TC Bertha

[robbielyn]

I just watched baynews9 weather forecast. the high is forecast to move westward all the way in to the eastern coast of fl. this may be what the ukmet is seeing.

Can someone provide me with a direct link to what the bermuda high setup is for the next four or five days? And is there a weakness in the ridge forecasted in that time period?

By the way there is an ul meandering in the ockochobee area and soon this high that is forecasted to move west literally bumps this ul south and then west like a ping pong ball. If this were to hold true then bertha may be moving west a whole lot longer than predicted and may end up in the straits

[txwatcher91]

New burst of fairly intense convection.

[robbielyn]

New burst of fairly intense convection.

Thats common with the diurnal at night for some flare ups lets see how it looks in the morning. but what I have noticed is that it is creating its own environment pushing the dry air west. it doesnt seem to be entraining the dry air albeit I am not saying the dry air is having no effect.

[txwatcher91]

The dry air is most likely just slowing down development along with cooler SST's. Both should gradually improve within the next 72 hours, and that is when hurricane strength is possible. DMIN is still about 8-10 hours away so it may look pretty impressive by morning if that burst expands.

[canetracker]

I just watched baynews9 weather forecast. the high is forecast to move westward all the way in to the eastern coast of fl. this may be what the ukmet is seeing.

Can someone provide me with a direct link to what the bermuda high setup is for the next four or five days? And is there a weakness in the ridge forecasted in that time period?

By the way there is an ul meandering in the ockochobee area and soon this high that is forecasted to move west literally bumps this ul south and then west like a ping pong ball. If this were to hold true then bertha may be moving west a whole lot longer than predicted and may end up in the straits

This is the latest. I used to have an animated one that goes farther out in time, but cant locate it right now. You can always use the models, like the GFS and put it on 500 mb heights.

[gotoman38]

New burst of fairly intense convection.

Thats common with the diurnal at night for some flare ups lets see how it looks in the morning. but what I have noticed is that it is creating its own environment pushing the dry air west. it doesnt seem to be entraining the dry air albeit I am not saying the dry air is having no effect.

I agree - she seems to be holding her own facing the dryer air in front of her.

But - she seems to have a "flattening" of convection on her lower left for last few hours - anyone else notice this? Will it continue, and if so, might it be her demise?

[Aric Dunn]

take a look the convection is trying to wrap around.. that the best i have seen it yet.

[robbielyn]

New burst of fairly intense convection.

Thats common with the diurnal at night for some flare ups lets see how it looks in the morning. but what I have noticed is that it is creating its own environment pushing the dry air west. it doesnt seem to be entraining the dry air albeit I am not saying the dry air is having no effect.

I agree - she seems to be holding her own facing the dryer air in front of her.

But - she seems to have a "flattening" of convection on her lower left for last few hours - anyone else notice this? Will it continue, and if so, might it be her demise?

Yes it is right now having an effect but i don't believe this is her demise she will fight this with everything she's got she is a moderate ts not a td. She will hold her own for now.

[CourierPR]

Hasn't that flat spot been there most of today?

[Normandy]

Bertha looks as good as it did yesterday (IE no it wont dissipate despite all of the negative factors being mentioned). Its too well organized to just dissipate within a day or so. Itll make it through the NHC forecast period.

[HURAKAN]

Almost there.

[robbielyn]

Can a more knowledgeable poster give me some feedback on the high's setup towards the west over the next few days as to whether or not the ts will stay westerly or not? I am a novice for sure and these are my observations but hey I welcome more knowledge so help me.
I think if this ridge forecasted to move west over fl is strong and holds it's own bertha will sneak underneath it but again thats my novice thoughts. I welcome more professional ones.

[txwatcher91]

Can a more knowledgeable poster give me some feedback on the high's setup towards the west over the next few days as to whether or not the ts will stay westerly or not? I am a novice for sure and these are my observations but hey I welcome more knowledge so help me.
I think if this ridge forecasted to move west over fl is strong and holds it's own bertha will sneak underneath it but again thats my novice thoughts. I welcome more professional ones.

The high that is supposed to move over FL is supposed to come in from the west, I believe, creating a "squeeze" between the Bermuda and Florida/Gom high. At least that is my understanding.

[ronjon]

Seems HPC thinks ridging may be hanging tough for next weekend. From this afternoon's discussion:

TS BERTHA FORECAST TO BECOME HURRICANE MAY APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEAST SEABOARD NEXT WEEKEND UNDER MID LEVEL RIDGING. SEE NHC DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES.

[MiamiensisWx]

Too many people utilize water vapor imagery for "dry air"/"moisture" judgments. You should look at the lower levels to gauge moisture and thermodynamics. The "dry air" on the water vapor image is actually at the mid levels, which may often enhance convection. The water vapor images only indicate the mid to upper levels. Mid level dry air is not detrimental to a TC's intensity, nor does it preclude intensification. However, low level dry air, dust, temperature/subsidence inversions, or a stable boundary layer is much more destructive or prohibitive for a TC. Currently, the LLC has been partially exposed because of southerly shear from convective outflow to the south and a stable boundary layer. Additionally, a SAL is present as well. Those are the real reasons for the relative lack of convection on Bertha's southern semicircle.

[CrazyC83]

Can a more knowledgeable poster give me some feedback on the high's setup towards the west over the next few days as to whether or not the ts will stay westerly or not? I am a novice for sure and these are my observations but hey I welcome more knowledge so help me.
I think if this ridge forecasted to move west over fl is strong and holds it's own bertha will sneak underneath it but again thats my novice thoughts. I welcome more professional ones.

The high that is supposed to move over FL is supposed to come in from the west, I believe, creating a "squeeze" between the Bermuda and Florida/Gom high. At least that is my understanding.

That would deflect it northward?

[robbielyn]

Can a more knowledgeable poster give me some feedback on the high's setup towards the west over the next few days as to whether or not the ts will stay westerly or not? I am a novice for sure and these are my observations but hey I welcome more knowledge so help me.
I think if this ridge forecasted to move west over fl is strong and holds it's own bertha will sneak underneath it but again thats my novice thoughts. I welcome more professional ones.

The high that is supposed to move over FL is supposed to come in from the west, I believe, creating a "squeeze" between the Bermuda and Florida/Gom high. At least that is my understanding.

So how would this play out?

[robbielyn]

Can a more knowledgeable poster give me some feedback on the high's setup towards the west over the next few days as to whether or not the ts will stay westerly or not? I am a novice for sure and these are my observations but hey I welcome more knowledge so help me.
I think if this ridge forecasted to move west over fl is strong and holds it's own bertha will sneak underneath it but again thats my novice thoughts. I welcome more professional ones.

The high that is supposed to move over FL is supposed to come in from the west, I believe, creating a "squeeze" between the Bermuda and Florida/Gom high. At least that is my understanding.

So how would this play out?

I ask this because what i saw on baynews9 is that the western periphery actually goes in the se part of the coast. Unless there is a weakness in the ridge that baby isn't going north anytime soon. I think it could end up well south of the predicted forecast.

[JonathanBelles]

Something just came up in chat that I thought was post worthy. This storm's perfect motto would have to be 'If it doesnt kill me, it'll only make me stronger'. Its gone/going/will go through dry air, a stable airmass, low OHC/SST, shear, and a tremendous distance.

[MiamiensisWx]

Too many people utilize water vapor imagery for "dry air"/"moisture" judgments. You should look at the lower levels to gauge moisture and thermodynamics. The "dry air" on the water vapor image is actually at the mid levels, which may often enhance convection. The water vapor images only indicate the mid to upper levels. Mid level dry air is not detrimental to a TC's intensity, nor does it preclude intensification. However, low level dry air, dust, temperature/subsidence inversions, or a stable boundary layer is much more destructive or prohibitive for a TC. Currently, the LLC has been partially exposed because of southerly shear from convective outflow to the south and a stable boundary layer. Additionally, a SAL is present as well. Those are the real reasons for the relative lack of convection on Bertha's southern semicircle.

Bump for robbielyn and others...

Additionally, here is a decent link for information on the boundary layer:

http://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/boundlay.html