TC Bertha

[HURAKAN]

Bertha is moving over warmer waters, shear is low, and we should see an increase in convection by the morning hours. I think we may have a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon or night.

[senorpepr]

BERTHA STRENGTHENING...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE

BERTHA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Nothing new, it was already forecast to become a hurricane in a day or two.

Correct, I just wanted to get the full quote in. "Could become a hurricane," is a little misleading, especially from after several are already calling this a hurricane.

[MiamiensisWx]

I would start stocking up on supplies in Bermuda; if it's not for Bertha, it's for the season and future seasons in general!

Residents undoubtedly harbor vivid recollections of Fabian in 2003.

[Aric Dunn]

WNW movement is the most important tidbit from this advisory in regards to the CONUS and Bermuda threat, in my view. If this continues, we will likely observe a recurvature off the Southeast and a higher threat to Bermuda.

not surprised .. since its an average from motion from the previous advisory. that a pretty good wobble north earlier.

[senorpepr]

Bertha is moving over warmer waters, shear is low, and we should see an increase in convection by the morning hours. I think we may have a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon or night.

I think that may be a little misleading, especially the part about water temperature. Water temperatures under Bertha won't significantly change for the next few days, and by the time they do increase, shear also increases. So I think that point is moot.

I'm not saying Bertha won't strengthen in the interrim, but water temperatures aren't a big player.

[KWT]

Hmmm track looks a little close for comfort for Bermuda, only a small shift east and thats a real threat. Anyway looks like they've gone down the middle of the models, maybe slightly favoring the easterly models in terms of track anyway.

I said in the model thread that I think it will reach 67W at 32N so my path is close to the pros current path.

[MiamiensisWx]

Yeah went with 50kts, if it keeps organising like it is though its going to be a hurricane sooner rather then later I reckon. I'd put the center a touch higher in latitude as well wxman57 but its not a huge deal really.

I think this will only continue to get better organised from now on given the waters its underneath are only going to increase, going to get higher and higher heat content from now on.

WNW is just a mean of the NW track taken earlier and the slight bend back to the west we've just seen recently.

I don't know; recent observations of visibles apparently suggest that the movement is not due west. It looks north of due west at this time.

CONUS (read: Carolinas) can breathe much easier if this is a trend.

[PTrackerLA]

Yep, starting to appear to be primarily a Bermuda threat. She's strengthening and I doubt we'll see a due West movement again.

[RL3AO]

Yep, starting to appear to be primarily a Bermuda threat. She's strengthening and I doubt we'll see a due West movement again.

IMO, its pretty much moving due west right now. Maybe 275 at the most.

[deltadog03]

50 kts now 18.1N/47W. Still a little too far south an estimate, perhaps, but the storm may be tilted.

I agree on the tilting....My best guess is thats more than likely what it is. Earlier this morning I did see low level clouds spinning well south of the convection, now that has changed a bit, but still seems a little tilted.

[KWT]

Hmmm its not quite due west but its close enough looking at the loop, I'd guess 3hr mean of something close to 275 though I don't know if anyone with a higher resolution Sat.imagery could give a better idea?

As for SST's, SHIPS had the waters at 26.4 for this time, by the time the shear rises its upto high 27's, at least a full 1C higher, maybe not massive but enough to make a fair difference I believe.

[hial2]

I would start stocking up on supplies in Bermuda; if it's not for Bertha, it's for the season and future seasons in general!Residents undoubtedly harbor vivid recollections of Fabian in 2003.

Off topic but just thinking about supplies..In May 24 2008,gasoline was $7.72/gallon in Bermuda..





















'..

[Aric Dunn]

Yep, starting to appear to be primarily a Bermuda threat. She's strengthening and I doubt we'll see a due West movement again.

IMO, its pretty much moving due west right now. Maybe 275 at the most.

i imagine the the 285 motion is the average motion since the last advisory .. and since it wobbled for a couple hours the average motion is 285.. but as of now it appears west i agree..

[Extremeweatherguy]

I personally am seeing a nearly due westward motion on the latest visible loop.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Steering currents seem to confirm that idea as well.. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

[OuterBanker]

Yes, and even JB is hopping on the recurve solution. Which is very good for the SEUS. Not only the obvious miss but the hype. You see, even a suggestion of a NC landfall on a national level can ruin business here. People start canceling reservations, etc. Tropical systems can have a economic impact without ever coming near.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree with the 60 mph in this advisory. The system is clearly getting its act together but is still fighting shear, as the NHC mentioned Bertha is tilted slightly. The eye feature is definitely impressive, but Bertha needs to get out of the light shear it's currently in if it wants to become a hurricane.

That said, I think the shear over the next couple days will lessen and Bertha will remain tenacious enough to intensify. I predict Bertha to continue west to west-northwest through Tuesday and become a hurricane either late tomorrow night or Tuesday morning. At this time I will only call for Bertha to be a C1 because I'm not sure what the shear will look like after Tuesday, but if it's weak enough she could become a C2 as she likely turns more northwest down the road.

-Andrew92

[Javlin]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

Is the Low thats suppose to have the effect on Bertha is what is over W.Virginia in the loop?Looks like a West movement or the 275' for a while esp. if the forward motion of 20+mph continues.I haven't had a Cane interest me this much since KATRINA

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yes, and even JB is hopping on the recurve solution. Which is very good for the SEUS. Not only the obvious miss but the hype. You see, even a suggestion of a NC landfall on a national level can ruin business here. People start canceling reservations, etc. Tropical systems can have a economic impact without ever coming near.

Not quite. Actually JB stated in his 3:30pm discussion that he thinks Bertha will get into the Bermuda triangle region and then either A) Recurve or B) Stall and then gradually move back west toward the SE United States. Based on the very first line of the 3:30pm post, I believe he is still favoring option B.

[KWT]

This being north of the track isn't a great thing really because I think it really does bring Bermuda into the game, a track like the previous NHC would have still been enough for it to have lifted out to the north but would have not been a threat to Bermuda, this one looking at things could be a real threat to that island.

We will have to see how long the 275-280 track continues for but its a giood deal north of the track, going to have to get to about 50W at this latitude before its back inline.

[B'hamBlazer]

Yes, and even JB is hopping on the recurve solution. Which is very good for the SEUS. Not only the obvious miss but the hype. You see, even a suggestion of a NC landfall on a national level can ruin business here. People start canceling reservations, etc. Tropical systems can have a economic impact without ever coming near.

For those in the tourism industry, a weak hurricane might be bad news. But for those in agriculture or just the average person trying to keep their grass alive, a tropical storm or weak hurricane would be welcome news. It would appear to me at this point, however, that this won't come close enough to the US to be an issue except for shipping interests or possibly a glancing blow by some feeder bands on the extreme east coast.