TC Bertha

[storms in NC]

We desperately need a hurricane hunter!

"Gotta have more recon, baby!"

Yeah this definitely reminded me of "More cowbell!"

Anyway. I've been watching (amused) the discussion of whether this was an eye feature or not... Which I'm about 98% sure it is. Probably some relief for the Carolinas to see the eye reform to the North.

the Carolinas would take any thing at this time. But I don't think any one from the Carolinas was looking for it.

[KWT]

Yep also pretty clear that feature is now heading due west again, I'd guess maybe only a tad north of west, 275 once again though the big jump should mean the overall angle being closer to 290-295 over a 12hr period I'd guess.

Still wrapping around well, thats got to be close to being a hurricane looking at that loop, really beocming impressive and IMO probably close to being the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2008 season.

[wxman57]

The center id clearly up around 18.3N now, but I don't think it's a relocation. Convection began wrapping around the south side of the center last night as shear dropped off. 24hr motion is about 279-280 degrees. Not much different from the previous 24 hrs.

[senorpepr]

latest image that came in.. the eye feature is becoming clearer .. maybe a hurricane at 5..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

I highly doubt that.

I don't see much, if any, evidence that this is 65KT.

Microwave data wouldn't suggest a significant increase. I just did a quick Dvorak analysis on 02L and I'm in line with SAB and CIMSS-- T3.0 (45KT).

I don't foresee hurricane classification for at least 12-18 more hours...

[wxman57]

latest image that came in.. the eye feature is becoming clearer .. maybe a hurricane at 5..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

I highly doubt that.

I don't see much, if any, evidence that this is 65KT.

Microwave data wouldn't suggest a significant increase. I just did a quick Dvorak analysis on 02L and I'm in line with SAB and CIMSS-- T3.0 (45KT).

I don't foresee hurricane classification for at least 12-18 more hours...

Agreed, more likely now a realistic 45 kts. I think it's barely been hanging on to TS strength the past 24-36hours, maybe below TS strength at times with only 1 squall north of the center at times.

[Derek Ortt]

this is likely a T 3.0+ right now... in other words, 50KT

[txwatcher91]

this is likely a T 3.0+ right now... in other words, 50KT

That is what I was thinking, between 50-55kts and possibly 60-65 by later tonight if this organization continues.

[KWT]

senorpepr, this system has developed a weak eye and a eyewall is also forming looking at that microwave, I can't believe its only at 45kts looking this good, sure I don't think its a hurricane but its gotta be higher then 45kts now surely!

Last estimates by the agencies by the way came out before the eye popped.

Anyway wxman, could this just be a case of a system stair-stepping given its now on a westerly jog?

['CaneFreak]

im thinking 50 knots as well at 5..

[Aric Dunn]

latest image that came in.. the eye feature is becoming clearer .. maybe a hurricane at 5..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

I highly doubt that.

I don't see much, if any, evidence that this is 65KT.

Microwave data wouldn't suggest a significant increase. I just did a quick Dvorak analysis on 02L and I'm in line with SAB and CIMSS-- T3.0 (45KT).

I don't foresee hurricane classification for at least 12-18 more hours...

if not at 5 or them at least mentioning that it intensified .. by 11 i would say so if the current trend continues and a eye clears out they will have no choice.. \

['CaneFreak]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Also...do an overlay of the forecast points on this map and you will see that the center is now north of the NHC's forecast points....again the plot just keeps on thickening...

[KWT]

Yep its well north though the longer this westerly jog continues the less this is going to be the case, we are going to have to keep a close eye on Bertha looks like we've got a stair-stepper!

[Aric Dunn]

i think they are re-writing the advisory and disscusion..

[Aric Dunn]

i think we have a hurricane///

[Squarethecircle]

Not yet, the full eye and eyewall is not a clear feature on IR.

[HURAKAN]

Convection firing around "the eye"!!!

[Weatherfreak000]

Not quite, maybe tomorrow morning I think. The thing only just recently was looking like it was completely exposed...to hurricane?

[RL3AO]

I say 55kts.

[MiamiensisWx]

The suspense builds...

My guess is 50-55 kt at the advisory.

The lack of the advisory and the long wait definitely indicates the NHC is making changes to the package.

[Thunder44]

i think we have a hurricane///

That's even more recent. More thunderstorms firing around the "center". This is certainly stronger than 45kts.