TC Bertha

[Stephanie]

Well, if she does hit the CONUS where Accuweather predicts, it'll be in an area that can certainly use the rainfall.

[KWT]

Hmm it does look like Bertha may be a little north of where the estimates put it I do also see some banding features further north fairly close to 18N but whether or not that is an illusion I haven't a clue!

Hmmm recon is going to help but the center may end up emerging before then anyway...

[wxman57]

Actually, the presentations from last spring's AMS meeting are online. You can see the PowerPoints & recorded audio that went along with them. Here's one of the talks on XOVWM:

http://ams.confex.com/ams/28Hurricanes/ ... 138597.htm

There were a number of other presentations on the XOVWM project. Click the play button and a little program called webex will need to be run to play the presentation.

You can even find Derek's presentation in there somewhere, on Tuesday, I think.

[Kennethb]

Being early July, the strength and impacts of troughs are a little less than you would have during latter August into September, while ridges tend to be a little stronger in early July. Too weather features are a little slower to evolve, move, transition during the middle of summer than models try to indicate. Not out of the questions for Bertha to go further west, though an eventual, slow WNW toNW turn at this time more likely.

[KWT]

Indeed Stephanie not sure they need a hurricane though!
I'm not too sure about the track myself yet. I think it should get enough latitude to get picked up by the trough but I always have a feeling models can over-estimate these features and how well they dig, esp outside of 72-96hrs. Also the ECM has made me feel a little wary esp as its a possible set-up if the high can build back in again.

[Blown Away]

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-dem ... on=weather

Pretty bold.

[blobby2]

Wow - a weather web forum. This is interesting. Most people today use cool things like blogs, social networks or social media sites like Plurk and Twitter to discuss the weather. This is very old school but sometimes old school is cool.

I hope this isn't one of those super conservative forums where everyone is all like george bush rules and global warming is total bs. I hate those. The problem with forums is usually the biases of the founder(s) get pushed throughout the site so if the founder is big republican and/or a big bush lover they tend to quash alternative points of view and boot out liberals. They will say crap like "you're being political" and use it to boot people out - pretty pathetic, huh? That's why social media is better than forums and it's why forums are totally dying out all over the Internet but there do seem to be a few folks here.

My thoughts on the storm - @wxmen's analysis is very good and shows high pressure apparently keeping Florida safe but I think Bertha will go farther west than most people think. However, I think he has totally dropped the ball and he will be proven to be wrong on Bertha. I think there is a reason the NHC is being so cautious. This is July and the fronts are not very strong this time of year. Bertha won't rush north unless it is already a powerful system by the time it reaches the weakness. This will impact the U.S. mainland somwhere imho - the only thing that will keep Bertha from doing so is if she decouples at sea.

[RL3AO]

Wow - a weather web forum. This is interesting. Most people today use cool things like blogs, social networks or social media sites like Plurk and Twitter to discuss the weather. This is very old school but sometimes old school is cool.

I hope this isn't one of those super conservative forums where everyone is all like george bush rules and global warming is total bs. I hate those. The problem with forums is usually the biases of the founder(s) get pushed throughout the site so if the founder is big republican and/or a big bush lover they tend to quash alternative points of view and boot out liberals. They will say crap like "you're being political" and use it to boot people out - pretty pathetic, huh? That's why social media is better than forums and it's why forums are totally dying out all over the Internet but there do seem to be a few folks here.

My thoughts on the storm - @wxmen's analysis is very good and shows high pressure apparently keeping Florida safe but I think Bertha will go farther west than most people think. However, I think he has totally dropped the ball and he will be proven to be wrong on Bertha. I think there is a reason the NHC is being so cautious. This is July and the fronts are not very strong this time of year. Bertha won't rush north unless it is already a powerful system by the time it reaches the weakness. This will impact the U.S. mainland somwhere imho - the only thing that will keep Bertha from doing so is if she decouples at sea.

No political posts allowed. Period.

And welcome to S2K, enjoy your stay.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

There does look like there is some banding now starting to become more obvious.

as for Accuweather, very bold forecast indeed and its also a good bit further south then other models are, saying that I think this may be a close call for the east coast and so with Accuweather raising awareness I suppose isn't a bad thing as its not totally impossible it tracks further west then progged, or the trough isn't as deep and as sharp as the models prog.

[canegrl04]

Wow - a weather web forum. This is interesting. Most people today use cool things like blogs, social networks or social media sites like Plurk and Twitter to discuss the weather. This is very old school but sometimes old school is cool.

I hope this isn't one of those super conservative forums where everyone is all like george bush rules and global warming is total bs. I hate those. The problem with forums is usually the biases of the founder(s) get pushed throughout the site so if the founder is big republican and/or a big bush lover they tend to quash alternative points of view and boot out liberals. They will say crap like "you're being political" and use it to boot people out - pretty pathetic, huh? That's why social media is better than forums and it's why forums are totally dying out all over the Internet but there do seem to be a few folks here.

My thoughts on the storm - @wxmen's analysis is very good and shows high pressure apparently keeping Florida safe but I think Bertha will go farther west than most people think. However, I think he has totally dropped the ball and he will be proven to be wrong on Bertha. I think there is a reason the NHC is being so cautious. This is July and the fronts are not very strong this time of year. Bertha won't rush north unless it is already a powerful system by the time it reaches the weakness. This will impact the U.S. mainland somwhere imho - the only thing that will keep Bertha from doing so is if she decouples at sea.

Welcome to the forum! No political posts allowed.Just strickly about the tropics.Every politically idealogy can share that in common

[blobby2]

Glad to hear that @RL3AO and @canegrl04

[kpost]

Hi i am new, but i am trying to learn.
can someone tell me what this is http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al022008_ens.png

it looks completely different from the other ones.

-some info about me i just got interested after my family and i moved to the barrier island outside Melbourne Fl. (from Ohio)
i am really trying to learn so bare with me i am having trouble with some of the technical talk.
What i have so far is that this is an abnormality, and that nobody knows where it may go, as a newbie, when do you normally find out when you are in real danger?

[RL3AO]

Hi i am new, but i am trying to learn.
can someone tell me what this is http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al022008_ens.png

Thats the GFS Ensambles.

I believe it takes slightly different starting conditions for each of the 20 runs. Someone else should be able to expand on that and answer the rest of your question.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I smell a rat....

But on a different note, it seems like Bertha is becoming more organized. 55 mph by 5pm?

[RL3AO]

I smell a rat....

But on a different note, it seems like Bertha is becoming more organized. 55 mph by 5pm?

I'll bet you a million dollars it won't be.


Explaination: Can't have an advisory of 55mph, since the NHC issues advisories in kts. 45kts (currently) rounds to 50 mph. 50kts rounds to 60 mph.

[x-y-no]

Hi i am new, but i am trying to learn.
can someone tell me what this is http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al022008_ens.png

it looks completely different from the other ones.

-some info about me i just got interested after my family and i moved to the barrier island outside Melbourne Fl. (from Ohio)
i am really trying to learn so bare with me i am having trouble with some of the technical talk.
What i have so far is that this is an abnormality, and that nobody knows where it may go, as a newbie, when do you normally find out when you are in real danger?

That's a plot of the GFS ensemble. Basically, it's the GFS model run with slight variations in initial conditions and parameters. The ensemble average actually performed very well last year, but this set of runs may be somewhat suspect due to the GFS having initialized Bertha as very weak.

[HURAKAN]

The center looks clearly co-located with the area of convection.

[KWT]

Southern side of Bertha is still a little on the flat side but I suppose there is still some very light shear present helping to flattening it out a little. I think 50kts is quite possible next advisory but we will see.

[Blown Away]

WNW wobble in the last few frames.