TC Bertha

[wxman57]

57,and what about 17.8n that ATCF has.

Better, but still seems a bit far south. I'm wondering what's going on at the NHC with regard to the position estimates. Earlier, Bertha's center was clearly on the southern side of the convection, so maybe they're assuming it's still there? Microwave imagery seems to suggest the convection has wrapped around to the south of the center. This would put the LLC north of 18N. Doesn't matter a whole lot at this point, I guess. Bertha will be approaching the weakness in the ridge by tomorrow, resulting in a slowing of its forward speed and a more WNW track.

[vegastar]

Don't you guys think there's an eye appearing near 18.5N 46W in the last frames of this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[RL3AO]

Don't you guys think there's an eye appearing near 18.5N 46W in the last frames of this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

You need an eyewall first. The last microwave image (4 hours ago) didn't show that.

[Stormavoider]

Question: When looking at the water vapor loop, an area of moisture is being pushed out in front of Burtha to the SW through otherwise very dry air. I don't recall seeing this in any other systems. What is causing this?

[KWT]

wxman, I know its hard to say but where about would be your best guess as to the NW/NNW turn will occur, I know it won't turn sharply but where should the NW start to kick in?

[wxman57]

wxman, I know its hard to say but where about would be your best guess as to the NW/NNW turn will occur, I know it won't turn sharply but where should the NW start to kick in?

Not for a while yet, and don't expect any sharp turns. Maybe Thursday. Until then, it'll stairstep a bit a it encounters weaknesses in the ridge to the north.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

17.8 probably is too far north. This is the AMSUB pass from 6 hours ago. Center was closer to 17N. If the center is at 17.8... this has started a turn to the WNW already

[Aric Dunn]

although this was from earlier the center is clearly at 17.4 to 17.5 . so a from 280 stand point a center fix from 17.4 to 17.8 is not likely in 6 hours.


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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/A ... W.63pc.jpg

[RL3AO]

We are overdue for new microwave images.

[KWT]

hmmm we have a bit of disagreement of the center, I wonder whether NHC will have recon sample the atmosphere around the system as well as doing its usual recon duties given the model split it would make sense?

Still theres some big disagrements about the center fix, Vis.imagery does seem to suggest closer to 18N but clearly microwave imagery shows it to the south of that point. The center fix is key to know given we need to know whether its already started the WNW track!

[JonathanBelles]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 070608b

Tropical Storm Bertha holds its own while being inflicted by shear. Rest of Atlantic clear.



Central Atlantic....Tropical Storm Bertha. Tropical Storm Bertha has changed little in the last 12 hours in the exception that shear has begun to increase around the storm. This shear which is around 10-25kts from the south and southwest. Cloud tops are being blown to the north and northeast. SST's are coming up moderately fast now, which will help Bertha to sustain herself, and to slowly intensify after getting through the shear. I think that Bertha is about 50-55mph with stronger gusts with much of the wind on the northern side. I do see Bertha getting to hurricane strength in the 2-3 day range.

The center of Bertha is around 17.6N 45.65W, my estimate. I expect movement to be around 275 or 280 for the next day or so with a very gradual northern component added in. I think that the track will be on the southern side of the NHC forecast.

Everyone from the northern Caribbean islands, to the Bahamas, the Carolinas, and Bermuda need to be watching this system and preparing just in case.

Fact789-Jonathan

[x-y-no]

Advisory 070608b

Remember to add the disclaimer, please.

[JonathanBelles]

Advisory 070608b

Remember to add the disclaimer, please.

Yea, I was just going back to add it. lol

[storms in NC]

From what I see that could be happening is the center of circulation is being left behine here. For it is going 22 MPH. So that might be trying to form in a new spot. But I may be wrong and you would let me know.

[x-y-no]

Advisory 070608b

Remember to add the disclaimer, please.

Yea, I was just going back to add it. lol

OK, thanks.

[Aric Dunn]

someone else watch the loop is that a bit of an eye feature trying to form .. i ruled out the obvious thing .. like maybe it was just temporary. but since it is still present and it coincides with last microwave images the center is quite visible..

or im going loopy

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

i swear it is.. i have been looking at the tropic for 15 years..

[KWT]

From what I see that could be happening is the center of circulation is being left behine here. For it is going 22 MPH. So that might be trying to form in a new spot. But I may be wrong and you would let me know.

Still looks like the circulation is well tucked into the center of convection at the moment and not being left behind. Its moving quickly but we've seen systems go just as fast if not faster before, I recall Dean as a cat-4/5 going nearly as fast.

[RL3AO]

someone else watch the loop is that a bit of an eye feature trying to form .. i ruled out the obvious thing .. like maybe it was just temporary. but since it is still present and it coincides with last microwave images the center is quite visible..

or im going loopy

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

i swear it is.. i have been looking at the tropic for 15 years..

I see what your seeing. I'm really waiting for the next microwave image. But they don't seem to be coming.

[JonathanBelles]

someone else watch the loop is that a bit of an eye feature trying to form .. i ruled out the obvious thing .. like maybe it was just temporary. but since it is still present and it coincides with last microwave images the center is quite visible..

or im going loopy

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

i swear it is.. i have been looking at the tropic for 15 years..

It looks too far north for me though. I think its just a shadow for right now, but if it persists or develops ill bite.

[Aric Dunn]

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