TC Bertha

[HURAKAN]

RL3AO, the NHC have issued advisories with wind speeds of 55 mph in the past.

[RL3AO]

RL3AO, the NHC have issued advisories with wind speeds of 55 mph in the past.

How? 45kts=52mph (rounds to 50), 50kts=58mph (rounds to 60).

[Stephanie]

Indeed Stephanie not sure they need a hurricane though!
I'm not too sure about the track myself yet. I think it should get enough latitude to get picked up by the trough but I always have a feeling models can over-estimate these features and how well they dig, esp outside of 72-96hrs. Also the ECM has made me feel a little wary esp as its a possible set-up if the high can build back in again.

Agree 100%.

It always seems that the way for the South, Midatlantic or Gulf to get out of a drought is via a tropical storm or hurricane. Feast or famine. If it does happen, hopefully it'll be a minimal storm at best.

[HURAKAN]

RL3AO, the NHC have issued advisories with wind speeds of 55 mph in the past.

How? 45kts=52mph (rounds to 50), 50kts=58mph (rounds to 60).

I can't remember the storm right now but they have done it.

[Normandy]

Judging from that microwave pass and visibles, I would say the center is on the southern edge of the convection.

[jlauderdal]

57,that is why recon is needed to fix the real positions.But we will have to wait until tuesday.

Yeah, recon will help. I was attending the AMS tropical conference in Orlando back in April where they were talking about the next generation of satellites to replace QuikSCAT (XOVWM - neXt generation of Ocean Vector Wind Measurements or something similar). This proposed (key word - proposed) satellite will be able to see through rain (unlike QS) and multiple satellites may give a return period of 1-3 hours vs. QS's 12-48 hrs. However, no launches planned in the next 5 years or more. QS should be gone by then. Can someone send them a few hundred million dollars to get started on the satellites. They'll need a lot more later, but a couple hundred million would get them going.

Let me reach right in my back pocket here....there it is...here we go..

a stipend from economic stimulus package or a few minutes of iraq should cover it

[HURAKAN]

TS Chris:

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...20.0 N...65.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

[Chacor]

RL3AO, the NHC have issued advisories with wind speeds of 55 mph in the past.

I don't remember seeing one in recent times, although it's possible in an intermediate advisory or TC update I guess.

[RL3AO]

TS Chris:

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...20.0 N...65.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

I figured it out. That was an intermediate. They only issue the public advisory, which is in mph.

[KWT]

Normandy, yep the NHC put this at 17.2N which is slightly on the southern side of the convection though not as bad as it was a few days ago. They had the movement at 275, wonder what they will have it that advisory.

[kpost]

Thanks RL3AO

Thats the GFS Ensambles.

and thanks to x-y-no for answering what that is.

HurricaneHunter914-
If the Rat remark was about me, can you please enlighten me on this because that would be a first for me. a 31 yr old mother of 2 girls (ages 5 & 8) that is concerned now that my house sits .5 miles from the ocean and .1 from the indian river on nothing but sand. i believe i have a right to being concerned. i do love it here though. if it was not sorry for the paranoia. i just tell my kids not to be rude or snide and that is the way that was read by me, if not i am sorry.

[Normandy]

Normandy, yep the NHC put this at 17.2N which is slightly on the southern side of the convection though not as bad as it was a few days ago. They had the movement at 275, wonder what they will have it that advisory.

Seems to still be moving at that heading...275-280ish.

[Sanibel]

This system is weird because it came out of Africa spinning and never stopped when most of the Atlantic was hostile. Spun right through the mid-Atlantic negative SAL area and is now moving towards better waters.

Any storm, especially in early July, that starts close to the Cape Verde islands is (most likely) going to recurve. Bertha just "nudged" slightly with a flat W edge so the pull-up is probably beginning to ease in. Must note that the area of the Atlantic north of the Antilles has not been a strong supporter of TC's in 2006 and 2007.

[RL3AO]

Thanks RL3AO

Thats the GFS Ensambles.

and thanks to x-y-no for answering what that is.

HurricaneHunter914-
If the Rat remark was about me, can you please enlighten me on this because that would be a first for me. a 31 yr old mother of 2 girls (ages 5 & 8) that is concerned now that my house sits .5 miles from the ocean and .1 from the indian river on nothing but sand. i believe i have a right to being concerned. i do love it here though. if it was not sorry for the paranoia. i just tell my kids not to be rude or snide and that is the way that was read by me, if not i am sorry.

Not sure who (if anyone) that comment was aimed at. No reason it should be you. Everyone was new at somepoint. You are right. You live in an area where you should be concerned. Just have your supplies up to date and listen to the NHC.

[Decomdoug]

Thanks RL3AO

Thats the GFS Ensambles.

and thanks to x-y-no for answering what that is.

HurricaneHunter914-
If the Rat remark was about me, can you please enlighten me on this because that would be a first for me. a 31 yr old mother of 2 girls (ages 5 & 8) that is concerned now that my house sits .5 miles from the ocean and .1 from the indian river on nothing but sand. i believe i have a right to being concerned. i do love it here though. if it was not sorry for the paranoia. i just tell my kids not to be rude or snide and that is the way that was read by me, if not i am sorry.

Not sure who (if anyone) that comment was aimed at. No reason it should be you. Everyone was new at somepoint. You are right. You live in an area where you should be concerned. Just have your supplies up to date and listen to the NHC.

Welcome to Storm2K. Hopefully your new house has a good set of storm shutters in case you need them.

[KWT]

Sanibel, this system is taking a track and lasting as long as an August system, we will have to see if it can get as strong as such a system on that track who knows!
The comparsions to Bertha 96 is quite striking though I have to admit taking everything into consideration.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Thanks RL3AO

Thats the GFS Ensambles.

and thanks to x-y-no for answering what that is.

HurricaneHunter914-
If the Rat remark was about me, can you please enlighten me on this because that would be a first for me. a 31 yr old mother of 2 girls (ages 5 & 8) that is concerned now that my house sits .5 miles from the ocean and .1 from the indian river on nothing but sand. i believe i have a right to being concerned. i do love it here though. if it was not sorry for the paranoia. i just tell my kids not to be rude or snide and that is the way that was read by me, if not i am sorry.

Not sure who (if anyone) that comment was aimed at. No reason it should be you. Everyone was new at somepoint. You are right. You live in an area where you should be concerned. Just have your supplies up to date and listen to the NHC.

kpost, I'm sorry if I worried you, but I also am kind of paranoid at the moment. With two people joining at the same time after the "incident", I jumped to conclusions. If you're here because you are worried about these systems, then I guess I'll just have to believe you on that. Sorry, and welcome to Storm2k!

[kpost]

No problem, but i am off to enjoy the weather for now, storms in the forecast, daily here it seems. will check back later my husband says i am getting too obsessed with this.

['CaneFreak]

Ladies and Gentlemen I have an announcement:

SW shear has commenced. I now pronounce SW shear and TS Bertha man and wife. You may kiss your new bride.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

It is Light SW shear, but shear nonetheless...look at the cloud pattern...its strung SW to NE..

[Sanibel]

Sanibel, this system is taking a track and lasting as long as an August system, we will have to see if it can get as strong as such a system on that track who knows!

Which is why I think it will act like an August system in track, but actually be like a July offshore recurving TS that makes waves on Long Island.

This won't be an issue until tuesday at the earliest.