TC Bertha

[Aric Dunn]

She is still stacking herself apparantly, and yes aric I think the punter is going to miss.

we are all going to die!!! lol im just sitting back a watching everyone go back and forth.. its quite funny

[senorpepr]

I've been noticing the system elongating SW to NE, most notibly on microwave. Also, it appears dry air is being ingested into the system.

Mike,

I dont see the elongation of the core region

I do see the outflow becoming slight better defined.

That siad, the circulation is not as organized as we all thought based upon the QS pass

The latest F-16 shot doesn't show it, but F-17 just before it and the previous F-16 shot shows a slightly elongated central region (not the core, or "eye", but the central region of the storm). Then again, that could be because of the tilting.

As for the drier air, that's wraping around the northeast quad of the center. Derek, what is your thoughts on intensity based on satellite presentation? We just did a rough guess here and are leaning more toward the T3.5 that SAB is saying. 55KT for the 03Z advisory?

[senorpepr]

As for the drier air, that's wraping around the northeast quad of the center. Derek, what is your thoughts on intensity based on satellite presentation? We just did a rough guess here and are leaning more toward the T3.5 that SAB is saying. 55KT for the 03Z advisory?

Now that I see the 00Z BT was updated w/ 55KT and 994 hPa

[senorpepr]

Does anyone think Recon might move up its surveillance schedule to Monday instead of Tuesday? My hunch is yes.

My hunch is no. Flight crew needs 24 hours of "rest" before a mission. (I'm not sure if NOAA falls under the same guidance as AFRES, but I still don't see a Monday mission.)

[MiamiensisWx]

I believe QuikSCAT should not be utilized as the sole method and standard for detecting a LLC associated with a well developed TC. TRMM scans and NRL data clearly indicate a closed low level circulation.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/ATL/02L.BERTHA/tc_ssmis/composite/20080706.2226.f16.x.composite.02LBERTHA.45kts-1000mb-178N-462W.82pc.jpg

The scan on the lower left corner is particularly supportive of my view.

[brunota2003]

18.4N and 48.1W for the ATCF? Hmm

[Derek Ortt]

The latest F-16 shot doesn't show it, but F-17 just before it and the previous F-16 shot shows a slightly elongated central region (not the core, or "eye", but the central region of the storm). Then again, that could be because of the tilting.

As for the drier air, that's wraping around the northeast quad of the center. Derek, what is your thoughts on intensity based on satellite presentation? We just did a rough guess here and are leaning more toward the T3.5 that SAB is saying. 55KT for the 03Z advisory?

on sat, a 3.5, maybe a 3.5+. Then again, I may be tracking an MLC

[cpdaman]

any promet's are quikscat's known to be off occasionally (possibly if it is here?) in a manner that may not pick up winds in SW or SE side of circulation?

(edit) thank you wxman57

[Thunder44]

I believe QuikSCAT should not be utilized as the sole method and standard for detecting a LLC associated with a well developed TC. TRMM scans and NRL data clearly indicate a closed low level circulation.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/ATL/02L.BERTHA/tc_ssmis/composite/20080706.2226.f16.x.composite.02LBERTHA.45kts-1000mb-178N-462W.82pc.jpg

The scan on the lower left corner is particularly supportive of my view.

I don't disagree. It's looks very impressive on microwave imagery. It's just that it's not showing the same thing on the QS, concerns me.

[wxman57]

Wow...tonights QS pass is a tad off it's rocker or something!

QS can't see through rain, so it does a poor job at finding the center of better-organized storms many times. It couldn't locate Katrina's center very well when Katrina was a cat 5 with a giant eye.

[tolakram]

00:15 - further north.

Please note the time of the pic if you want to dispute it.

Question, the yellow circle in this image, is that predicted position or some analysis of the position of the LLC?

Archived images here:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL022008

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow...tonights QS pass is a tad off it's rocker or something!

QS can't see through rain, so it does a poor job at finding the center of better-organized storms many times. It couldn't locate Katrina's center very well when Katrina was a cat 5 with a giant eye.

Thanks wxman57, on the other hand the 85h can. So yes there is a LLC.

[Mecklenburg]

bertha kinda reminds me of hurricane Irene in 2005... same track, same strength at first and very persisitent amidst the hostile environment

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[HURAKAN]

Irene was a real fighter. Bertha is having a good time compared to Irene.

[Mecklenburg]

but soon she will encounter heavy shear as she approach north of hispaniola, like what the NHC says...

[cycloneye]

The most shear value will be 24kts at 84 hours but drops bigtime after that.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KTS)       12     9    10    11    15    17    11    20    20    24     9     4     3

[CourierPR]

but soon she will encounter heavy shear as she approach north of hispaniola, like what the NHC says...

Doesn't the model consenus show the turn taking place before it reaches Hispaniola?

[tolakram]

The most shear value will be 24kts at 84 hours but drops bigtime after that.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KTS)       12     9    10    11    15    17    11    20    20    24     9     4     3

I'm having a hard time believing it.



Maybe it will get out of the way, but it looks to me like Bertha will be in 30+ knots shear in 24 hours or so.

[Chacor]

00:15 - further north.

Please note the time of the pic if you want to dispute it.

Question, the yellow circle in this image, is that predicted position or some analysis of the position of the LLC?

Archived images here:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL022008

I might and probably am wrong, but I think it's the 34/50 kt wind radii. Don't take my word on it though.

[cycloneye]

tolakram,that was the 00:00 UTC SHIP forecast that was posted at the models thread.