TC Bertha

[KWT]

Canefreak to be honest I don't really see any major shear with this system, no more then it has had for the last 72hrs to be honest, looks like if anything the whole system is expanding a little bit.

[RevDodd]

" my husband says i am getting too obsessed with this."

Is it possible to be too obsessed during hurricane season?

Welcome aboard! It's a great place to learn.

[loro-rojo]

Wow - a weather web forum. This is interesting. Most people today use cool things like blogs, social networks or social media sites like Plurk and Twitter to discuss the weather. This is very old school but sometimes old school is cool.

I hope this isn't one of those super conservative forums where everyone is all like george bush rules and global warming is total bs. I hate those. The problem with forums is usually the biases of the founder(s) get pushed throughout the site so if the founder is big republican and/or a big bush lover they tend to quash alternative points of view and boot out liberals. They will say crap like "you're being political" and use it to boot people out - pretty pathetic, huh? That's why social media is better than forums and it's why forums are totally dying out all over the Internet but there do seem to be a few folks here.

My thoughts on the storm - @wxmen's analysis is very good and shows high pressure apparently keeping Florida safe but I think Bertha will go farther west than most people think. However, I think he has totally dropped the ball and he will be proven to be wrong on Bertha. I think there is a reason the NHC is being so cautious. This is July and the fronts are not very strong this time of year. Bertha won't rush north unless it is already a powerful system by the time it reaches the weakness. This will impact the U.S. mainland somwhere imho - the only thing that will keep Bertha from doing so is if she decouples at sea.

What if the forum was super liberal, and everyone claimed that Bush sucked and that every hurricane is caused by Global Warming? Would that bother you at all?

Anyways.. no political comments are allowed, unless they are somehow involved with weather. Examples would be the Burma disaster weeks ago, but even then, political comments were very limited.

About global warming. I think the members of this forum have a very good understanding of the issue, and IMO.. are right most of the times.

BTW.. welcome to the forum.

[KBBOCA]

Kpost, welcome to Storm2K, it's a great place to learn. Don't miss the other forum on storm preparation hints,

viewforum.php?f=30

and there's also a glossary of terms, etc.

viewtopic.php?f=61&t=95832

and the question forum:
viewforum.php?f=42

Stay safe and enjoy Florida!

['CaneFreak]

Canefreak to be honest I don't really see any major shear with this system, no more then it has had for the last 72hrs to be honest, looks like if anything the whole system is expanding a little bit.

Nope..its getting sheared...20 to 30 knots...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[KWT]

The northern end is getting sheared but the center is under sub 10kts of shear which only light (SHIPS estimates at 9kts I think) and as long as the center is under low shear what happens further to the north isn't quite as important, indeed that shear may help to assist the outflow.

['CaneFreak]

The northern end is getting sheared but the center is under sub 10kts of shear which only light (SHIPS estimates at 9kts I think) and as long as the center is under low shear what happens further to the north isn't quite as important, indeed that shear may help to assist the outflow.

It may not weaken the storm strength wise but it will probably keep it from strengthening the next 24-48 hours...

[Stephanie]

Thanks RL3AO

Thats the GFS Ensambles.

and thanks to x-y-no for answering what that is.

HurricaneHunter914-
If the Rat remark was about me, can you please enlighten me on this because that would be a first for me. a 31 yr old mother of 2 girls (ages 5 & 8) that is concerned now that my house sits .5 miles from the ocean and .1 from the indian river on nothing but sand. i believe i have a right to being concerned. i do love it here though. if it was not sorry for the paranoia. i just tell my kids not to be rude or snide and that is the way that was read by me, if not i am sorry.

We did have an "incident" about an hour ago. I'm glad that HurricaneHunter did issue you an apology. Unfortunately, this time of the year we do get a lot of new members that aren't here to learn as you are.

Welcome aboard!

[chadtm80]

[Normandy]

Bertha is getting sheared a bit, you can see the cloud pattern of Bertha being elongated SW-NE. I think today is critical, because per the NHC's track Bertha should show some northerly component to her westward motion which has yet to occur.

[KWT]

As long as the center remains in low shear it should strengthen, CDO still looks good at the southern end though I agree the northern end is getting sheared. If the system gets more then 100 miles further north over the next 12-18hrs the higher shear may cause larger problems.

[vacanechaser]

Bertha is getting sheared a bit, you can see the cloud pattern of Bertha being elongated SW-NE. I think today is critical, because per the NHC's track Bertha should show some northerly component to her westward motion which has yet to occur.

very true.. she continues to move westward at a good clip... and the shear is there.. the cloud pattern is stretched out to the northeast now... lets see what this does to the the over all structure in a few hours...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HURAKAN]

[hial2]

Bertha is getting sheared a bit, you can see the cloud pattern of Bertha being elongated SW-NE. I think today is critical, because per the NHC's track Bertha should show some northerly component to her westward motion which has yet to occur.

The Storm2k cone of uncertainty keeps the possibility of a more or less wnw movement until tuesday 8:00 am...

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... page&size=

[storms in NC]

Correct me if I'm wrong. The first sign that Bertha may be starting to curve, would be it slowing down correct?

I have seen them turn with out slowing down.

[JonathanBelles]

has anyone heard if the Cape Verde Islands sustained any damage?

[KWT]

I think its holding steady right now, convection is still deep over the center, shear has increased again as it gets closer to the high region of shear but its not as bad as it is say nearer 20N. We shall see what the system does over the next few hours.

Not sure Fact I want to know as well to be honest.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think its holding steady right now, convection is still deep over the center, shear has increased again as it gets closer to the high region of shear but its not as bad as it is say nearer 20N. We shall see what the system does over the next few hours.

Not sure Fact I want to know as well to be honest.

The shear, according to the shear map posted earlier, is only about 10-20kts currently. However it is showing some slight effects on the storm, probably keeping it from intensifying to quickly. This is a result of the TUTT, which is now moving off to the NE, away from the system. In other words, it looks to me, like shear will exist around the storm for the next 12-18 hrs, then die off for the next 3 days or so, probably to around 10-15kts

[storms in NC]

vacanechaser
Wouldn't you think it could out run itself here. That might be the shearing that is going on here make her a bit elongated. She needs to slow down there a bit. I think if she keeps up this fast pace she will destroy her self. JMO here.