TC Bertha

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KWT
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#1861 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:01 pm

Well the SHIPS were started at 45kts but clearly thats going to be too low given the way it looks now, i'd guess they will go upto 55kts based on the eye forming on microwave. Bertha is starting to look real good now, so much for dieing out like some thought!
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#1862 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:02 pm

if you run this loop on medium zoom about 20 images you can see what appears to be a temporary wabble maybe even a little shift in the center but then a clear west motion there after...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
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#1863 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:05 pm

then add in the fact that outflow on the south side is becoming more impressive..
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#1864 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:06 pm

Its probably stair-stepping Aric, it does look like its jogged back to the west again that evident NW movement, you can really the LLC get dragged up and then the deep convection develop around it, last image really makes the eye feature look good with the sun starting to go down.

ps, all time classic tennis I think!
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#1865 Postby hiflyer » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:06 pm

Sunset in 15 mins looks like for the match....

I agree the NHC 5pm discussion is going to be interesting. Then again...Bertha has been 'not normal' for quite a bit already.
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#1866 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:09 pm

First time I see a discussion about cyclones and tennis. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Watching it right now.
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#1867 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:11 pm

Well thats true Bertha is pretty unusual storm to begin with, TS near Cape Verde, maybe a hurricane before 50W if this keeps up, which would no doubt be one of the furtherest easterly forming hurricanes in july IF it makes it to hurricane, looking very likely but no never can be certain.
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#1868 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:16 pm

Nadal won in a great match in five sets with rain delays.
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#1869 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:18 pm

1# It appears to be moving nearly due westward as of the last 3-4 frames.

2# There is a interesting feature on the visible, but that maybe just the midlevels being slightly sheared to the north of the lower levels?
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#1870 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:21 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Looks like she's trying to wrap and any recurve is not apparent right now. Looks pretty westerly.
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#1871 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:22 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Looks like she's trying to wrap and any recurve is not apparent right now. Looks pretty westerly.



I agree.
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#1872 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:23 pm

Bertha's resiliance was as good as Federer's and Nadal's
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#1873 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:25 pm

Yep Matt it does seem to have gone back to a more westerly direction after taking that WNW/NW track about 4-9hrs ago. As for the shear issue, its really tough to say, it looks pretty well co-located with the other levels but who knows!
Last edited by KWT on Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1874 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:26 pm

Image
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#1875 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:26 pm

latest image that came in.. the eye feature is becoming clearer .. maybe a hurricane at 5..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html
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#1876 Postby txwatcher91 » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:27 pm

:uarrow: That really looks like an eye trying to pop out, but could be some shear doing that.
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#1877 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:28 pm

Derek, yeah tell me about it, this system has gone against all the odds just to get here, 24.5C waters, some moderate SW shear, SAL being only a little bit to the north and west and yet here we are with what looks like a system well on the way to being a hurricane!

I'd guess probably 60kts now, can't be far from hurricane status I'd have thought.
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#1878 Postby Andrew92 » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:28 pm

Don't foresee a hurricane at 5, not even sure yet about 11. Persistence is the key, at least IMO.

If that eye feature lasts to tomorrow, I'll be convinced that this should be upgraded.

-Andrew92
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#1879 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:30 pm

Yep. Looks like a wrap right along 47/18

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#1880 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:30 pm

Image
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