, and that it wont hit the mainland USA.