TC Bertha

[NDG]

It appears that the southwestly shear has returned, with the cloud tops being shear to the north of the LLC once again. That small burst was right over the LLC; at least it would appear so. I would place the LLC near 16.9/42.1 and moving just north of west.

Yeah, she has getting probably about 15knot southerly shear from the ULL to her SSW tracking westward along with her. Next 24-48 hrs look to stay the same before increasing even more.

[Cryomaniac]

ok let me be more specific. Is my thoughts on the bermuda high and the westward movement of bertha without any nw movement without merit or is it a possibility? I am saying this could end up in the carribean or the gom maybe.

The bolded portion is impossible. However, the possibility of a path further west than indicated by some of the models is very real.

Nothing is impossible.

[southerngale]

Well arguing about this is pointless. One thing i would like to note.
I think that climo is as good as garbage when it comes to forcasting storm paths. the only thing that should be considered is the current conditions. Climo is all about the past and the past has nothing to do with whats going on now.

Kelly and I aren't arguing with you. We are giving you a "Friendly" reminder of the Rules.

no criticism = poor discussion

Nobody ever said you couldn't criticize. Constructive criticism can be quite helpful at times, actually. Nothing wrong with that! It's the namecalling and insulting everyone in two states that we have a problem with.
While there will always be people who seem to want a hurricane to affect them (usually those who are naive and have never experienced one), there are also a lot of people who are just interested in weather and/or simply concerned. To insult everyone like that will keep many people who are concerned about it affecting them from asking questions or making comments. We want to encourage participation from everyone, regardless of their knowledge of weather. When we see people making outrageous predictions, we handle it. We also ask that our members use the report button to notify us of any problem posts.

But it's common sense that the overwhelming majority of people are more concerned about a hurricane that could potentially affect them. So logically, their comments and questions will reflect that. Not everyone is into the science of it. Everyone should keep that in mind when replying to others.

[Chacor]

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1310
MILES...2110 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS BERTHA REMAINS OVER
THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

[vegastar]

Still 45KT.


TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 43.2W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.

[deltadog03]

I still see the LLC down around 16.6N or so....Its clearly south of the deep convection. Its still racing WEST.

[Chacor]

IT IS
FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF OR WHEN BERTHA WILL RECURVE. THE NEW
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD
BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE CONSENSUS.
...
THE WATERS BENEATH BERTHA ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 26 CELSIUS AND
CONTINUE TO GET WARMER AS THE CYCLONE PROCEEDS WESTWARD...AND BY 48
HOURS FROM NOW THEY SHOULD BE APPROACHING 28 CELSIUS. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD...SO GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN LINE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND BERTHA COULD BE A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE WATERS WILL BE PLENTY WARM...SO THE
DETERMINING FACTOR ON THE INTENSITY OF BERTHA WILL PROBABLY BE WIND
SHEAR.
...
THE SHIPS AND LGEM FORECAST 70-75 KT AT 72-120 HOURS...SO
THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT 70 KT...A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This helps to confirm my earlier thinking. This placed the LLC around 16.8/42 west as of 4z...Which is about 10-11pm pst/1-2am est. This was around I said where the LLC up-thread. I believe the LLC is now closer to 17/43.3, but it could be slightly farther south of that. Can't wait intil visible!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[SouthFloridawx]

IT IS
FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF OR WHEN BERTHA WILL RECURVE. THE NEW
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD
BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE CONSENSUS.
...
THE WATERS BENEATH BERTHA ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 26 CELSIUS AND
CONTINUE TO GET WARMER AS THE CYCLONE PROCEEDS WESTWARD...AND BY 48
HOURS FROM NOW THEY SHOULD BE APPROACHING 28 CELSIUS. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD...SO GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN LINE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND BERTHA COULD BE A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE WATERS WILL BE PLENTY WARM...SO THE
DETERMINING FACTOR ON THE INTENSITY OF BERTHA WILL PROBABLY BE WIND
SHEAR.
...
THE SHIPS AND LGEM FORECAST 70-75 KT AT 72-120 HOURS...SO
THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT 70 KT...A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

Sounds like we'll be hearing about Hurricane Bertha soon... No Doubt.

[deltadog03]

I agree Matt, I think its fairly easy to spot the LLC. On IR2 you can see the low clouds spinning west. Still dissplaced from the deep convection. I think NHC is a bit too far north with there center...but, not the end of the world...

[hial2]

IT IS
FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF OR WHEN BERTHA WILL RECURVE.
...

Startling statement..and they actually mention the "I" word.."if"

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Take a nice look at that shear map! If this TUTT don't move out of its way, this is dead storm spinning! Maybe not, but it will keep on having a hard time, maybe this is what the ukmet has been seeing?

I've been watching a ULL cut off and move east-southeastward from the main ULL as of a few hours ago to. These maps show that shear has increased to its northwest by 10-15 knots, with increasing shear over the cyclone. I must respectfully disagree with the nhc thinking on how "favorable" the environment they are promising Bertha, at least in the short term.. In fact if this keeps up this is going to have a hard time for the next 48-60 hours.

If this takes another stair step or moves any more fast, then houston bertha will have a problem.

I do expect the tutt to move eastward and get out of the way. So if it can survive another 36-48 hours, then the light turns green.

[Derek Ortt]

the shear IS getting out of the way

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

the shear IS getting out of the way

At the moment shear is increasing, but yes shear should be getting out of the way, as Ull moves away from the cyclone. But don't expect strengthing today, maybe tomarrow.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I still see the LLC down around 16.6N or so....Its clearly south of the deep convection. Its still racing WEST.

You appear to be very close to being right, based on visible!

[TheShrimper]

Delta, I see the visible reflecting the NHC's latittudinal coordinate @ 17.3N. It is hauling to the west, and appears to be at 43.8W. I didn't look to see at what time the last image was at on the Floater loop. It is definately north of 17N, though.

[deltadog03]

Best guess right now to me looks like it is near 16.9N and 44W. moving around 280 degrees.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Wait a min. two things 1 wheres recon and 2 if it's farther south then that puts it track wise farther west right????

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 061043
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
643 AM AST SUN JUL 6 2008

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA SHOULD BE PASSING WELL NORTH OF
THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...WE ARE KEEPING CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS
SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES EVOLVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. WE WILL
MAINTAIN ADJUSTING THE WEATHER GRIDS AS MANY TIMES WE THINK IS
NECESSARY TO KEEP THE PUBLIC INFORM AT ALL TIMES WITH THE LATEST
DATA AVAILABLE.

[cycloneye]

Strait West.

06/1145 UTC 17.3N 43.9W T3.0/3.0 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html