TC Bertha

[HurricaneHunter914]

If the NHC's coordinates are correct, the convection is running ahead and to the north of the LLC.

Actually, those coordinates place the LLC right about in the center of the convection.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

At 11am, 17.4N/45.1W, that is 66 miles W from the NHC Sat 11pm 12 hr forecast. That's quite a bit of error for a 12hr forecast from the NHC.

that is incorrect

the verifying position is at 12Z, not 15Z

[Chacor]

Edit: Post no longer required.

[KWT]

Well Bertha is looking good, I see most of the models now have this system tapping into the deeper steering currents and therefore gets taken off to the north before the USA...however given Bertha formed so far east and looks like coming within 10 degrees of the USA it will be interesting to see what happens if something forms closer.

Anyway cool to see recon, I was waiting to see when we got there!

[NDG]

If the NHC's coordinates are correct, the convection is running ahead and to the north of the LLC.

Actually, those coordinates place the LLC right about in the center of the convection.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Still to the south of most convection.

[Mecklenburg]

does bertha bear resemblance to hurricane isabel?

[cheezyWXguy]

does bertha bear resemblance to hurricane isabel?

not really...not as strong, poorer environment, cooler SST's, different time of year. But its certainly looking better than it did before...however I dont expect another annular cat5 to traverse the atlantic for a while. Now that was rare.

[boca]

I think Bermuda still needs to pay close attention to this system since wxman's 57 map shows the weakness around The Bermuda area.

[Blown Away]

At 11am, 17.4N/45.1W, that is 66 miles W from the NHC Sat 11pm 12 hr forecast. That's quite a bit of error for a 12hr forecast from the NHC.

that is incorrect
the verifying position is at 12Z, not 15Z

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 17.0N 41.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 17.4N 44.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 18.1N 47.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 18.9N 51.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 19.6N 53.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 21.5N 59.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 23.5N 63.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 26.0N 67.5W 65 KT

11am 17.4N/45.1W

[Sjones]

For an unknown reason...no science or education to back this up...I don't feel that Bertha will take a NW turn at all. Maybe just a gut instinct. Is is possible that the High that is forecasted to be over Florida move to the East and Bertha travel under it?

[wxman57]

Here's a little better McIDAS shot. I plotted the NHC 15Z position on the 1445Z image. Sure looks like there is curved banding north of their position forecast. I can't see any low cloud elements streaming into their position.

[Blown Away]

There are some models that continue Bertha W, most turn her for now. Accuweather not afraid to point their cone at the USA.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... stormNum=1

[x-y-no]

For an unknown reason...no science or education to back this up...I don't feel that Bertha will take a NW turn at all. Maybe just a gut instinct. Is is possible that the High that is forecasted to be over Florida move to the East and Bertha travel under it?

The movement and position of that subtropical high is in response to the Rossby wave pattern. For your scenario to happen, the trough digging into the east coast would need to be shallower than progged and to lift out more quickly. Not impossible, but pretty unlikely.

[cycloneye]

57,that is why recon is needed to fix the real positions.But we will have to wait until tuesday.

[x-y-no]

There are some models that continue Bertha W, most turn her for now. Accuweather not afraid to point their cone at the USA.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... stormNum=1

I'll leave it at this: it's very bold, maybe too bold, to project beyond five days.

[wxman57]

57,that is why recon is needed to fix the real positions.But we will have to wait until tuesday.

Yeah, recon will help. I was attending the AMS tropical conference in Orlando back in April where they were talking about the next generation of satellites to replace QuikSCAT (XOVWM - neXt generation of Ocean Vector Wind Measurements or something similar). This proposed (key word - proposed) satellite will be able to see through rain (unlike QS) and multiple satellites may give a return period of 1-3 hours vs. QS's 12-48 hrs. However, no launches planned in the next 5 years or more. QS should be gone by then. Can someone send them a few hundred million dollars to get started on the satellites. They'll need a lot more later, but a couple hundred million would get them going.

[Steve]

>>...I kept asking for an explanation and couldn't get one...That was all I wanted to know.

In the future, you might do better to go to the Tropical Analysis forum and ask a question in one of the pro met's threads. If they have time to get to it and if you aren't a persistent p.i.t.a. (not that you were, just suggesting), you'll probably get any answer that you want.



Steve

['CaneFreak]

57,that is why recon is needed to fix the real positions.But we will have to wait until tuesday.

Yeah, recon will help. I was attending the AMS tropical conference in Orlando back in April where they were talking about the next generation of satellites to replace QuikSCAT (XOVWM - neXt generation of Ocean Vector Wind Measurements or something similar). This proposed (key word - proposed) satellite will be able to see through rain (unlike QS) and multiple satellites may give a return period of 1-3 hours vs. QS's 12-48 hrs. However, no launches planned in the next 5 years or more. QS should be gone by then. Can someone send them a few hundred million dollars to get started on the satellites. They'll need a lot more later, but a couple hundred million would get them going.

Let me reach right in my back pocket here....there it is...here we go..

[Blown Away]

Accuweather just backed off w/ their cone and a Bertha landfall in the Carolinas, but now they have extended it to give the appearence that SFL is included. They must be thinking the second trough may be to shallow to turn Bertha, I can't see any other way for Bertha to make it to the CONUS.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... stormNum=1