Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

[vacanechaser]

Looking at the water vapor imagery things look busier than usual to me, its no wonder they are hedging on the long range forecast.

A second trough scenario would seem like a good bet going with the odds, but the upper air environment is just a little too random to predict right now beyond about 36 hours. Short term we have a weakening system under a strong ridge headed west, thats a no brainer.

I would not be surprised if Bertha went a little south of the forecast track after temporarily poofing, but she has held up fairly well considering the cold SST's. The 17-20 knot forward speed will probably get her back over warmer water before she can dissipate.

i dont see where you get weakening, nor "after going poof"??? the stats are the same, no change there... and in the latest visible and ir, convection has increased and the center is less exposed then earlier today and even yesterday.. maybe you can enlighten me a little


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

NOT OFFICIAL

vacanechaser you might get something close to home to chase soon...I know it is too early to tell but if anyone in the US was threatened by Bertha it would
probably be the midatlantic based on the current models

or it could go out to sea
or florida (climatologically/synoptically unlikely)

[Nimbus]

i dont see where you get weakening, nor "after going poof"??? the stats are the same, no change there

Still 45 knots at the 5 PM. The cooler water and stable air may weaken her some overnight, but that is just my guess nothing about further weakening in the official forecast.

[vacanechaser]

i dont see where you get weakening, nor "after going poof"??? the stats are the same, no change there

Still 45 knots at the 5 PM. The cooler water and stable air may weaken her some overnight, but that is just my guess nothing about further weakening in the official forecast.

ok... didnt want to sound like an ass.. just was unsure where you were coming from with that... take a look at the satellite image now... i think it looks better right now than it has all day... structurally speaking.... convection is not all that deep right now, but seems to be on the increase and the circulation is not exposed like earlier today... thanx for the enlightnment



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

NOT OFFICIAL

vacanechaser you might get something close to home to chase soon...I know it is too early to tell but if anyone in the US was threatened by Bertha it would
probably be the midatlantic based on the current models

or it could go out to sea
or florida (climatologically/synoptically unlikely)

yea, i am thinking it looks like the carolinas to me... i dont think fla is a target.. imo, nothing would suggest that at this point... i know we and places just south of me could really use the rain... plus feeling that wind in your hair after 2 years is not a horrible thing... ... now lets not take that out of context.. i am not looking for a cat 4-5 people.. or even a 3...

hey, i gotta have something to chase, after the suffolk tornado and the video i had of it all over the news, i have had nothing to chase!!!! lol.. been kinda dry and boring until the last day or so!!



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Rainband]

NOT OFFICIAL

vacanechaser you might get something close to home to chase soon...I know it is too early to tell but if anyone in the US was threatened by Bertha it would
probably be the midatlantic based on the current models

or it could go out to sea
or florida (climatologically/synoptically unlikely)

yea, i am thinking it looks like the carolinas to me... i dont think fla is a target.. imo, nothing would suggest that at this point... i know we and places just south of me could really use the rain... plus feeling that wind in your hair after 2 years is not a horrible thing... ... now lets not take that out of context.. i am not looking for a cat 4-5 people.. or even a 3...

hey, i gotta have something to chase, after the suffolk tornado and the video i had of it all over the news, i have had nothing to chase!!!! lol.. been kinda dry and boring until the last day or so!!



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I think it will be a fish as first forecast.

[SouthFloridawx]

The new 18Z from the GFS is up to 90 hours now. Looks like the ridge is going to weaken, but will the trough be amplified or will it be weak and pull out quickly, allowing the ridge to build back in?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_500_lu_loop.shtml

00 Hour

90 Hour

[SouthFloridawx]

The tricky part with this system is that if it undergoes shear, it will remain weak and embedded with the easterlies. If shear is not as strong as thought it will be a more deep layered system and be influenced more by the weakness in the ridge.

I'm leaning more towards the middle ground, and I'm not sold on any east coast threat as of yet. Perhaps if you were in Bermuda, I would be looking at the weather a few times a day to see what's going on.

[vacanechaser]

The new 18Z from the GFS is up to 90 hours now. Looks like the ridge is going to weaken, but will the trough be amplified or will it be weak and pull out quickly, allowing the ridge to build back in?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_500_lu_loop.shtml

00 Hour

90 Hour

the only thing with that is, its the 18z.... those runs usually do not do well at all as it is is run off of incomplete data... basiclly run off the 12z... the 0z and the 12z are the models of the gfs to watch imo..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

Yes,Jesse is right,the runs with all the data are the 00z and 12z runs.

[vacanechaser]

Yes,Jesse is right,the runs with all the data are the 00z and 12z runs.

thanx cycloneye... does not make them useless, but not very good... the 0z tonight is the run to watch... 8pm and 8am runs are the best..those take into account the weather ballon data and other data..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Aric Dunn]

the 18z gfs is confused... lol
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Derek Ortt]

what's confusing about it?

it is forecasting recurvature. Very straight forward. Shows the storm eventually getting picked up by the second trough

this is NOT saying I am ready to commit to recurvature... that is well too soon to do

[Aric Dunn]

what's confusing about it?

it is forecasting recurvature. Very straight forward. Shows the storm eventually getting picked up by the second trough

this is NOT saying I am ready to commit to recurvature... that is well too soon to do

i was talking about the low coming of the se us then becoming tropical and heading over florida.. the end of the run im going to disregard this time .. well i never really have any faith that far out anyway., beside that low interacts with bertha..

[Ivanhater]

18z favors a recurve now EAST of Bermuda...

[Derek Ortt]

will be great news if the trend of a right shift continues into tomorrow

[Aric Dunn]

will be great news if the trend of a right shift continues into tomorrow

i have to give you credit .. you are the king of one liners..

[cycloneye]

GFDL goes north as Bertha gets strong in the run,a cat 2.



Animation.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[MiamiensisWx]

will be great news if the trend of a right shift continues into tomorrow

I respect your opinion, and I agree with the idea of an eventual recurvature, but I'm not sure that you can definitely make this prognosis if the synoptics suggest a more westward track. Some models have been struggling with the intensity forecasts for Bertha over the past few days, and they have continually depicted a more intense TC than reality. Additionally, they initially overestimated the strength of the upper level ridging. I wouldn't eliminate the possibility of a NC brush/hit.

Could you elaborate on your statement? I would really like to hear your "background" reasoning that supports those models' tracks. Thanks!

[cycloneye]

HWRF also has a hurricane cat 1 and also goes north.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation