TC Bertha

[Andrew92]

I've never said Bertha would be a "fish." In fact, I do think Bermuda needs to watch out for Bertha.

And I still think the East Coast needs to watch this, even though I do think she ultimately will miss the US.

-Andrew92

[HURAKAN]

Debby became a hurricane in 2000 while experiencing moderate to strong shear. Bertha has been historic in many areas and I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a hurricane by tomorrow if it its current rate of organization continues.

[KWT]

Yep I agree Andrew92, chances ar eit won't be a threat to mainland USA now but there is still enough uncertainty to keep a very close eye on Bertha, esp further to the NE and obviously bermuda needs to watch out.

Wish we had recon now to be honest would be so interesting!

[Aric Dunn]

LOL another new image.....

im not even going to say it..

[HURAKAN]

[brunota2003]

I'll say it for you, Aric. That LOOKS like a Hurricane.

[RL3AO]

First time you can clearly see the eye in IR.

[Aric Dunn]

I'll say it for you, Aric. That LOOKS like a Hurricane.

there you go..

ill say this .. i guess there is nothing wrong with being conservative out in the middle of the atlantic..

[KWT]

Hmmm that microwave pass is really impressive, closed eyewall and actually pretty intense on the western side as well, IR doesn't look quite as impressive mind you as the eye isn't wrapped on the eastern side. I'd guess center between 18.3-18.4 now.

[Andrew92]

Looks impressive....but she's tilted. My guess is Bertha's been at least kinda tilted for the last 24 hours, which may partially explain why it didn't really intensify much during the time frame.

If I'm right, if she gets out of the shear, Bertha will probably have a better chance of being more organized from the lower levels to the upper levels, and thus have a better chance of intensifying further.

Kinda reminds me of Chris in 2006, except this is the opposite. Chris ran into lots of heavy shear which first tilted the circulation so that it appeared organized but wasn't. But Bertha appears to be trying to get out of the shear that's been tilting it and thus should intensify slowly over the next couple days.

-Andrew92

[KBBOCA]

Actually JB stated in his 3:30pm discussion that he thinks Bertha will get into the Bermuda triangle region and then either A) Recurve or B) Stall and then gradually move back west toward the SE United States. Based on the very first line of the 3:30pm post, I believe he is still favoring option B.

Yeah, well of course JB would still favor option B. Otherwise he's gonna look like an idiot for that 7-10 day cone he hyped showing a Carolina landfall. He wants to be proved right. I'll stop now before I get off on a rant.

[senorpepr]

Yep, starting to appear to be primarily a Bermuda threat. She's strengthening and I doubt we'll see a due West movement again.

IMO, its pretty much moving due west right now. Maybe 275 at the most.

i imagine the the 285 motion is the average motion since the last advisory .. and since it wobbled for a couple hours the average motion is 285.. but as of now it appears west i agree..

I just ran a program here at work and yielded the following result:

Between the 1645 and 2015Z images, the mean direction was 284.2° with a forward speed of 19.9KT

"PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT"

Not too shabby...

[brunota2003]

Hmmm that microwave pass is really impressive, closed eyewall and actually pretty intense on the western side as well, IR doesn't look quite as impressive mind you as the eye isn't wrapped on the eastern side. I'd guess center between 18.3-18.4 now.

And the microwave image fits in nicely with the eastern side being open on the IR.

[KWT]

senorpepr would it be at all possible to do the same from say 17.15-20.15, see if its any more westerly then the longer time period mean of 284 degrees?

[Aric Dunn]

senorpepr would it be at all possible to do the same from say 17.15-20.15, see if its any more westerly then the longer time period mean of 284 degrees?

not only that what center fixes are you using..

[senorpepr]

senorpepr would it be at all possible to do the same from say 17.15-20.15, see if its any more westerly then the longer time period mean of 284 degrees?

It doesn't change the numbers much. Right around 284° with that time. Yeah, there were three frames that averaged around 270°, but then there were a couple frames that were closer toward 300°.

[KWT]

Ok so in other words its stair-stepping, 285 degrees is actually pretty much bang on the GFDL forecast as it happens, it forecasted 286 degrees so that does give a little confidence to that forecast.

[jrod]

I will be surprised if Bertha is not a hurricane this time tomorrow. With the information out there it appears to me that Bertha will only be a swell maker for the EC, which is great for guys like myself and Aric. I do know how fast the forecast can change with better data and unexpected synoptics. I just want to wax up my board later this week with no threat of a landfall anywhere.

[HurricaneHunter914]

This may be a dumb question, but what does "tilted" mean?

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like that ridge is holding pretty steady through 72 hours:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif